Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Good read. Bringing up the part about old people being blamed is a good point. I think that people with SUVs will be getting some unwelcome guests in the form of burning lead once there are severe fuel problems. But as soon as the rabble force people to stop driving their monstrous cars, the only place to blame would be old people. I can't imagine how much fun old SUV owners will be having in the foreseeable future.
Be advised that because the question is so vague, there is a large margin of error for these figures!
Moreover, that's just for the panel. What about the rest of the system - batteries, grid, transmission lines, etc.?
The other study is interesting, but not really applicable to a post-peak world. The energy costs they give all benefit from the economies of scale, and from the global economy. For example, the cost of transporting goods to the factory is not included. We don't produce enough aluminum to meet our needs, and so import it from Russia. That may not be so easy in the post-peak world.
Solar panels are just too complex, I suspect. They may be worth it now, when we have a global economy at our fingertips, but a real solution is going to have to be simpler. Something you can manufacture in your own community, without a huge work force.
The point of Heinberg's letter is not to what degree solar panels will be used in the future!
I think the letter paints a pretty good picture of what to expect in the next 50-100 years.
As every "big shot" in the Peak Oil community seems to agree: the alternatives will help. To what degree may be up for debate. But even in the absolute best case scenario, they can't come close to producing the easy and cheap energy producec by fossil fuels.
Thus the "breakdown" of the global casino to the village flea market is highly likely.
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