Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 8:42 pm Post subject: Re: Unconventional NGas Resources Boost US Reserves to 118 Y
Yep. And with the Pickens' plan, if even half of current gasoline consumption was replaced with compressed natural gas, we'd be more than doubling the consumption rate (10 Mbbl/day ~ 60 billion cubic feet, or about our current consumption). Totally replacing natural gas electric generation with wind would only free up about 12% of the energy equivalent (16 bcf/day) of just our 20 Mbbl/day gasoline habit.
Also, with what we define as a "healthy" economy, transportation fuel consumption has tended to grow grown at a 4-5% clip. Even at 2%, that cuts your 59 years to 40. But, perhaps conservation and population stability makes that demand growth zero. Also, assuming a desperate China doesn't muscle into Canadian gas production.
Even then, gas also "peaks" before it runs out.
Still, most on this board will be dead in 50 years, so, hey, one more bong hit off the fossils. Whee. _________________ At 1% annual growth, human bodies will incorporate every gram in the observable universe in approximately 10,170 years.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2765 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 8:55 pm Post subject: Re: Unconventional NGas Resources Boost US Reserves to 118 Y
I think this discussion about the use of cng vehicles is relevant too:
Natural Gas Autos Would Keep Wealth In US Economy
Quote:
The notion of spending taxpayers' money to help fill U.S. roads with natural gas-fueled vehicles faces a major test when voters in California, the nation's largest auto market, go to the polls in November.
Natural gas providers are spending millions of dollars on advertising to convince Californians to pass a ballot initiative allowing the state government to invest in the now-tiny market for natural gas-fueled cars and trucks. The push comes as gas producers, emboldened by a windfall of domestic production, press federal lawmakers to help expand the market for gas as a means for reducing dependence on foreign oil and cutting greenhouse-gas emissions.
If the California ballot initiative passes, up to a million vehicles fueled by compressed natural gas, or CNG, could ultimately end up on the state's roads. If the proposal - called Proposition 10 - fails, backers will face a tougher task selling authorities on the wisdom of investing in infrastructure for natural gas-fueled vehicles, compared with spending on biofuels or electric cars and trucks.
"Natural gas is on the menu of possible fuels for the future," said Jim Boyd, a member of the California Energy Commission. "Its carbon footprint isn't as good as totally non-carbon fuels. But as we transition to alternative fuels, there could be a pathway to a future that includes natural gas for while."
So far no opposition has been organized against the proposal, which would authorize the state to sell $5 billion in bonds to fund rebates of $2,000 to $ 50,000 each to people who purchase natural gas-powered cars and trucks. Some of the money would be earmarked for research, development and production of renewable energy technology, and education. The plan would cost the state $9.8 billion over 30 years.
CNN _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2765 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 9:02 pm Post subject: Re: Unconventional NGas Resources Boost US Reserves to 118 Y
And this:
T. Boone Pickens and Perseus Investing $160M in Natural Gas Vehicle
Quote:
The green-tinged former oil baron T. Boone Pickens is such a fan of his plan to have natural gas power a third of U.S. vehicles, he’s joining with a fund to build and launch a new natural gas vehicle for U.S. roads. Pickens and the natural gas distribution company he founded, Clean Energy Fuels, say this morning they have joined with the investment group Perseus to support the creation of a natural gas vehicle to the tune of $160 million. Clean Energy Fuels and Pickens will each commit $10 million, and Perseus is leading the investment; the Vehicle Production Group (VPG) will build the vehicle.
earth2tech _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 10:29 pm Post subject: Re: Natural Gas: 50% greater reserves than once thought?
ROCKMAN wrote:
Duende,
Unfortunately you couldn't fill up at home. The compression requirements are much to expensive for a D-I-Y operation. If there are eventually enough commercial operations, as Seahorse suggests, then they might open up to the public. Otherwise I think it would take quit a while to see enough CNG stations out there for the general public. In Houston I know of only one and I'm not sure it's still open.
From my limited perspective this is the key issue. Who compresses the gas, when, and where? Cars need 5,000 psi for decent trip miles. Different game then pipeline delivery at near-atmospheric pressures (for electricity generation in power plants, heat for agriculture, industry, buildings, and kitchens etc.). How will compressed gas be delivered to cars at home, at public gas stations for long distance traveling etc?
Right now compressed natural gas is subsidized by cheap petroleum. for special functions: i.e. municipal clean air campaigns and the limited inside forklift jobs, etc. There's that darn EROEI issue again _________________ ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap
Posted: Tue Aug 12, 2008 1:04 am Post subject: Re: Unconventional NGas Resources Boost US Reserves to 118 Y
lawnchair wrote:
Yep. And with the Pickens' plan, if even half of current gasoline consumption was replaced with compressed natural gas, we'd be more than doubling the consumption rate (10 Mbbl/dahttp://www.peakoil.com/modules/Forums/bbcode_box/images/quote.gif
Quotey ~ 60 billion cubic feet, or about our current consumption). Totally replacing natural gas electric generation with wind would only free up about 12% of the energy equivalent (16 bcf/day) of just our 20 Mbbl/day gasoline habit.
Harnessing the power of wind to generate electricity will give us the flexibility to shift natural gas away from electricity generation and put it to use as a transportation fuel — reducing our dependence on foreign oil by more than one-third.
What are our imports of foreign petroleum products? 13 mbd if you count the refined products?
So 1/3 of 13mb means we could get about 4.33 million barrels per day equivalent from natural gas if we used it for our cars.
