Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 7:32 pm Post subject: First signs of Chinese demand destruction?
Quote:
BEIJING, Aug 11 - China's crude imports unexpectedly fell 7 percent in July to a seven-month low, its steepest monthly drop since January 2005 as refiners balked at soaring crude costs amid lagging domestic fuel prices.
The July decline follows a weak 3 percent rise in June imports at a time of mounting concern that the U.S. economic slow-down is taking a bigger than expected toll on other markets, potentially undercutting oil use in the world's No. 2 consumer and weighing on world prices still partly buoyed by Asian demand.
...some industry officials said unexpectedly weak end-user demand could diminish demand for more crude.
..."Products inventories are rising in many of our regional fuel marketing outlets. Demand may be slower than we earlier thought," said a Sinopec Corp trader.
...NET IMPORTS RISE
Net imports of oil products such as gasoline, diesel and fuel oil, but excluding liquefied petroleum gas, increased by nearly 20 percent in July from June.
The cut in July crude imports coincides with slowing car sales in China, the world's second-largest vehicle market, which rose at less than 7 percent from a year earlier in its slowest growth in two years.
I never did find that whole "China will make up for any short-fall in demand from the West" argument very convincing, but what is going on here? A drop in imported crude, but a massive increase in imports of refined products. Proof that their fuel subsidies aren't working very well, for sure- refiners don't want to buy high and sell low, even with the compensation they receive from the Chinese govt, but is it also evidence that the Chinese are starting to slow down a little? Or is the drop in crude imports cancelled out by increase in refined imports? I guess it's all rather relative when "slowing car sales" means that they have only grown by 7% in the last 12 months...
Joined: Aug 26, 2005 Posts: 447 Location: Windy City No Longer
Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 7:35 pm Post subject: Re: First signs of Chinese demand destruction?
Wouldn't this be related to their big smog reduction campaign for the Olympics? I'd wager that their usage pops back up in September/October. _________________ TANSTAAFL
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 2130 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 7:57 pm Post subject: Re: First signs of Chinese demand destruction?
yeahbut wrote:
Quote:
BEIJING, Aug 11 - China's crude imports unexpectedly fell 7 percent in July to a seven-month low, its steepest monthly drop since January 2005 as refiners balked at soaring crude costs amid lagging domestic fuel prices.
The July decline follows a weak 3 percent rise in June imports at a time of mounting concern that the U.S. economic slow-down is taking a bigger than expected toll on other markets, potentially undercutting oil use in the world's No. 2 consumer and weighing on world prices still partly buoyed by Asian demand.
...some industry officials said unexpectedly weak end-user demand could diminish demand for more crude.
..."Products inventories are rising in many of our regional fuel marketing outlets. Demand may be slower than we earlier thought," said a Sinopec Corp trader.
...NET IMPORTS RISE
Net imports of oil products such as gasoline, diesel and fuel oil, but excluding liquefied petroleum gas, increased by nearly 20 percent in July from June.
The cut in July crude imports coincides with slowing car sales in China, the world's second-largest vehicle market, which rose at less than 7 percent from a year earlier in its slowest growth in two years.
I never did find that whole "China will make up for any short-fall in demand from the West" argument very convincing, but what is going on here? A drop in imported crude, but a massive increase in imports of refined products. Proof that their fuel subsidies aren't working very well, for sure- refiners don't want to buy high and sell low, even with the compensation they receive from the Chinese govt, but is it also evidence that the Chinese are starting to slow down a little? Or is the drop in crude imports cancelled out by increase in refined imports? I guess it's all rather relative when "slowing car sales" means that they have only grown by 7% in the last 12 months...
Are you prepared to make a drastic enough cut in your kiwi lifestyle to the degree that would destroy oil demand and stave off peak oil into the distant future and kuch later than anything forecasted? Would a sufficient enough number of kiwis do likewise? I mean here, sustainable change, not a momentary reaction to prices, followed by likely adjustments such as for example, working harder, holding down more jobs, borrowing, thieving...you know..the usual methods deployed so as no to lose the comforts of cornucopia?
If you honestly believe that this system, copied wholesale as it is being, by renegade communists in Beijing, is negotiable once someone has had a taste of it, go and spend some time with yourself and ask yourself some hard questions. _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 8:45 pm Post subject: Re: First signs of Chinese demand destruction?
benzoil wrote:
Wouldn't this be related to their big smog reduction campaign for the Olympics? I'd wager that their usage pops back up in September/October.
Beijing is one mega-city in a country of mega-cities and heavy industry. Would the anti-smog efforts of one city be enough to account for this? I doubt it.
americandream wrote:
Are you prepared to make a drastic enough cut in your kiwi lifestyle to the degree that would destroy oil demand and stave off peak oil into the distant future and kuch later than anything forecasted? Would a sufficient enough number of kiwis do likewise? I mean here, sustainable change, not a momentary reaction to prices, followed by likely adjustments such as for example, working harder, holding down more jobs, borrowing, thieving...you know..the usual methods deployed so as no to lose the comforts of cornucopia?
