Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Joined: Apr 12, 2007 Posts: 1198 Location: Central NC
Posted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 7:14 pm Post subject: Re: USDA forecast: record corn yield in the U.S.
lorenzo wrote:
Doom and gloomers are wrong, once again. But this has become a routine by now.
Another example of deathless prose that shall live on in infamy. _________________ "The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…"
Sir Winston Churchill
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1424 Location: Seattle
Posted: Wed Aug 13, 2008 7:41 pm Post subject: Re: USDA forecast: record corn yield in the U.S.
lorenzo wrote:
The USDA's crop forecast is out:
Quote:
Soybean Production Up 15 Percent from Last Year
Corn Production Down 6 Percent from 2007, but second highest production ever
Cotton Production Down 28 Percent from 2007
All Wheat Production Virtually Unchanged from July Forecast
And:
Quote:
Corn production is forecast at 12.3 billion bushels, down 6 percent from last year but 17 percent above 2006. Based on
conditions as of August 1, yields are expected to average 155.0 bushels per acre, up 3.9 bushels from last year. If
realized, this yield would be the second highest on record, behind 2004. Production would be the second highest on
record, behind last year when producers harvested the most acres of corn for grain since 1933.
Doom and gloomers are wrong, once again. But this has become a routine by now.
Lorenzo, from one cornucopian to another, if you want credibility, you would not title a thread "record corn yield in the U.S." when in fact we're only talking about the second-largest corn yield in the US.
I've also already reported this on wisconsin_cur's thread "food crisis 2" thread, so I'm not sure why the need to repeat it. _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Posted: Thu Aug 14, 2008 4:31 pm Post subject: Re: USDA forecast: record corn yield in the U.S.
joewp wrote:
Um...
How can it be down by 6% but be a record yield? Last time I looked, the pertinent definition of "record" was "An unsurpassed measurement: a world record in weightlifting; a record for cold weather.", not something that is down 6% from last year.
Next we'll hear "Oil production set a record this year at 60mb/d, down only 7% from last year!"
Well, it's rather simple. I'll let you think about it a bit longer. I'm sure that, by the time you make it out of highschool, you'll have found the answer. Good luck. _________________ The Beginning is Near!
Posted: Thu Aug 14, 2008 4:33 pm Post subject: Re: USDA forecast: record corn yield in the U.S.
FoxV wrote:
Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics
Yields are up but production is down. Sounds like less acres are growing but the ones that are are doing very well.
I'm suspecting that soy bean production increase is also a factor. Soy bean and corn production are only profitable if you rotate between the two from year to year. So a lot of fields that were corn last year have been switched out for soybean.
Yield is only relevant to an individual farm's profitability. At the end of the day, production is still down and the doomers are no more or less doomed than anybody else.
can anybody put this into perspective to demand growth from last year.
Well, the second biggest harvest in the history of the United States, right coming after the all-time highest record... I think you get the picture.
The doomers who have been fuming on this forum about the "collapse" of this year's corn, are as dead as a doomer can be. That is: very.
The corn-soy shift has been very positive too this year.
Congrats, American farmers, great work.
PS: this story also demonstrates how farmers adapt to higher prices for inputs. They become more efficient - viz. the ultra-high yield prognosis of 155 b/acre. _________________ The Beginning is Near!
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 7024 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Thu Aug 14, 2008 5:02 pm Post subject: Re: USDA forecast: record corn yield in the U.S.
lorenzo wrote:
[Congrats, American farmers, great work.
I doubt anyone thinks American farmers, like any other businessmen, are unable to see an opportunity to make a profit.
I wonder though how you feel about the consumer subsidies via inflating commodity prices on things like flour/meat/eggs/dairy caused by mandates for, and subsidies of ethanol.
It don't matter what is available if I can't afford it - or is it just every man for themselves? _________________ Make a plan and work it:
Posted: Thu Aug 14, 2008 5:21 pm Post subject: Re: USDA forecast: record corn yield in the U.S.
Pops wrote:
lorenzo wrote:
[Congrats, American farmers, great work.
I doubt anyone thinks American farmers, like any other businessmen, are unable to see an opportunity to make a profit.
I wonder though how you feel about the consumer subsidies via inflating commodity prices on things like flour/meat/eggs/dairy caused by mandates for, and subsidies of ethanol.
It don't matter what is available if I can't afford it - or is it just every man for themselves?
Oh, I'm all in favor of abolishing farm and fuel subsidies, provided markets are opened for imports of better, cheaper, more plentiful sugarcane ethanol. _________________ The Beginning is Near!
