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Peakoil.com :: View topic - Poland-USA sign anti-missile treaty
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Poland-USA sign anti-missile treaty
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Plantagenet
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 10:04 am    Post subject: Re: Poland-USA sign anti-missile treaty Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

EnergyUnlimited wrote:
3. Reliable interceptor missiles technology is not there yet.

Actually, recent tests in the Pacific have been highly successful. Smile
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UncoveringTruths
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 10:19 am    Post subject: Re: Poland-USA sign anti-missile treaty Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Plantagenet wrote:
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
3. Reliable interceptor missiles technology is not there yet.
Actually, recent tests in the Pacific have been highly successful. Smile

Quote:
WASHINGTON (NNS) -- A network of land-, air-, sea- and spaced-based sensors confirms that the U.S. military intercepted a non-functioning National Reconnaissance Office satellite which was in its final orbits before entering the earth's atmosphere.
At approximately 10:26 p.m. EST, Feb. 20, a U.S. Navy AEGIS warship, USS Lake Erie (CG-70), fired a single modified tactical Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) hitting the satellite approximately 133 nautical miles over the Pacific Ocean as it traveled in space at more than 17,000 mph. USS Decatur (DDG-73) and USS Russell (DDG-59) were also part of the task force.

Navy Succeeds In Intercepting Non-Functioning Satellite
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:17 am    Post subject: Re: Poland-USA sign anti-missile treaty Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Plantagenet wrote:
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
3. Reliable interceptor missiles technology is not there yet.
Actually, recent tests in the Pacific have been highly successful. Smile

If by highly you mean "marginally"

Also they are utterly useless against MIRV/decoy tech that the Russians have long had.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:47 am    Post subject: Re: Poland-USA sign anti-missile treaty Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

gnm wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
3. Reliable interceptor missiles technology is not there yet.
Actually, recent tests in the Pacific have been highly successful. Smile
If by highly you mean "marginally" Also they are utterly useless against MIRV/decoy tech that the Russians have long had.

Of course. And the Russians have thousands of nuclear missiles, not just 10. Its just Russian propaganda that these 10 anti-missile units somehow threaten Russia.

The interceptors aren't intended to counter attacks by hundreds or thousands of Russian nuclear MIRVs. They are designed and intended to intercept a few missiles fired by rogue states like North Korea or Iran.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:54 am    Post subject: Re: Poland-USA sign anti-missile treaty Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Russian General threatens Poland with nuclear attack
"MOSCOW - A top Russian general said Friday that Poland’s agreement to accept a U.S. missile interceptor base exposes the ex-communist nation to attack, possibly by nuclear weapons, the Interfax news agency reported. ...

“Poland, by deploying (the system) is exposing itself to a strike — 100 percent,” Nogovitsyn, the deputy chief of staff, was quoted as saying.

He added, in clear reference to the agreement, that Russia’s military doctrine sanctions the use of nuclear weapons “against the allies of countries having nuclear weapons if they in some way help them.” Nogovitsyn that would include elements of strategic deterrence systems, he said, according to Interfax."

----------------

The Russian bear is showing its teeth and growling.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:00 pm    Post subject: Re: Poland-USA sign anti-missile treaty Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

To me the situation is pretty simple:
Russia wants more control over Eastern Europe and the Caucuses region.

The European Union also wants more control over these regions. EU membership is unquestionably better than being a satellite state of Russia. Everyone, including Putin, knows this.

Russia must stop the spread of the European Union if it wants to have any chance of regaining its former influence. Thus, they need to frighten the local populations of Eastern Europe. Scare the locals, they vote for appeasers, the EU loses influence, and Russia can swoop in and take control.

The Ukraine, Georgia, and Belarus are a mess and could easily fall under Russian control. Poland, unfortunately for the Russians, is strongly pro-western and is strong enough to avoid being taken back by the Russians.

This anti-missile treaty is a symbol of Poland's commitment to the West. Russia has to complain about it in order to scare, say, Ukraine from signing a similar treaty.
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nobodypanic
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:15 pm    Post subject: Re: Poland-USA sign anti-missile treaty Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

if our anti-missile technology is so utterly useless, then why are the russians making such a fuss?

it's either becuase it really isn't about our interceptors or because they are really afraid of them. take your pick.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:29 pm    Post subject: Re: Poland-USA sign anti-missile treaty Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

nobodypanic wrote:
if our anti-missile technology is so utterly useless, then why are the russians making such a fuss? it's either becuase it really isn't about our interceptors or because they are really afraid of them. take your pick.

They are concerned that many dozens of similar systems could be built within a decade or so and that such installations could encourage US to gamble first strike against Russia.

Other concern is that actual payload placed in silos could be nuclear tipped missiles, not interceptors.

Yet another concern is prospect of permanent loss of influence in countries hosting US installations (albeit energy related blackmail could still make a great misery there).
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:37 pm    Post subject: Re: Poland-USA sign anti-missile treaty Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Tyler_JC wrote:
Poland is a major ally of the United States and an important member of the European Union. I doubt Russia would be so foolish as to go after a country like that. It's one thing to step on a tiny, belligerent country like Georgia. It is quite another to attempt to take on a country under the protection of several nuclear powers.

