Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 11:01 am Post subject: Re: Russia Georgia Ossetia Alkhazia Ukraine War
phaeryen wrote:
It just makes me happy that there are trained professional brains maneuvering the armies. If the most powerful armies of the world were run by some of you armchair generals, there probably would have been a nuclear war decades before I was born.
i'd like to remind you that some of our professional generals, if left to their own devices, i.e., lack of civilian control, would have precipitated nuclear war. pulling just one example from the air, why do you think general mcarthur was canned?
Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 11:02 am Post subject: Re: Russia Georgia Ossetia Alkhazia Ukraine War
AlexdeLarge wrote
Quote:
US interest is that the oil flows and is sold at market prices. Its not about cutting it off to China or anyone else.
...well, despite this thread being about Russia and Georgia, I suggest you read either of Michael Klare's 2 latest books, Oil and Blood or his newest book, Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet.
As Klare and other informed commentators have long noted about official US policy, since 2001 the Bush/Cheney administration has morphed the US military into a dedicated military-energy strategem with a single overarching goal above all else - strategic control over the world's largest remaining hydrocarbons and/or the pipelines/transit routes of these hydrocarbons. They want to control the flow of oil and gas, with the underlining military force, evert influence military or otherwise to cut-off hydrocarbon energy flows to other competing nation states, whether it be Japan, the EU, China, India, or all of the above.
In fact, this was self-evident to most unbiased observers at least 5 years ago. For example, here's excerpts from an Indian economic think tank article from November/December 2002, well before the Iraq War started or the "Rose Revolution" in Georgia:
Real Reasons for the US Invasion:
Military Solution to an Economic Crisis
Indeed the US has taken the contrary course. It plans to reverse the various trends mentioned above by seizing the world’s richest oil-producing regions. This it deems necessary for three related reasons.
1. Securing US supplies: First, the US itself is increasingly dependent on oil imports—already a little over half its daily consumption of 20 million barrels is imported. It imports its oil from a variety of sources—Canada, Venezuela, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, even Iraq. But its own production is falling, and will continue to fall steadily, even as its consumption continues to grow. In future, inevitably, it will become increasingly dependent on oil from west Asia-north Africa—a region where the masses of ordinary people despise the US, where three of the leading oil producers (Iraq, Iran and Libya) are professedly anti-American, and the others (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates) are in danger of being toppled by anti-American forces. The US of course doing its best to tie up or seize supplies from other regions—west Africa, northern Latin America, the Caspian region. And yet the US cannot escape the simple arithmetic:
“The US Department of Energy and the International Energy Agency both project that global oil demand could grow from the current 77 million barrels a day (mbd) to 120 mbd in 20 years, driven by the US and the emerging markets of south and east Asia. The agencies assume that most of the supply required to meet this demand must come from OPEC, whose production is expected to jump from 28 mbd in 1998 to 60 mbd in 2020. Virtually all of this increase would come from the Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia.
...
Given its growing dependence on oil imports, the US cannot afford to allow the oil producing regions to be under the influence of any other power, or independent.1
...and here's my area of reseach...
Quote:
2. Maintaining dollar hegemony: Secondly, if other imperialist powers were able to displace US dominance in the region, the dollar would be dealt a severe blow. The pressure for switching to the euro would become irresistible and would ring the death knell of dollar supremacy. On the other hand, complete US control of oil would preserve the rule of the dollar (not only would oil producers continue to use the dollar for their international trade, but the dollar’s international standing would rise) and hurt the credibility of the euro.
....
However, American firms were shut out of Iran and Iraq by their own government’s sanctions; French, Russian and Chinese firms got the contracts instead. Chavez’s increasing assertiveness threatens to shut American firms out of Venezuela as well. The Saudi deal—which the American firms were to lead—stands cancelled, apparently because of the Saudi government’s fear of public resentment. Thus, if it does not invade the west Asian region, the US stands to lose dollar hegemony by losing control of the major oil field development projects in the next decade.
...and finally, no one should doubt the ultimate aims of the US whether it be in Iraq/Iran, West Africa, or why it bothers to install pro-US puppets in Georgia (2003) and Ukraine (2004), coincedentally near the BTU pipeline...
Quote:
3. Oil as a weapon: Thirdly, direct American control of oil would render potential challengers for world or regional supremacy (Europe’s imperialist powers, Japan and China) dependent on the US. It is clear the US is following this policy:
As mentioned above, French, Russian and Chinese firms will get evicted from Iran and Iraq once the US troops enter.{...that is precisely what happened...all thanks to neocon strategy to keep other industrialized powers from gaining direct access to ME oil, or from threatening the petrodollar system that props up the debt addicted empire of bases...}
The US has gone to great lengths to frustrate alternatives to its Baku-Ceyhan pipeline (which is to run from the Caspian through Turkey to the Mediterranean). With the US invasion of Afghanistan, the US has set up a chain of military bases in Central and South Asia—Pakistan, Afghanistan, Kyrgystan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, with military advisers in Georgia as well.