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1658 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:28 am Post subject: Re: USDA forecast: record corn yield in the U.S.
lorenzo wrote:
joewp wrote:
Um...
How can it be down by 6% but be a record yield? Last time I looked, the pertinent definition of "record" was "An unsurpassed measurement: a world record in weightlifting; a record for cold weather.", not something that is down 6% from last year.
Next we'll hear "Oil production set a record this year at 60mb/d, down only 7% from last year!"
Well, it's rather simple. I'll let you think about it a bit longer. I'm sure that, by the time you make it out of highschool, you'll have found the answer. Good luck.
Ad hominems don't really help to make your case, Lorenzo.
I've been out of high school for much longer than I care to admit, and in all that time the word "record" has meant pretty much the same thing "more than ever before", or "an unsurpassed amount".
For your benefit, I'll assume English isn't your primary language and write off your error to that. Please don't compound it by insisting that Hank Aaron holds the record for career home runs, even though Barry Bonds surpassed his amount of career home runs, for instance. (Concerns about steroids and HGH notwithstanding, of course)
You change the meanings of words to suit your conucopian fantasies and then insult my intelligence?
Puh-lease... _________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Posted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 7:14 am Post subject: Re: USDA forecast: record corn yield in the U.S.
Joe-wp, it's not an ad hominem - you simply demonstrate to have no insight into what is perhaps the most basic of thoughts in agricultural economics.
So I will explain it to you (I feel a bit embarrased for having to do this):
Yield per acre and the number of acres planted are two different things.
If you plant 100 acres and you reach a yield of 100 bushels per acre, you get a total production of 10,000 bushels.
If, the next year, you plant only 50 acres but you reach a yield of 150 acres, you have obtained much higher yields, but a lower total production, in this case 7500 bushels.
That's why the USDA forecast predicts record yields, but a 6% drop in total output.
It's not really that difficult, is it? _________________ The Beginning is Near!
Posted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 7:18 am Post subject: Re: USDA forecast: record corn yield in the U.S.
Homesteader wrote:
lorenzo wrote:
Doom and gloomers are ....once again. But this has become a routine by now.
Another example of deathless prose that shall live on in infamy.
Obviously you are an exagerator. but anyway, here is an responsible response.
Ok, the highest or even second highest yield ever with the highest prices for food ever in history.
This is an accomplishment?
Thank you farmers? For what?
For depleting outr soil? We are already at peak corn production, the soil is being depleted with this GMO crapola and we can't even make as much as we used to and it has only been one year...
Thanks farmers? for what? For using oil to make fertizlizer and deplete our heritage? What are we going to do next year?
Because you are burning food for energy, and yet only make enough to make the 10% in each gallon.
Cornucopians are wrong once again.
Lorenzo, where do you come from? Are you working of an advertising agency?
Soon corn will double and triple and there won't even be any to eat.
we will then blame Loranzo. who told them to burn food to drive tons of steel around getting a gallon of milk from the store.
Last edited by dirthoser on Fri Aug 15, 2008 7:23 am; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 7:20 am Post subject: Re: USDA forecast: record corn yield in the U.S.
joewp wrote:
lorenzo wrote:
joewp wrote:
Um...
How can it be down by 6% but be a record yield? Last time I looked, the pertinent definition of "record" was "An unsurpassed measurement: a world record in weightlifting; a record for cold weather.", not something that is down 6% from last year.
Next we'll hear "Oil production set a record this year at 60mb/d, down only 7% from last year!"
Well, it's rather simple. I'll let you think about it a bit longer. I'm sure that, by the time you make it out of highschool, you'll have found the answer. Good luck.
Ad hominems don't really help to make your case, Lorenzo.
I recommend the *ignore button* joewp.
I've learned through experience there are some people in here who simply do NOT have anything worthwhile to add.
Don't bother with the Trolls they're a waste of time. _________________ joeltrout Oct-2008: Dow 13,000 in three years
Posted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 7:25 am Post subject: Re: USDA forecast: record corn yield in the U.S.
cube wrote:
joewp wrote:
lorenzo wrote:
joewp wrote:
Um...
How can it be down by 6% but be a record yield? Last time I looked, the pertinent definition of "record" was "An unsurpassed measurement: a world record in weightlifting; a record for cold weather.", not something that is down 6% from last year.
Next we'll hear "Oil production set a record this year at 60mb/d, down only 7% from last year!"
Well, it's rather simple. I'll let you think about it a bit longer. I'm sure that, by the time you make it out of highschool, you'll have found the answer. Good luck.
Ad hominems don't really help to make your case, Lorenzo.