Posted: Tue Aug 12, 2008 1:23 am Post subject: Re: Natural Gas: 50% greater reserves than once thought?
Tyler_JC wrote:
I love America.
Where else would you get an organization called the "American Clean Skies Foundation" that was funded by companies busy polluting the air?
If this report is anything close to accurate, it pushes the date for Peak Gas back significantly.
No one expected shale gas to be such a major source of energy ten years ago but now it's a booming business. It's amazing what kind of resources become available when the pricing conditions change.
That being said, the "clean skies foundation" is overly optimistic just as those calling for a natural gas production crash by 2010 are overly pessimistic. The truth lies somewhere in between.
Check out this graph of Barnett Shale gas production:
Nobody was talking about shale gas when I started on PO back in 2004. Now it's rapidly becoming America's new natural gas play.
This chart of the Barnett Shale only goes to 2005. Anybody know what its production has been the last couple years?
Posted: Tue Aug 12, 2008 6:54 am Post subject: Re: Natural Gas: 50% greater reserves than once thought?
pstarr wrote:
Right now compressed natural gas is subsidized by cheap petroleum. for special functions: i.e. municipal clean air campaigns and the limited inside forklift jobs, etc. There's that darn EROEI issue again
It's the other way around. Cheap(er) natural gas is the primary energy input in oil extraction/refining. If we start using natural gas directly, instead of using it to refine oil, we would likely increase the EROEI of transportation fuels. Granted, compressing the natural gas at home is only ~90% efficient, but that's probably better than the less than 65% efficiency of using it to extract oil and then refine gasoline.
Granted, drivers would have to get used to a "paltry" 170 miles of range in a compact car, roughly 5-6 times the national daily average, but thems the breaks. _________________
Professor Membrane wrote:
Not now son! I'm making...TOAST!
Last edited by yesplease on Tue Aug 12, 2008 6:55 am; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Tue Aug 12, 2008 6:55 am Post subject: Re: Unconventional NGas Resources Boost US Reserves to 118 Y
chuck6877 wrote:
lawnchair wrote:
Yep. And with the Pickens' plan, if even half of current gasoline consumption was replaced with compressed natural gas, we'd be more than doubling the consumption rate (10 Mbbl/dahttp://www.peakoil.com/modules/Forums/bbcode_box/images/quote.gif
Quotey ~ 60 billion cubic feet, or about our current consumption). Totally replacing natural gas electric generation with wind would only free up about 12% of the energy equivalent (16 bcf/day) of just our 20 Mbbl/day gasoline habit.
Harnessing the power of wind to generate electricity will give us the flexibility to shift natural gas away from electricity generation and put it to use as a transportation fuel — reducing our dependence on foreign oil by more than one-third.
What are our imports of foreign petroleum products? 13 mbd if you count the refined products?
So 1/3 of 13mb means we could get about 4.33 million barrels per day equivalent from natural gas if we used it for our cars.
Does this sound about right?
Chuck
US NG production is 19.3 trillion cubic feet/year and this equates to roughly 6 trillion kWh/year of energy. 4.33mbpd is ~1.6bbpy, and at ~1700kWh/bbl, that's ~2.7 trillion kWh/year worth of oil, so based on energy alone it looks possible. In terms of a transition, every gallon of gasoline we extract/refine requires about half a gallon of natural gas equivalent, so the more natural gas we use instead of oil, the more NG we free up for use instead of oil.
Conceivably, we wouldn't have to increase natural gas production or divert it away from heating/industry use besides oil production/refining if we replaced it's role in electricity production and drove smaller more efficient vehicles, for instance going from big pickups/SUVs to vehicle like the Civic GX on average. _________________
Posted: Tue Aug 12, 2008 7:14 am Post subject: Re: Unconventional NGas Resources Boost US Reserves to 118 Y
chuck6877 wrote:
So 1/3 of 13mb means we could get about 4.33 million barrels per day equivalent from natural gas if we used it for our cars.
Does this sound about right?
Close enough for horseshoes and hand grenades. On average, 16 bcf/day of gas is used for electricity generation in the US (out of 60 total consumed). 16 bcf is, energy wise, 2.7 million barrels of oil. We import 13, right? So, closer to a fifth of imports than a third of imports. Within range if EROEI, efficiency improvements, etc, break right. To fully replace oil imports with gas, you'd have to well over double current production. _________________ At 1% annual growth, human bodies will incorporate every gram in the observable universe in approximately 10,170 years.
Posted: Tue Aug 12, 2008 10:24 am Post subject: Re: Natural Gas: 50% greater reserves than once thought?
ROCKMAN said:
Quote:
And we should remain cautious when we here that we have enough NG/oil to last X years or that we'll ultimately produce Y volumes. All such proclamations are meaningless unless the statement also provides the price expectation and consumption rates. The future production volume/rate depends upon the price model. Just making up numbers to ilustrate: 100 trillion cf of NG if it sells for $11/mcf (2008 prices) but 40 trillion cf of NG at $5/mcf. I think an almost impossible number would be the NG consumption rate for the next 100 years. It's almost impossible to predict 10 years out right now.
ROCK, have you ever tried to estimate how your break-even point will rise as the cost of drilling and infrastructure increases from increasing oil and general energy cost. We have seen a seven fold increase in drilling cost in eight years, and steel prices are still rising exponentially.
And yes, projecting out 100 years is so absurd to assume that it negates the entire objective of the article! This doesn’t pass the smell test, and it is probably just a load of corporate propaganda.
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ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap 
