Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Tue Jun 03, 2008 2:32 pm Post subject: Re: Coal - What are the ramifications?
It is great that we have coal reserves, but switching to MORE coal is only going to put that many more greenhouse gasses in the air. We need to focus more on sustainable and renewable resources for energy. I don't expect to be around long enough for the next batch of oil and coal to be ready...
Working jobs we hate to buy things we don't need...
Posted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 9:00 pm Post subject: Re: Coal - What are the ramifications?
Coal to gas is next. South Africa uses this and its all they have had for years. Hitler did it. So can we. There is a new plant up in the coal fields even now going online.
Posted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 9:54 pm Post subject: Re: Coal - What are the ramifications?
Climate change is a done deal, we'll suck it up and burn the coal.
But building the infrastructure for CTL takes decades. If we're smart we'll make sure that we can do any syngas inputs on the fischer-tropsh reactors so eventually we can just shove in nuclear generated hydrogen. If we're real smart we'll build them next to cement plants so we also have a source of CO2 when the coal starts to run low.
I dont expect CTL to be a major player for the next ten years simply because it'll take at least that long for the infrastructure to be developed.
Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 8:23 am Post subject: Re: Coal - What are the ramifications?
Energy policy is like income. You need a whole pie to make it work but sometimes you get your pie in multiple pieces. Maybe some solar, some wind, some coal, hydrogen etc. Everyone on here wants an instant solution but I think its going to be a hodge podge of answers.
Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 9:25 am Post subject: Re: Coal - What are the ramifications?
Listen I don't know where some of you folks get your numbers but lets try to cite because some of you must be making this crap up...
1. Reserves!
~ The US has over 275billion tons of recoverable coal and consumes about 950million tons as of 2001. These numbers are published by the EIA. These are solid numbers as of 2001 I'll try to find more recent and post them...
The EIA assumes coal consumption growth at 1.5% per year for the next 20 years... of course this assumes current uses not new uses.
... The importance of impact of increased coal is closed minded. First off global warming a natural phenomena... please don't jump on me read on... I believe that it is the responsibility of humans to be responsible with the environment and not abuse it but high carbon levels have occurred in the past... oil and coal only sequestered CO2 out of the atmosphere through solar energy... I think we can learn from that! The earth warms and we can;t stop it. If we had never added any CO2 the earth would still be warming right now... its a cycle and it happens but for our part... we can sequester the CO2 we are releasing back into energy and create a closed loop... one good way is through algal farms tied to coal power plants. The algal farms if designed properly can sequester 90% of the CO2 from flue gases according to some trials... this technology is on the edge and is being tested seriously. This is a method of creating diesel from coal electric production that makes it much greener! The algae is almost 90% carbon by weight depending on the species...
BTW coal is not the only reserve the US has. Estimates show that the US has 1.5 trillion of a global 2.8 trillion barrels of oil in oil shale! This stuff is more costly to get than middle easter oil but with proper infrastructure there are many useful by products that are derived from the shale!
My numbers show us at 21 million barrels a day which means at current use... which assumes efficiency technology keeping pace with growth in energy and population... which might be a stretch... still at current use thats 200 year supply... give or take a decade. BTW most of these un-cited numbers are from the World Energy Council if you want to check them. Some are not but most are.
Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 10:10 am Post subject: Re: Coal - What are the ramifications?
elear2787 wrote:
Listen I don't know where some of you folks get your numbers but lets try to cite because some of you must be making this crap up...
1. Reserves!
~ The US has over 275billion tons of recoverable coal and consumes about 950million tons as of 2001. These numbers are published by the EIA. These are solid numbers as of 2001 I'll try to find more recent and post them...
From my initial post:
The US has about 250 {275} billion tons of recoverable coal reserves. According to the EIA figures, we can see that we have 255 years of coal remaining in the year 2000 given our current rate of consumption. That prediction assumes equal use of all grades of coal, from anthracite to lignite. Population growth alone reduces the calculated lifetime to some 90-120 years. However, if we look back in history, we see that there were 300 years of coal reserves in 1988, 1000 years reserves in 1904, and 10,000 years reserves in 1868! As each year goes by, our coal consumption increases and we see that the projection becomes meaningless. And if we suddenly move to a bigger reliance on coal, and coal liquidfaction for gas, then this estimate would surely drop dramatically.
Coal peak projections:
Hubbert Model Peak 2032
EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2004 Peak 2060
Flat gas consumption and greater coal consumption Peak 2053
Flat gas consumption and synfuels from coal to replace oil Peak 2035
The EIA assumes coal consumption growth at 1.5% per year for the next 20 years... of course this assumes current uses not new uses.
Yes, so we don't have long before coal peaks. And while coal production is increasing in the US, the amount of energy in btu's from each ton is declining, so in essence, we have peaked in coal energy production already.
Quote:
BTW coal is not the only reserve the US has. Estimates show that the US has 1.5 trillion of a global 2.8 trillion barrels of oil in oil shale! This stuff is more costly to get than middle easter oil but with proper infrastructure there are many useful by products that are derived from the shale!
Yes, but the amount of production of oil from shale is peanuts and always will be.
Quote:
My numbers show us at 21 million barrels a day which means at current use... which assumes efficiency technology keeping pace with growth in energy and population... which might be a stretch... still at current use thats 200 year supply... give or take a decade.