I recommend the *ignore button* joewp.
I've learned through experience there are some people in here who simply do NOT have anything worthwhile to add.
Don't bother with the Trolls they're a waste of time.
Just because your doomer message about corn collapse didn't prove to be rational? Just because your doomer message about corn collapse is negated by its opposite: the second largest corn harvest in the history of the United States?
It's so easy to exclude Reason from a debate. This is rather typical for myths, conspiracy theories and fantasy discourses such as Peak Oil as some present it here. _________________ The Beginning is Near!
Last edited by lorenzo on Fri Aug 15, 2008 7:38 am; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 7:37 am Post subject: Re: USDA forecast: record corn yield in the U.S.
dirthoser wrote:
Homesteader wrote:
lorenzo wrote:
Doom and gloomers are ....once again. But this has become a routine by now.
Another example of deathless prose that shall live on in infamy.
Obviously you are an exagerator. but anyway, here is an responsible response.
Ok, the highest or even second highest yield ever with the highest prices for food ever in history.
This is an accomplishment?
Thank you farmers? For what?
For depleting outr soil? We are already at peak corn production, the soil is being depleted with this GMO crapola and we can't even make as much as we used to and it has only been one year...
I was more referring to the doom and gloom messages of "corn collapse" that had been going around here in PO.
As you know by now, most of these doomer predictions prove to be simplistic.
The USDA forecast and this corn case, clearly demonstrate this, once again.
Another point I tried to make is this: to obtain ultra-high yields -- in this era of ultra-high oil and fertilizer prices -- demonstrates the capacity of farmers to become more efficient.
A yield of 155 bushels per acre, while using less fertilizer, is simply amazing, and shows how the progress curve towards ever higher yields is far from over.
dirthoser wrote:
Thanks farmers? for what? For using oil to make fertizlizer and deplete our heritage? What are we going to do next year?
Farmers used less fertilizers, and obtained higher yields than any other year in the history of the corn yield record (one year excepted.)
Why would using fertilizers be so bad? It's the smartest thing to do, because it allows you to farm on less land, thus keeping your heritage.
Just imagine what would happen if farmers stopped using fertilizers. You'd need twice, maybe three or four times more land to reach similar output levels.
Fertilizers are one of the most environmentally friendly inventions in the history of mankind.
dirthoser wrote:
Cornucopians are wrong once again.
Right, you predicted the collapse of corn. The contrary happens. So who's wrong?
dirthoser wrote:
Lorenzo, where do you come from? Are you working of an advertising agency?
Reason has no need for an advertising agency. It sells itself. And it easily beats obscurantism.
dirthoser wrote:
Soon corn will double and triple and there won't even be any to eat.
Well, you already said corn output would collapse, and instead we get record yields and the second largest harvest in the history of the United States.
So I'm always a bit sceptical when I hear a doomer like you utter a sentence starting with the word "soon". We know that these funny predictions are often not only of a hilarious nature, but turn out to be confronted with a reality that is entirely the opposite.
So, go ahead, make any predictions. Nobody outside of the people on this forum will pay much attention to your "soon".
I say: soon, American farmers will harvest the second largest amount of corn in the history of America. _________________ The Beginning is Near!
Posted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 8:42 am Post subject: Re: USDA forecast: record corn yield in the U.S.
It's interesting that the record corn harvest was in 1933 during the height of the the depression.
Lorenzo, I guess monocrop agriculture doesn't help the working man after all, contrary to your techtopian predilections. _________________ ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap
Posted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 9:00 am Post subject: Re: USDA forecast: record corn yield in the U.S.
A lot of Strawman'ing going on here
Lorenzo, the situation is very simple
Record high prices + Declining Production = Much higher prices
Saying this is the second largest, largest, or off the charts record is irrelevant to the equation above. This is why I wanted to know about the Demand side because there is another simple equation
Demand Up + Production Down = Much higher prices
At the end of the day, the US can be producing mountains of corn, but if you can't afford it, you can't eat it.
And also as Frank the tank said
frankthetank wrote:
I'll wait until the combines are in the field before commenting.
There's a farmers saying about counting chickens. Its a very old wisdom and those that don't follow it eventually become Doomed.
as for this
lorenzo wrote:
Why would using fertilizers be so bad? It's the smartest thing to do, because it allows you to farm on less land, thus keeping your heritage..
There are many post around here about farmers attesting to the scarcity and high prices of fertilizer.
Without massive amounts of unnatural inputs (irrigation being one of them btw) modern agriculture is unsustainable. That also means the worlds 7Billion people supported by modern agriculture is also unsustainable.
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ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap 