If you honestly believe that this system, copied wholesale as it is being, by renegade communists in Beijing, is negotiable once someone has had a taste of it, go and spend some time with yourself and ask yourself some hard questions.
Not quite following you there, me old china(sorry, couldn't help it ). I heartily agree that most New Zealanders, along with most other people in developed and developing nations, will do just about anything to hang on to their current way of life, but I don't see how that relates to my OP. That was speculating that this latest bit of news might indicate China is starting to contribute to demand destruction, or at least slowing it's consumption of oil. I'm hoping that some of the brainy buggers round here might have something to say on that. Take it easy out there in the sticks, mate- did I catch you on a bad day or something? Maybe a little less "time with yourself" is in order
Joined: Nov 24, 2007 Posts: 140 Location: Christchurch, New Zealand
Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 11:23 pm Post subject: Re: First signs of Chinese demand destruction?
yeahbut wrote:
benzoil wrote:
Wouldn't this be related to their big smog reduction campaign for the Olympics? I'd wager that their usage pops back up in September/October.
Beijing is one mega-city in a country of mega-cities and heavy industry. Would the anti-smog efforts of one city be enough to account for this? I doubt it.
Re: the whole smog thing, I saw one number somewhere saying that Baijing makes up 3% of China's total GDP, so I don't think the drop in industrial manufacturing/cars in that 1 city for 1 month would translate into a 7% national drop in oil consumption.
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 2130 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2008 11:46 pm Post subject: Re: First signs of Chinese demand destruction?
yeahbut wrote:
benzoil wrote:
Wouldn't this be related to their big smog reduction campaign for the Olympics? I'd wager that their usage pops back up in September/October.
Beijing is one mega-city in a country of mega-cities and heavy industry. Would the anti-smog efforts of one city be enough to account for this? I doubt it.
americandream wrote:
Are you prepared to make a drastic enough cut in your kiwi lifestyle to the degree that would destroy oil demand and stave off peak oil into the distant future and kuch later than anything forecasted? Would a sufficient enough number of kiwis do likewise? I mean here, sustainable change, not a momentary reaction to prices, followed by likely adjustments such as for example, working harder, holding down more jobs, borrowing, thieving...you know..the usual methods deployed so as no to lose the comforts of cornucopia?
If you honestly believe that this system, copied wholesale as it is being, by renegade communists in Beijing, is negotiable once someone has had a taste of it, go and spend some time with yourself and ask yourself some hard questions.
Not quite following you there, me old china(sorry, couldn't help it ). I heartily agree that most New Zealanders, along with most other people in developed and developing nations, will do just about anything to hang on to their current way of life, but I don't see how that relates to my OP. That was speculating that this latest bit of news might indicate China is starting to contribute to demand destruction, or at least slowing it's consumption of oil. I'm hoping that some of the brainy buggers round here might have something to say on that. Take it easy out there in the sticks, mate- did I catch you on a bad day or something? Maybe a little less "time with yourself" is in order
Demand destruction in the peak oil context contemplates a reduction of a degree sufficient enough to make something of an impression on the peak oil picture, sufficient enough to discredit it's timeline, by a few decades at least.
Why, there are some demand destructees I am sure, who would like demand destruction set back peak oil for ever.
Now how likely is either of that to occur given that demand destruction is a pipedream, the pipedream of the intellectually challenged. Momentary reduction is perhaps more appropriate. Destruction of demand in China is about as likely as the destruction of demand in New Zealand, NOT.
Is that too difficult for a smart boy like you to grasp? _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
Joined: Jul 03, 2005 Posts: 2 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Tue Aug 12, 2008 1:35 am Post subject: Re: First signs of Chinese demand destruction?
From what I've seen on our local news its not demand destruction its an import restriction. One truckie interviewed said that on a bad day he has to wait up to eight hours for gas!! Doesn't sound like choosing to drive less to me.
Posted: Tue Aug 12, 2008 3:03 am Post subject: Re: First signs of Chinese demand destruction?
americandream wrote:
Demand destruction in the peak oil context contemplates a reduction of a degree sufficient enough to make something of an impression on the peak oil picture, sufficient enough to discredit it's timeline, by a few decades at least.
Well then I guess we're talking at cross purposes. I've heard people here refer to temporary demand destruction, of the reactionary, cyclic, high-prices-cause-low-prices, low-prices-cause-high-prices type that we're seeing in such stats as VMT in the US, airline closures etc, and that's what I'm talking about. I have no way of knowing if it's a short-term downturn, or a longer, global recession/depression, but I do find it interesting, particularly in the context of China- hence my OP. Still curious to know what others make of it.