The US is about to send two battalions of Marines to help suppress the insurgency in Colombia; it is training a new brigade to protect Occidental Petroleum’s pipeline in that country. At the same time it is actively organising the overthrow of the elected Chavez government in Venezuela.{see April 2002 CIA coup attempt...}
...now turning to China, the US strategic goal was, and still is, quite clear...despite the lack of overt comments by Cheney...
Quote:
A major consideration in the US’s great oil grab is its desire to check China. In coming years, China, like the US, will become a major importer of oil and gas: it is projected to import 10 million barrels a day by 2030—more than eight per cent of world oil demand. (The US currently imports a little over 10 million barrels of its daily requirement of 20 million barrels.) As China attempts to arrange its future oil supplies, it finds itself checked at each point by the US:{see Unocal fiasco circa 2005...}
...and I liked this quote so much, I used it in my book....
Quote:
The thrust is clear: Once it has seized the oil wells of west Asia, the US will determine not only which firms would bag the deals, not only the currency in which oil trade would be denominated, not only the price of oil on the international market, but even the destination of the oil.
...ergo, the conflict between Russia and Georgia circa Aug 2008 is deeply related to this grandious US geostrategy, and is more or less blow back from the US-funded and orchestrated "Rose Revolution" of 2003. That was undertaken so the US could have "their man in Georgia," (including lots of military hardware, training and NATO expansion) and thus some strategic influence over the BTU pipeline. Russia/Putin would obviously like to have their own puppet in Georgia, which appears to be the ultimate goal of their current military expedition.
Who will prevail? Only time will tell, but me thinks one should not be so naive about US geostratgy, or the underlying reasons for the ongoing tragedy in Georgia.
Last edited by Petrodollar on Mon Aug 11, 2008 1:24 pm; edited 5 times in total
Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 11:13 am Post subject: Re: Russia Georgia Ossetia Alkhazia Ukraine War
Petrodollar wrote:
Who will prevail? Only time will tell, but me thinks one should not be so naive about US geostratgy, or the underlying reasons for the ongoing tragedy in Georgia.
thanx for the excellent post! i am very interested in all the points you have touched. since i feel you have a very detailed understanding of the grand strategy that the US is operating under, i'd like to ask, what do you think the US response will be to having the russians throw a wrench into its works?
also, how do you account for the US declarations that it's willing to withdraw from iraq within the next few years?
Joined: Jul 04, 2008 Posts: 242 Location: Europe: European Historian
Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 11:15 am Post subject: Re: Russia Georgia Ossetia Alkhazia Ukraine War
Well John McCain is beating the war drums warning of 'serve' consequences...I just wonder what he means by that?? An energy embargo against EU?? Oil going to 500 USD BBL?? To teach those Russians?
Well All I know is the USA is in the last minute of the 4th quarter and a million suberbias behind. Come 10 years from now..The USA will be where the USSR was in 1991.
Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 11:22 am Post subject: Re: Russia Georgia Ossetia Alkhazia Ukraine War
nobodypanic wrote:
phaeryen wrote:
It just makes me happy that there are trained professional brains maneuvering the armies. If the most powerful armies of the world were run by some of you armchair generals, there probably would have been a nuclear war decades before I was born.
i'd like to remind you that some of our professional generals, if left to their own devices, i.e., lack of civilian control, would have precipitated nuclear war. pulling just one example from the air, why do you think general mcarthur was canned?
Sure. Then you have great civilian minds like f.ex. Kissinger, who, if he would have been given control of the system, would have probably launched every possible missile in the US arsenal in two weeks time if given the chance, nuclear or not.
What was your point? Mine was to comment on the quality of armchair generals on the internet. And to sigh a relief that they do not have the means to, for example, make the US send ground troops and enter the war.
Joined: Apr 09, 2007 Posts: 6376 Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 11:28 am Post subject: Re: Russia Georgia Ossetia Alkhazia Ukraine War
GeneralGreen wrote:
Well All I know is the USA is in the last minute of the 4th quarter and a million suberbias behind. Come 10 years from now..The USA will be where the USSR was in 1991.
And 10 years from now the Russians will once again be hated occupiers in Tbilsi, with their economy going on the skids as their oil production precipitously declines.....
---it seems the more things change the more they stay the same.
Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 11:28 am Post subject: Re: Russia Georgia Ossetia Alkhazia Ukraine War
phaeryen wrote:
nobodypanic wrote:
phaeryen wrote:
It just makes me happy that there are trained professional brains maneuvering the armies. If the most powerful armies of the world were run by some of you armchair generals, there probably would have been a nuclear war decades before I was born.
i'd like to remind you that some of our professional generals, if left to their own devices, i.e., lack of civilian control, would have precipitated nuclear war. pulling just one example from the air, why do you think general mcarthur was canned?
