Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Thu Aug 14, 2008 12:54 pm Post subject: Re: European Economy Contracting
It did not surprise me too much. The US can game the stats at home, but it cannot game them abroad. And we have been having a credit spending boom of our own. That is going to come to an end sometime. _________________ Volatility. When life isn't exciting enough.
Joined: Mar 26, 2005 Posts: 3904 Location: over here
Posted: Thu Aug 14, 2008 1:00 pm Post subject: Re: European Economy Contracting
Twilight wrote:
It did not surprise me too much. The US can game the stats at home, but it cannot game them abroad. And we have been having a credit spending boom of our own. That is going to come to an end sometime.
Well, unless I've missed something, until now there weren't any big predictions of Europe going into recession and all of a sudden it's all but a certainty. But I guess you're right and I was fooled by the rigged numbers coming from across the atlantic, thinking that Europe would only sink after the US did, which it didn't.....officially. _________________ "The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
Posted: Thu Aug 14, 2008 1:12 pm Post subject: Re: European Economy Contracting
Recession has been the word on everyone's lips in the UK since spring. At least, those who utter it. The media has been known to refer to it as "the r-word" in that irritating mock coy style of theirs. But there has been a debate in the UK for a few months about whether we are sliding into a recession. It has a "when not if" quality to it. Interestingly we are still showing positive growth, but with so many warnings pouring out, I had little confidence the situation in mainland Europe was any better. Indeed it is not. Especially as the strong Euro was supposed to have been nailing the manufacturers all year - looks like it has been. You are right though, I do not remember seeing a whole Eurozone recession forecast, but when I saw the headline it was not unexpected. _________________ Volatility. When life isn't exciting enough.
Joined: Aug 11, 2005 Posts: 826 Location: Eastern NC
Posted: Thu Aug 14, 2008 1:24 pm Post subject: Re: European Economy Contracting
Doesn't surprise me a bit. Thought the US is having major problems, the economy and work force is much more flexible than Europe. Companies like the Italian airline have little to no ability to adapt to a changing situation. US airlines though in deep trouble are far more flexible in their response to increased fuel changes. This runs across the economic board.
Joined: Mar 26, 2005 Posts: 3904 Location: over here
Posted: Thu Aug 14, 2008 1:52 pm Post subject: Re: European Economy Contracting
Fishman wrote:
Doesn't surprise me a bit. Thought the US is having major problems, the economy and work force is much more flexible than Europe.
Or so goes the cliche. And ofcourse it has some truth to it (but less so than in the 80's), but not necesarily in this stage of the economic cycle. I think this is more a result of expensive European products and relatively expensive credit. Either way, I think it would be better for Europe to inflate it's way out of the problem (but the ECB doesn't have that mandate) like the US instead of going into recession(=restructuring the economy) or maybe not. Come to think of it, recession might actually be better thinking about what might be lying ahead in the coming decades which will be all about making painful changes. _________________ "The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
Posted: Thu Aug 14, 2008 2:45 pm Post subject: Re: European Economy Contracting
The weakness of the dollar must surely have had a big impact on German exports as US machine tools and other manufactured goods would have become significantly cheaper in a short space of time.
Posted: Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:01 pm Post subject: Re: European Economy Contracting
Fishman wrote:
Doesn't surprise me a bit. Thought the US is having major problems, the economy and work force is much more flexible than Europe.
The US also has Hegemony on its side which allows it to spew bogus statistics on the world and they lap it up like starving dogs (sorry for the imagery, I'm feeling a bit hostile today)
According to Shadowstats, the US has been in a recession pretty much since the Dot com bust.
What this does mean is rate cuts all around. Ben is running out of "legitimate" bullets to pump money into the system. It needs the UK and Euroland to drop rates to give it cover for another cut.
Fed rate is going to at least 1% if not 0% after all is said and done. Just like after the dot com collapse, rates dropped to 1.75% and then dropped 0.25% every 6 months. The reason Greenspan didn't go straight to 1% is that they need the European's to dump their rates to prevent a dollar collapse
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