Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Joined: Aug 03, 2007 Posts: 4590 Location: Boston Suburbs
Posted: Sat Aug 09, 2008 6:57 pm Post subject: Re: Russia-Georgia-Ossetia War
seahorse wrote:
Makes me think of something Sylvestor Stallone said in an interview. Yes, I'm getting ready to quote Stallone. He said "millions of years of human evolution shows one thing, that peace is an accident." How true. I don't know if that's an original quote, but I heard it from him.
Posted: Sat Aug 09, 2008 7:08 pm Post subject: Re: Russia-Georgia-Ossetia War
I am heavily invested in gold mining and energy stocks, but I am going to go out on a limb and say that oil will drop in dollars on Monday precipitously.
Read somewhere on the OilDrum comments section a link that Bush recently convinced a bunch of big international investors to buy a huge amount of US gov't debt. So there is one factor.
But the other one is that, in times of serious unpredictable events like this, there is an initial flight to the dollar and dollar investments. In the long term that may not be the best bet, but I am talking real, real long term.
So I predict oil will continue to fall tomorrow, not based on any fundamentals, but only the added strength that this will give the dollar.
Dollar index may be as high as 80 by Monday's close of the market.
I think a lot of people start from the viewpoint of developing some universal thesis and they work backwards to try to make that thesis apply to all events in history regardless of whether they need to jam a square peg into a round hole or not. _________________ http://doomsteaddiary.blogspot.com/
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 4338 Location: Graceland
Posted: Sat Aug 09, 2008 7:16 pm Post subject: Re: Russia-Georgia-Ossetia War
madrid wrote:
I am heavily invested in gold mining and energy stocks, but I am going to go out on a limb and say that oil will drop in dollars on Monday precipitously.
Read somewhere on the OilDrum comments section a link that Bush recently convinced a bunch of big international investors to buy a huge amount of US gov't debt. So there is one factor.
But the other one is that, in times of serious unpredictable events like this, there is an initial flight to the dollar and dollar investments. In the long term that may not be the best bet, but I am talking real, real long term.
So I predict oil will continue to fall tomorrow, not based on any fundamentals, but only the added strength that this will give the dollar.
Dollar index may be as high as 80 by Monday's close of the market.
I've got this image in my mind of rats jumping from a quickly sinking ship to a slowly sinking ship.
I'm glad I don't have to make a living predicting markets, because this doesn't make any sense at all.
I'm reminded of the idea that what really sank the Soviet Union was a conspiracy between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. to flood the market with oil just as the Soviet Union had sunk huge investments into production that was not profitable at the post-1980s glut prices.
Maybe Russia is making sure no mysterious world oil glut shows up this time around.
So many moving parts to this thing. _________________
Posted: Sat Aug 09, 2008 7:25 pm Post subject: Re: Georgia, oil and Russia
My question is does the price of oil IN DOLLARS go up or down on Monday as a result of this tragedy.
I am going to go out on a limb and argue that oil prices will go up in real terms but go down IN DOLLARS on Monday, because investors buy dollars as a safe haven during a time of crisis like this. The dollar index will therefore be up to 80 by tomorrow afternoon, which will make oil (and gold) plumet.
Could people give their views on the direction the oil will take on Monday as a result of this tragedy?
Posted: Sat Aug 09, 2008 7:30 pm Post subject: Re: Russia-Georgia-Ossetia War
BigTex, what is your prediction of the price of oil on Monday?
Up or down.
One other possibility is that oil goes up and gold goes down-- that is that price of oil goes up in dollar terms but the dollar also gets stronger so the price of gold continues to fall.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sat Aug 09, 2008 7:38 pm Post subject: Re: Russia-Georgia-Ossetia War
Quote:
Russian Warships Steam Toward Georgia as Conflict Escalates
By Paul Abelsky and Alex Nicholson
Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Russia sent warships from the Black Sea fleet toward Georgia as it stepped up its conflict with the former Soviet republic over the separatist South Ossetia region.