I'm thinking back to 1939. I doubt many in the west believed that Germany would invade Poland then. Shock
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:47 pm    Post subject: Re: Poland-USA sign anti-missile treaty Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Tyler_JC wrote:
Poland, unfortunately for the Russians, is strongly pro-western and is strong enough to avoid being taken back by the Russians. This anti-missile treaty is a symbol of Poland's commitment to the West. Russia has to complain about it in order to scare, say, Ukraine from signing a similar treaty.

In reality, if Russians decided to invade Poland it is unlikely to the extreme that US would go to direct war with Russia over that, regardless of their treaty obligations etc.

That is particularly true, if by existing diplomatic channels a clear Russian message is sent to US stating that intervening means certain, full scale nuclear exchange.

Don't fool yourself. US will not commit suicide to protect Poland. It is also very unlikely that Polish army with about 100 fighter jets, most reliable of these being Russian MIG-29, could challenge Russia for long.

NB. Poland also have about 40 of F-16, but these are all the time having technical failures and about half of them is constantly out of service waiting for spare parts.

In reality within 2 or 3 weeks Polish army would be crushed (together with most of industrial infrastructure) and there would be no need for Russians to resort to nukes to achieve that.
BTW, I live in Poland.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 3:49 pm    Post subject: Re: Poland-USA sign anti-missile treaty Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

whatpeak wrote:
Tyler_JC wrote:
Poland is a major ally of the United States and an important member of the European Union. I doubt Russia would be so foolish as to go after a country like that. It's one thing to step on a tiny, belligerent country like Georgia. It is quite another to attempt to take on a country under the protection of several nuclear powers.
I'm thinking back to 1939. I doubt many in the west believed that Germany would invade Poland then. Shock

In 1939, Germany and Russia jointly invaded Poland. Cool
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 10:47 pm    Post subject: Re: Poland-USA sign anti-missile treaty Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Plantagenet wrote:
whatpeak wrote:
Tyler_JC wrote:
Poland is a major ally of the United States and an important member of the European Union. I doubt Russia would be so foolish as to go after a country like that. It's one thing to step on a tiny, belligerent country like Georgia. It is quite another to attempt to take on a country under the protection of several nuclear powers.
I'm thinking back to 1939. I doubt many in the west believed that Germany would invade Poland then. Shock
In 1939, Germany and Russia jointly invaded Poland. Cool

Good point. But Britain and France did not declare war on Russia, only Germany. Their treaty with Poland was against Germany.

The infamous Non-Aggression Pact between Hitler and Stalin. Russia was supposed to stay neutral and secretly take the Baltic states while Germany got Western Europe.

As shrewd as Stalin was he still trusted Hitler, who ended up betraying him by invading Russia.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:54 pm    Post subject: Re: Poland-USA sign anti-missile treaty Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

whatpeak wrote:
As shrewd as Stalin was he still trusted Hitler, who ended up betraying him by invading Russia.

Why do you think Stalin was shrewd?

He murdered millions of his own people and imprisoned tens of millions in the Gulag.

He was a paranoid nutjob who persecuted people because they were academics, or jewish, or had foreign relatives, etc. etc.

He murdered his own military general staff, weakening his own forces.

He murdered or imprisoned in the Gulag all personal and political opponents, including many of the original Bolsheviks such as Trotsky.

He murdered or imprisoned artists, and enforced a strict orthodoxy in the arts and music requiring all glorify his cult of personality.
He signed a secret military alliance with Hitler, pledging to jointly invade Poland, and then dividing up eastern Europe so the Russians could go on to invade Finland and the Baltic states.

He murdered thousands of Polish POW officers at Katyn Forest.
He then murdered or imprisoned in his Gulags millions of German POWs, Japanese POWs, Finnish POWs, Baltic citizens, as well as any Russians soldiers released by the Germans and even US and other allied POWs captured from the Germans.

Stalin was the greatest mass murderer of the 20th century. Exclamation
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:57 pm    Post subject: Re: Poland-USA sign anti-missile treaty Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Mass Murderers are usually pretty shrewd.

He didn't trust Hitler, he screwed Poland to buy time and land to defend against Hitlers inevitable invasion. Just as Britian did.
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Plantagenet
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 16, 2008 12:07 am    Post subject: Re: Poland-USA sign anti-missile treaty Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

idiom wrote:
Mass Murderers are usually pretty shrewd. He didn't trust Hitler, he screwed Poland to buy time and land to defend against Hitlers inevitable invasion. Just as Britian did

I respectfully disagree.
Stalin was a paranoid. He feared dissent of any kind, and he was so brutal he could only deal with by killing or imprisoning the unfortunate people he was currently obsessed with. There isn't anything shrewd or clever about destroying the fabric of your own society for no reason at all.

Also, there is no evidence Stalin didn't trust Hitler to keep their pact. In fact, Stalin ordered his communist stooges around the world to stop all criticism of the Nazis after the pact.....AND, TO PROVE THE POINT...there is historical evidence that Stalin was surprised and stunned when Hitler invaded Russia.

The pact between Stalin and Hitler allowed the two great mass murderers to jointly invade Poland, thereby starting WWII. Hitler and Stalin's pact set up a plan to divide eastern Europe between them, and after Poland Stalin went about invading other countries just as Hitler did.
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