You assume we can produce 21 mbpd from oil shale?
Even at the height of US oil production when the oil came up on it's own, we only produced 9.6 mbpd.
Near term, we might produce a couple of million/day from shale. Not enough to even offset growth in demand, much less the terminal decline of US oil.
And it will be costly. Very costly. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 10:18 am Post subject: Re: THREE TIMES COAL USE
joelcolorado wrote:
Look at the advances in the last 100 years. Horseback to the moon. Good grief. We have the fuel in tar sands, oil shale and coal, wind and solar. We LACK the DESIRE only to make this happen.
Yes, all on the back of cheap, readily available fossil fuels.
Yes, we have the fuel in tar sands, oil shale, wind and solar...trouble is...it takes fossil fuels to get at them in any significant way.
We lack the EROEI and the cheap energy to make this happen now.
That was a goal to be obtained 30 years ago.
Google Jimmy Carters energy speech of April 18, 1977. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 11:11 am Post subject: Re: THREE TIMES COAL USE
MonteQuest wrote:
Yes, all on the back of cheap, readily available fossil fuels.
Yes, we have the fuel in tar sands, oil shale, wind and solar...trouble is...it takes fossil fuels to get at them in any significant way.
We lack the EROEI and the cheap energy to make this happen now.
That was a goal to be obtained 30 years ago.
Google Jimmy Carters energy speech of April 18, 1977.
Oil was as useless prior to internal combustion engines as all of these other sources are today... guess what things change!! It is stupid and ignorant to assume that technology when necessity arises can not make use of these fuels efficiently. The thing is the cheap fuels have prevented us from the need to find new sources.. if it ain't broke don't fix it... why spend the money to build new infrastructure for fuels that will cost a little more? We won't now that they are more expensive we might... when they are gone we will have or we will!!! This is human nature and it has never failed yet! When the need arises we buckle down... we work better under pressure and when the rewards are great not when it isn't a big deal... The reason there has been no new energy sources in the past century is not because they don't exist but because there are not incentives for it!! We have at least 12 sources of unexploited energy domestically in the US... why aren't they commercial? Either the technology is old and not been improved or made efficient... the infrastructure has not been built... or it simply is more expensive than the long run trends of fossil fuels.. this does not signal the end of the world. It means we are smart... we don't not make computers because we don't have software yet... its the same principle you can't assume that something won't happen because it hasn't... technology takes time and money neither of which has been put into energy in a very long time. Oil was once worthless and it will be again!! We will move past oil just like we moved past cork... read up on the history of cork and WWI movement to be "Cork Independent" cork was once a matter of national security... then we lost access to it and what happened?? We got a half dozen better items to replace it... do a study on that... that is how we work... we wait till its gone then we make something better to replace it we have always been that way!
Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 1:09 pm Post subject: Re: THREE TIMES COAL USE
MonteQuest wrote:
joelcolorado wrote:
Look at the advances in the last 100 years. Horseback to the moon. Good grief. We have the fuel in tar sands, oil shale and coal, wind and solar. We LACK the DESIRE only to make this happen.
Yes, all on the back of cheap, readily available fossil fuels.
Yes, we have the fuel in tar sands, oil shale, wind and solar...trouble is...it takes fossil fuels to get at them in any significant way.
We lack the EROEI and the cheap energy to make this happen now.
Damned robot. Nothing really can compete with fossil fuels, oh no. Its not like we've discovered some brand new technomagical energy source in the world war decades ago.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3920 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Tue Nov 11, 2008 8:51 pm Post subject: Re: Coal - What are the ramifications?
JustaGirl wrote:
Is anyone still reading this thread?
Anyway, what are the actual reserves of coal in the US? I've read estimates of 18 years all the way to 200. That's a pretty wide discrepancy.
It all depends on what assumptions you make. For any mineral from Uranium to Marble or Petroleum to Coal a reserve is sized based on price because the higher the price the more likely it is you can make a profit on a lower quality source.
For example, if you have to remove 10 tons of rock to mine 1 ton of coal it is expensive, if you have to mine 25 tons per ton recovered it is 2.5 times as expensive. On the other hand if the price of coal goes up 2.5 times as high and you have extraction equipment already working a seam that requires 10 to 1 your profit for mining that particualr seem goes up, and you also have the option of mining other ores nearby which were not profitible at the lower price but which are then money makers under the new higher price.
There are many billions of tons of coal on Earth and the higher the price the more of them we will work to dig up. If the Government really wanted to wipe out the coal industry one method would be to set a price very low for coal by law. Once all the coal which can be mined at the low price is extracted nobody would be willing to mine the rest because they would lose money if they did so. _________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3920 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Wed Nov 12, 2008 9:40 pm Post subject: Re: Coal - What are the ramifications?
JustaGirl wrote:
So is the answer... who knows & it all just depends?
You got it
One of my favorite quarry's is the Barre granite quarry in Vermont. Their source rock goes down literally kilometers into the crust, but the odds are they will never get more than about 300 meters down, because the cost of extraction will exceed the value of the rock about that far down. It is very nice looking stone, this stuff has been used for statues and monumental structures all over the USA, not to mention a rather large number of high price tombstones. _________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
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