Sure. Then you have great civilian minds like f.ex. Kissinger, who, if he would have been given control of the system, would have probably launched every possible missile in the US arsenal in two weeks time if given the chance, nuclear or not.
What was your point? Mine was to comment on the quality of armchair generals on the internet. And to sigh a relief that they do not have the means to, for example, make the US send ground troops and enter the war.
touche. my point was that the fact of having a professional general in charge really doesn't mean you won't get the outcome which you, and me as well, wish to avoid.
Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 11:33 am Post subject: Re: Russia Georgia Ossetia Alkhazia Ukraine War
Quote:
Russia sent more tanks, troops and rocket launchers in the breakaway Georgian region of South Ossetia this morning amid fears that it is planning a new front against Georgia in the west.
Thousands of Russian troops, dozens of T72 tanks and Hurricane multiple rocket launchers were seen streaming south along the winding mountain roads from Russia, a reporter for the news agency Reuters said.
Quote:
Georgia claims to be observing a ceasefire, but today it was rapidly moving battle-hardened troops up to the frontline near South Ossetia.
The first of the Georgian forces withdrawn from Iraq over the weekend have already arrived in Gori, 15 miles from the South Ossetian border, The Times can confirm, and appear to be in no mood for peace.
"We will drink Russian blood," said Badri, one of the contingent newly arrived from Iraq.
times online
looks like we got them in country somehow. i suspect those guys will be packing a real nasty surprise for the russian armor, courtesy of the US taxpayer.
Joined: May 20, 2008 Posts: 993 Location: I have a whole ward
Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 11:39 am Post subject: Re: Russia Georgia Ossetia Alkhazia Ukraine War
"This, then, is another face of Energo-fascism in Russia: the use of its energy as an instrument of political influence and coercion over weak have-not states on its borders. "It is not that energy is the new atomic weapon," Cliff Kupchan of the Eurasia Group consultancy told the Financial Times, "but Russia knows that petro-power, aggressively and cleverly applied, can yield diplomatic influence."
Joined: Apr 09, 2007 Posts: 6376 Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 11:45 am Post subject: Re: Russia Georgia Ossetia Alkhazia Ukraine War
AlexdeLarge wrote:
"This, then, is another face of Energo-fascism in Russia: the use of its energy as an instrument of political influence and coercion over weak have-not states on its borders. "It is not that energy is the new atomic weapon," Cliff Kupchan of the Eurasia Group consultancy told the Financial Times, "but Russia knows that petro-power, aggressively and cleverly applied, can yield diplomatic influence."
Joined: Apr 09, 2007 Posts: 6376 Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 11:50 am Post subject: Re: Russia Georgia Ossetia Alkhazia Ukraine War
The WSJ is reporting that the Russians have taken Gori.
It will be interesting to see if the Russians are after only part of Georgia's land, or if their military forces will keep the invasion going until the Georgian government falls or flees and the Russians can install a pro-Russian puppet in Tbilsi.
Last edited by Plantagenet on Mon Aug 11, 2008 11:53 am; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 11:52 am Post subject: Re: Russia-Georgia-Ossetia-Alkhazia-Ukraine War
nobodypanic wrote:
...the logistical preparations necessary to move from a defensive posture to an offensive one that would allow moscow to project power into georgia would be obvious and take some time. they tried to disguise it as an exercise.
now, would you as the georgians choose this moment (when the russian army was conducting an excercise across your border, so to speak) to launch your re-conquest of s. ossetia? or is it more plausible that you would see this and attack out of fear?
(add to this that the black sea's fleet was also in position and that the attack has been coordinated w/forces from abkhazian and i don't think this was any sort of last minute reaction by the russians at all--it was clearly well thought out and very premeditated.)
I think what happened was the Russians obtained good intel days in advance and warmed up their forces under some superficially plausible cover. The Georgians, although well aware of it, became a victim of their timetable. It was just a strategic miscalculation. _________________ Volatility. When life isn't exciting enough.
Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 11:53 am Post subject: Re: Russia Georgia Ossetia Alkhazia Ukraine War
Gori has apparently just fallen to Russian forces and the U.S state department states they have evacuated 170 U.S. people from Georgia ... wonder how many were military advisors?
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 4338 Location: Graceland
Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 11:55 am Post subject: Re: Russia Georgia Ossetia Alkhazia Ukraine War
"Nothing to see here folks, just a Russian satellite retrieval operation. Pretty routine, really. They've been looking to get this one back since it was lost about 19 years ago." _________________
Joined: May 20, 2008 Posts: 993 Location: I have a whole ward
Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 12:02 pm Post subject: Re: Russia Georgia Ossetia Alkhazia Ukraine War
If you have not already done so......check out google earth for this region. The photos are surprisingly good. You can see the pipe lines, and get a good sense of the theater and the distance from US bases in Iraq.
PS Turkey is being very quite.....don't you think. _________________ Viddy well, little brother. Viddy well.
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