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Peakoil.com :: View topic - USDA forecast: record corn yield in the U.S.
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USDA forecast: record corn yield in the U.S.
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lorenzo
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 10:35 am    Post subject: USDA forecast: record corn yield in the U.S. Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

The USDA's crop forecast is out:

Quote:
Soybean Production Up 15 Percent from Last Year

Corn Production Down 6 Percent from 2007, but second highest production ever

Cotton Production Down 28 Percent from 2007

All Wheat Production Virtually Unchanged from July Forecast



And:

Quote:
Corn production is forecast at 12.3 billion bushels, down 6 percent from last year but 17 percent above 2006. Based on
conditions as of August 1, yields are expected to average 155.0 bushels per acre, up 3.9 bushels from last year. If
realized, this yield would be the second highest on record, behind 2004. Production would be the second highest on
record, behind last year when producers harvested the most acres of corn for grain since 1933.


http://www.usda.gov/nass/PUBS/TODAYRPT/crop0808.pdf


Doom and gloomers are wrong, once again. But this has become a routine by now. Cool
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Tyler_JC
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 10:48 am    Post subject: Re: USDA forecast: record corn yield in the U.S. Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

So we're going to increase production over 2006 levels by 17% despite the massive flooding in a major corn growing region in June?

Impressive.

Never bet against the American farmer. They don't call us the Saudi Arabia of Corn for nothing.
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rdsaltpower
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 10:55 am    Post subject: Re: USDA forecast: record corn yield in the U.S. Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

lol! the doomers seem doomed!
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pstarr
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 11:00 am    Post subject: Re: USDA forecast: record corn yield in the U.S. Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

If you haven't guessed this is justification for turning all that marginal land and those darn conservation easements (taken from wildlife and habitat) into BIOFOOLS!!!!.

Yippee drag out the Hummer! We're goin' muddin' 5bullwhip
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 11:09 am    Post subject: Re: USDA forecast: record corn yield in the U.S. Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

It will be interesting to see what the yield per acre is.
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 11:20 am    Post subject: Re: USDA forecast: record corn yield in the U.S. Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Um...

Quote:

Corn Production Down 6 Percent from 2007


How can it be down by 6% but be a record yield? Last time I looked, the pertinent definition of "record" was "An unsurpassed measurement: a world record in weightlifting; a record for cold weather.", not something that is down 6% from last year.

Next we'll hear "Oil production set a record this year at 60mb/d, down only 7% from last year!"
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joeltrout
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 11:44 am    Post subject: Re: USDA forecast: record corn yield in the U.S. Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

joewp wrote:
Um...

Quote:

Corn Production Down 6 Percent from 2007


How can it be down by 6% but be a record yield? Last time I looked, the pertinent definition of "record" was "An unsurpassed measurement: a world record in weightlifting; a record for cold weather.", not something that is down 6% from last year.

Next we'll hear "Oil production set a record this year at 60mb/d, down only 7% from last year!"


Haha I am glad I wasn't the only one trying to figure that one out.

joeltrout
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smallpoxgirl
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 11:55 am    Post subject: Re: USDA forecast: record corn yield in the U.S. Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

joewp wrote:
How can it be down by 6% but be a record yield?


Maybe he's talking about the 2007 harvest? Rolling Eyes
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Cashmere
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 12:02 pm    Post subject: Re: USDA forecast: record corn yield in the U.S. Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

You figure with the Olympics g8oing and all that the OP would have a handle on how to determine whether a "record" h as been established.
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FoxV
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 12:02 pm    Post subject: Re: USDA forecast: record corn yield in the U.S. Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

Yields are up but production is down. Sounds like less acres are growing but the ones that are are doing very well.

I'm suspecting that soy bean production increase is also a factor. Soy bean and corn production are only profitable if you rotate between the two from year to year. So a lot of fields that were corn last year have been switched out for soybean.

Yield is only relevant to an individual farm's profitability. At the end of the day, production is still down and the doomers are no more or less doomed than anybody else.

can anybody put this into perspective to demand growth from last year.
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frankthetank
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 1:05 pm    Post subject: Re: USDA forecast: record corn yield in the U.S. Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I'll wait until the combines are in the field before commenting.
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Twilight
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 1:09 pm    Post subject: Re: USDA forecast: record corn yield in the U.S. Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

OK, so then we turn that corn into ethanol and burn it in our cars, right?
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strider3700
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 2:15 pm    Post subject: Re: USDA forecast: record corn yield in the U.S. Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

frankthetank wrote:
I'll wait until the combines are in the field before commenting.


You should also wait until the measurements of what the actual harvest was have been through their revisions. It seems like the new standard way of doing things is to estimate way to high and revise lower a few months later.
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markcl
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 5:16 pm    Post subject: Re: USDA forecast: record corn yield in the U.S. Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

remember these numbers will not be proven entill Jan 2009, after J6pack has been suckered
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cube
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 7:09 pm    Post subject: Re: USDA forecast: record corn yield in the U.S. Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

joeltrout wrote:
joewp wrote:
Um...

Quote:

Corn Production Down 6 Percent from 2007


How can it be down by 6% but be a record yield? Last time I looked, the pertinent definition of "record" was "An unsurpassed measurement: a world record in weightlifting; a record for cold weather.", not something that is down 6% from last year.

Next we'll hear "Oil production set a record this year at 60mb/d, down only 7% from last year!"


Haha I am glad I wasn't the only one trying to figure that one out.

joeltrout
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OMG can it really be true?
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