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Peakoil.com :: View topic - Russia Georgia Ossetia Alkhazia Ukraine War
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Russia Georgia Ossetia Alkhazia Ukraine War
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Nickel
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 1:56 pm    Post subject: Re: Russia Georgia Ossetia Alkhazia Ukraine War Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

nobodypanic wrote:
i don't think US warships are going to stop and allow themselves to be boarded and searched.


What would we have thought of Russian ships doing the same heading for Cuba in 1962? What would our reaction have been?

Framed with the shoe on the other foot, does this sound to you like a prudent course of action?
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Nickel
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 1:59 pm    Post subject: Re: Russia Georgia Ossetia Alkhazia Ukraine War Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

UncoveringTruths wrote:
Russia May Focus on Pro-U.S. Ukraine After Georgia


There's no question it's not in Russia's interests to see Ukraine accede to NATO. What it comes down to is this: is it more important to us that they DO, or more important to Russia that they do NOT? Because how that balances on the scale is what will ultimately decide it.
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Cog
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 2:02 pm    Post subject: Re: Russia Georgia Ossetia Alkhazia Ukraine War Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Up to this point, the Russians can claim their actions were to secure the South Ossetia region. But to shoot-down US military humanitarian planes, would be a considerable escalation. THE ROE for any US military will be defensive only. We aren't going to shoot our way in to deliver supplies. But if we are fired on, expect a whole different escalation led by the USA.

We do have the right to deliver anything we want wish to Georgia, including military equipment. They are, after all, a sovereign nation with the right to self-defense.

Its my belief the Russians will not interfere with the delivery of humanitarian supplies. What is going to be difficult, IMO, is convincing the Russians to return to their pre-war borders . Their occupation of the major east-west road corridors gives them virtual control over the country.
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tsakach
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 2:03 pm    Post subject: Re: Russia Georgia Ossetia Alkhazia Ukraine War Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

The Russians sent in a Cossack peacekeeping force, eh? Kinda like hiring the Hells Angels for security at a rock concert.

Russia can no longer pretend to be a peacekeeping force in Georgia.
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nobodypanic
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 2:05 pm    Post subject: Re: Russia Georgia Ossetia Alkhazia Ukraine War Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Nickel wrote:
nobodypanic wrote:
i don't think US warships are going to stop and allow themselves to be boarded and searched.
What would we have thought of Russian ships doing the same heading for Cuba in 1962? What would our reaction have been? Framed with the shoe on the other foot, does this sound to you like a prudent course of action?

there is a minor distinction: we hadn't invaded cuba and the soviets weren't claiming to be shipping humanitarian aide; however, i think overall your point is sound.

in any case, you know what we thought and what our reaction was. that's why i think that these developments are very serious and don't think it'll just blow over by next week (although i sure hope it does!).

without allowing the russians an out that saves face, no, i don't think this is a wise course. but then again, the russians haven't exactly been very prudent themselves.
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EnergyUnlimited
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 2:07 pm    Post subject: Re: Russia Georgia Ossetia Alkhazia Ukraine War Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

UncoveringTruths wrote:
Poland, US ready for more missile defense talks This should make the Ruskies assuaged.

I live in Poland and it is my impression, that our president and (to lower extend) prime minister is frightened that after Georgia there will be Ukraine, later Lithuania, later Poland.

Our state propaganda on all TV channels is claiming that Georgia is a victim of unprovoked attack by Russians.

I think, our agreement for US missile defense system (ABM) is now a foregone conclusion.
I can expect final documents to be signed within several days.
Poland will also get Patriot-3 systems as a part of deal with US to piss off Russians even more.

So it will be only up to decision of coming US administration to build ABM systems in Poland or not.

In general we may expect a cold winter at the beginning, but I really don't know what will be later. After all WW III have to begin somewhere, so why not in Poland?

Personally I believe for total atomic war to proceed before American ABM installations are ready. Because once they are ready, Russians could be destroyed for free and they will never allow for such situation to unfold.

It is also boldly obvious by now that ABM systems are against Russians. Before it was also obvious for me at least, but now it is public knowledge.
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UncoveringTruths
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 2:08 pm    Post subject: Re: Russia Georgia Ossetia Alkhazia Ukraine War Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Nickel wrote:
UncoveringTruths wrote:
Russia May Focus on Pro-U.S. Ukraine After Georgia
There's no question it's not in Russia's interests to see Ukraine accede to NATO. What it comes down to is this: is it more important to us that they DO, or more important to Russia that they do NOT? Because how that balances on the scale is what will ultimately decide it.

At some point a line will be drawn as the Western powers cannot allow the complete evaporation of democracies emergence in eastern Europe over the last twenty years to be undone in short order.