Posted: Tue Aug 12, 2008 8:53 am Post subject: Re: First signs of Chinese demand destruction?
"some industry officials said unexpectedly weak end-user demand could diminish demand for more crude."
What an insight!
The artcile must have been part of a high school theme project,
where the more words you write the better your grade.
Why waste a line on the internet, with such a trivial comment
which could not possibly be the reverse and contained no
meaningful information or newsworthy opinion whatsoever.
Posted: Tue Aug 12, 2008 12:54 pm Post subject: Re: First signs of Chinese demand destruction?
aahala2 wrote:
"some industry officials said unexpectedly weak end-user demand could diminish demand for more crude."
What an insight!
The artcile must have been part of a high school theme project,
where the more words you write the better your grade.
Why waste a line on the internet, with such a trivial comment
which could not possibly be the reverse and contained no
meaningful information or newsworthy opinion whatsoever.
It's worthy of attention because according to many here, including monte(when is his two weeks up, anyway? ), China is such a behemoth now, with such an economic head of steam, that it won't be affected by downturns in the West, indeed will keep growing at such a rate that it will negate any effect of demand destruction from elsewhere. In that light, any indications of dipping demand in China is interesting. Ok?
I must say I was hoping for a little more insightful discussion(or demolition!) of this news item than has happened so far. Anyone out there who actually knows much about China and it's oil and fuel consumption got some insights?
Joined: Mar 07, 2007 Posts: 392 Location: Holland, Belgica Foederata (Republic of the Seven United Netherlands)
Posted: Tue Aug 12, 2008 1:10 pm Post subject: Re: First signs of Chinese demand destruction?
Alll I heared was that China was filling up its stocks as far as it could before the olympics. Those stocks are all full now. That means they can no longer buy more than has been used.
Fuel consumption could be affected by the olympics. Not only has traffic and economic activity been reduced in BeiJing, also shipping towards China has been affected. If I'm not mistaken then the port of QingDao is closed for commercial traffic. Goods that cannot be imported/exported also do not have to be moved over the road.
Posted: Tue Aug 12, 2008 1:35 pm Post subject: Re: First signs of Chinese demand destruction?
yeahbut wrote:
It's worthy of attention because according to many here, including monte(when is his two weeks up, anyway? ), China is such a behemoth now, with such an economic head of steam, that it won't be affected by downturns in the West, indeed will keep growing at such a rate that it will negate any effect of demand destruction from elsewhere. In that light, any indications of dipping demand in China is interesting. Ok?
You dont think that China will be affected by our downturn? Are you kidding me?
We are the number one importer of Chinese goods at $232 billion dollars in 2007. Japan is number three at $102, fourth south Korea at $26 billion.
These are all streams of income to the chinese government and you mean to tell me that when everyone in the western world starts to cut back on spending that they wont be affected? We are on a GLOBAL market, everyone and the dog will be affected by this one. _________________ Tired of high gas prices? Then stop driving to work, duh..... Learn to Work from home
Posted: Tue Aug 12, 2008 1:55 pm Post subject: Re: First signs of Chinese demand destruction?
burtonridr wrote:
yeahbut wrote:
It's worthy of attention because according to many here, including monte(when is his two weeks up, anyway? ), China is such a behemoth now, with such an economic head of steam, that it won't be affected by downturns in the West, indeed will keep growing at such a rate that it will negate any effect of demand destruction from elsewhere. In that light, any indications of dipping demand in China is interesting. Ok?
You dont think that China will be affected by our downturn? Are you kidding me?
We are the number one importer of Chinese goods at $232 billion dollars in 2007. Japan is number three at $102, fourth south Korea at $26 billion.
These are all streams of income to the chinese government and you mean to tell me that when everyone in the western world starts to cut back on spending that they wont be affected? We are on a GLOBAL market, everyone and the dog will be affected by this one.
reread what he wrote. you're essentially agreeing w/him. it isn't his position that china won't be unaffected; he simply elucidated what he attributes to certain other posters.
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). I heartily agree that most New Zealanders, along with most other people in developed and developing nations, will do just about anything to hang on to their current way of life, but I don't see how that relates to my OP. That was speculating that this latest bit of news might indicate China is starting to contribute to demand destruction, or at least slowing it's consumption of oil. I'm hoping that some of the brainy buggers round here might have something to say on that. Take it easy out there in the sticks, mate- did I catch you on a bad day or something? Maybe a little less "time with yourself" is in order 
), China is such a behemoth now, with such an economic head of steam, that it won't be affected by downturns in the West, indeed will keep growing at such a rate that it will negate any effect of demand destruction from elsewhere. In that light, any indications of dipping demand in China is interesting. Ok?
Then stop driving to work, duh..... 