The ships included a vessel based in Sebastopol and four others from Novorossiysk, Komsomolskaya Pravda reported, without saying where it got the information. Georgian Economy Minister Eka Sharashidze said a ship carrying grain to the Georgian port of Poti was turned away by a Russian warship, suggesting an economic blockade may be under way.
``Russia has show itself capable of crossing every line in this conflict,'' Sharashidze said in a telephone interview late yesterday from Tbilisi, the Georgian capital.
Russian jets crossed the border every 15 minutes to attack military and civilian targets in as many as six locations simultaneously, Georgian Security Council Secretary Kakha Lomaia said. Russia's actions amounted to ``full-scale war,'' he said.
bloomberg _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Sat Aug 09, 2008 7:48 pm Post subject: Re: Russia-Georgia-Ossetia War
We will see. You would expect oil and gold to up in these circumstances, DantesPeak, but the market has been reacting in a very bizarre way over the past month.
It will be interesting to check back here on Monday night to see who was right.
Posted: Sat Aug 09, 2008 7:52 pm Post subject: Re: Russia-Georgia-Ossetia War
DantesPeak wrote:
Quote:
Russian Warships Steam Toward Georgia as Conflict Escalates
By Paul Abelsky and Alex Nicholson
Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Russia sent warships from the Black Sea fleet toward Georgia as it stepped up its conflict with the former Soviet republic over the separatist South Ossetia region.
The ships included a vessel based in Sebastopol and four others from Novorossiysk, Komsomolskaya Pravda reported, without saying where it got the information. Georgian Economy Minister Eka Sharashidze said a ship carrying grain to the Georgian port of Poti was turned away by a Russian warship, suggesting an economic blockade may be under way.
``Russia has show itself capable of crossing every line in this conflict,'' Sharashidze said in a telephone interview late yesterday from Tbilisi, the Georgian capital.
Russian jets crossed the border every 15 minutes to attack military and civilian targets in as many as six locations simultaneously, Georgian Security Council Secretary Kakha Lomaia said. Russia's actions amounted to ``full-scale war,'' he said.
Joined: Aug 09, 2008 Posts: 46 Location: Pittsburgh
Posted: Sat Aug 09, 2008 7:56 pm Post subject: Re: Good Website To Track Russia-Georgia War News
BigTex - I'm not sure about the neutrality of Kommersant. During conflicts, I try to stay clear of news sources from any party directly involved (when possible). Russian media in general has a poor track record, just ask Anna Politkovskaya... if she hadn't been murdered.
Joined: Dec 18, 2004 Posts: 4994 Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
Posted: Sat Aug 09, 2008 8:06 pm Post subject: Re: Russia-Georgia-Ossetia War
madrid wrote:
We will see. You would expect oil and gold to up in these circumstances, DantesPeak, but the market has been reacting in a very bizarre way over the past month.
It will be interesting to check back here on Monday night to see who was right.
Oil and gold will definitely go up Monday. No question about it.
This conflict isn't (yet) destabilizing enough to cause the move of a substantial amount of cash into the dollar thereby strengthening the greenback enough to offset the indefinite loss of a mbpd. Or more. It's all supply and demand at this point and supply just took a big hit!
We'll know for sure when the energy market opens in about 20 hours, but I'm expecting at minimum a jump to $125. _________________ Got Dharma?
Joined: Aug 26, 2005 Posts: 1009 Location: "Mad as Hell !"
Posted: Sat Aug 09, 2008 8:10 pm Post subject: Re: Russia-Georgia-Ossetia War
BigTex wrote:
China has got to be pissed about all of this.
We're going to spend the next few days (weeks/months) wringing our hands and the markets are going to be all over the place (maybe), and we won't be watching the Olympics on NBC.
This timing is crazy.
I'm also still trying to figure out why gold and oil were dropping as this thing was starting on Friday.
Maybe not so crazy, for mean while back in the US, expect the presidential hopeful, John McCain to make some hay with this crisis; as the only experienced candidate to protect US interests in an uncertain world.
With gold, oil dropping and stocks rising there is less pressure on Joe Six Packs pocket book and more attention can be swung to security concerns.
Look for some new commercials and conservative buzz about this. _________________ The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
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