The Russian PM is now demanding that we choose them or Georgia.
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Nickel
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 2:28 pm    Post subject: Re: Russia Georgia Ossetia Alkhazia Ukraine War Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Cog wrote:
But to shoot-down US military humanitarian planes, would be a considerable escalation.

And what, pray tell, would the USAF do if "humanitarian" planes from Iran were making a beeline for Iraq?
nobodypanic wrote:
tthe soviets weren't claiming to be shipping humanitarian aide

They were, actually; on several ships. Cuba was one of the proxy states at the time and they supported it in any number of manners.
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
Poland will also get Patriot-3 systems as a part of deal with US to piss off Russians even more.

The problem with that is, it cuts both ways. The Russians have been pretty circumspect in the arms they've been willing to sell, say, Iran. If the gloves are off, the gloves are off, and the sensibilities of the US and Israel on such matters won't amount to much... not when, clearly, Russian sensibilities are nothing to us but a laughing stock, and even an initiation to torture them.
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nobodypanic
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 2:32 pm    Post subject: Re: Russia Georgia Ossetia Alkhazia Ukraine War Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Nickel wrote:
nobodypanic wrote:
tthe soviets weren't claiming to be shipping humanitarian aide


They were, actually; on several ships. Cuba was one of the proxy states at the time and they supported it in any number of manners.

well then the parallels seem to be even stronger.
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EnergyUnlimited
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 2:39 pm    Post subject: Re: Russia Georgia Ossetia Alkhazia Ukraine War Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Nickel wrote:
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
Poland will also get Patriot-3 systems as a part of deal with US to piss off Russians even more.


The problem with that is, it cuts both ways. The Russians have been pretty circumspect in the arms they've been willing to sell, say, Iran. If the gloves are off, the gloves are off, and the sensibilities of the US and Israel on such matters won't amount to much... not when, clearly, Russian sensibilities are nothing to us but a laughing stock, and even an initiation to torture them.

Of course, we are going to see substantial escalation of tension worldwide within next months.

There is a good chance that all of that will result in global atomic war.

I think there are various papers published by leading pherologists, which are suggesting that sustainable number of humans on the Earth is in range of 2 billions.
I think, we are going to choose the most obvious method, how to get rid of excess.
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ir290762
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 2:42 pm    Post subject: Re: Russia Georgia Ossetia Alkhazia Ukraine War Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I see kind of an attitude change here compared to the days before.
Nickel, whereabouts in Canada? Just nostalgic...
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Cog
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 2:43 pm    Post subject: Re: Russia Georgia Ossetia Alkhazia Ukraine War Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Nickel wrote:
Cog wrote:
But to shoot-down US military humanitarian planes, would be a considerable escalation.


And what, pray tell, would the USAF do if "humanitarian" planes from Iran were making a beeline for Iraq?


The Iranians aren't exactly known for their humanitarian missions. The USA is.


Last edited by Cog on Wed Aug 13, 2008 2:50 pm; edited 1 time in total
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AlexdeLarge
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 2:48 pm    Post subject: Re: Russia Georgia Ossetia Alkhazia Ukraine War Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

ir290762 wrote:
I see kind of an attitude change here compared to the days before.
Nickel, whereabouts in Canada? Just nostalgic...


Nickel has never met a real communist. Sounds like a match made in heaven!! Send him a 8X10 glossy of Lenin and he is yours for life!

Long live the Proletariat! LOL
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ir290762
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 2:54 pm    Post subject: Re: Russia Georgia Ossetia Alkhazia Ukraine War Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I got an idea. If, obviously, Russia is Mordor ( what else?), then Saakashvili is Frodo on his quest to save the world from Evil Aeterna. The Baltic Presidential Squad is then the Frodo's Dream Team. The US is obviously Gandalf, and the Baltic Presidential Squad plus Yuschenko MacUkraine are Frodo's team.

Frodo is alive!
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ir290762
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 2:58 pm    Post subject: Re: Russia Georgia Ossetia Alkhazia Ukraine War Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

“There’s a passage I got memorized {recites ’Ezekiel 25:17’]. I been sayin’ that crap for years. And if you ever heard it, it meant your ass. I never really questioned what it meant. I thought it was just a cold-blooded thing to say to a motherf**er ‘fore you popped a cap in his ass. But I saw some crap this mornin’ made me think twice. Now I’m thinkin’, it could mean you’re the evil man. And I’m the righteous man. And Mr. .45 here he’s the shepherd protecting my righteous ass in the valley of darkness. Or it could be you’re the righteous man and I’m the shepherd and it’s the world that’s evil and selfish. I’d like that. But that crap ain’t the truth. The truth is you’re weak. And I’m the tyranny of evil men. But I’m tryin’. I’m tryin’ real hard to be a shepherd". (Tarantino, 1994, p. 186-87)

Great passage to apply to the current situation.
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