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EnergyUnlimited
Fusion
Joined: May 15, 2006
Posts: 3395
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 Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2008 12:35 am Post subject: Re: Russia's Nuclear Threat To Poland (BREAKING) |
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| Plantagenet wrote: | | EnergyUnlimited wrote: | | it is a sad truth that Poles are often fighting ... their wars on both sides ... There is no reason why that story should not repeat itself again. |
Yes there is a reason. When Germany and Russia form an alliance to invade Poland, as happened in WWII, then the Poles have to fight the invaders on two fronts. |
What about WW I? Part of Poles were fighting in Austrian, part in Russian and part in German armies. Not that they were happy with that btw.
| Quote: | | However, Poland is currently part of an alliance with other western democracies (called NATO) formed to defend itself from Russia. Thus, at the present time, Poland is concerned only about an attack from the east (i.e. from Russia). |
As I have already said, US will not commit suicide to protect Poland.
So if Russian army invaded Poland and sent clear signal to Washington that US intervention there would imply certain nuclear exchange, it is unlikely to the extreme that US would intervene (eg send its army to Poland or attack Russia).
All what would probably happen is for US to be in actual state of war with Russia (actually US could even declare such a war), but not many shots would be fired.
All of foreign assets of Russia in US influence zone would be confiscated, few clashes on high seas would erupt and thats about it. |
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fletch_961
Tar Sands
Joined: Jan 31, 2008
Posts: 87
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| Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2008 1:41 am Post subject: Re: Russia's Nuclear Threat To Poland (BREAKING) |
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dude, from your link: | Quote: | I have attached for your information a diagram that shows the search coverage of the radar at Fylingdales with respect to both Poland and Iran. I have also plotted ballistic missile trajectories between Iran and Poland. The higher of the two trajectories uses a launch angle of 42° and the lower of the two shows a launch angle of 30°. The optimal trajectory (maximum range for a given burnout velocity) would have a loft angle of 37°.
This means that typical “minimum energy” trajectories from Iran to Poland would under fly the Fylingdales radar screen and never be seen. As such, a Czech or Polish missile defense site would need to have local radars and interceptors dedicated to self-defense. |
Strange that the government couldn't figure this out for themselves.
Or maybe they did.
| Quote: | | On August 14th, 2008, The United States of America and Poland announced a deal to implement the missile defense system in Polish territory, with a tracking system placed in the Czech Republic. The Russians responded by saying such action "cannot go unpunished." [27] |
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fletch_961
Tar Sands
Joined: Jan 31, 2008
Posts: 87
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| Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2008 1:50 am Post subject: Re: Russia's Nuclear Threat To Poland (BREAKING) |
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| Quote: | | So if Russian army invaded Poland and sent clear signal to Washington that US intervention there would imply certain nuclear exchange, it is unlikely to the extreme that US would intervene (eg send its army to Poland or attack Russia). |
Attacking a member of NATO implies a "certain nuclear exchange". As I have already said, US Russia will not commit suicide to protect attack Poland.
Mutually assured destruction is a b!tch. |
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Starvid
Fission
Joined: Feb 20, 2005
Posts: 2888
Location: Uppsala, Sweden
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| Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2008 2:20 am Post subject: Re: Russia's Nuclear Threat To Poland (BREAKING) |
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| Plantagenet wrote: | | GeneralGreen wrote: | | RU is the life line of PO. |
Russia is the lifeline of the entire EU. |
I'd rather say the EU is the lifeline of Russia. If we decide we don't need their gas, it becomes worthless which will very severly hurt the Russian economy.
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Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis. |
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idiom
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Aug 23, 2004
Posts: 574
Location: New Zealand
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| Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2008 3:00 am Post subject: Re: Russia's Nuclear Threat To Poland (BREAKING) |
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I dunno. If I was Poland I would be pretty scared about Nato Seeling me out during a second cuban Crisis or something similar.
E.g. to Avoid WW3 all parties agree that is is right that America should adjust Iran's governmental priorities and that Russia could certainly be a more effective partner to Poland than the EU or Nato can be. It happens to Poland again and again. |
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EnergyUnlimited
Fusion
Joined: May 15, 2006
Posts: 3395
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| Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2008 3:41 am Post subject: Re: Russia's Nuclear Threat To Poland (BREAKING) |
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| fletch_961 wrote: | | Quote: | | So if Russian army invaded Poland and sent clear signal to Washington that US intervention there would imply certain nuclear exchange, it is unlikely to the extreme that US would intervene (eg send its army to Poland or attack Russia). |
Attacking a member of NATO implies a "certain nuclear exchange". As I have already said, US Russia will not commit suicide to protect attack Poland. Mutually assured destruction is a b!tch. |
Well, I doubt that. US will not commit suicide to defend Poland. Poland had a similar treaty with the UK before WW II.
After German invasion not much followed. Treaties are signed now only to be broken later. |
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EnergyUnlimited
Fusion
Joined: May 15, 2006
Posts: 3395
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| Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2008 3:48 am Post subject: Re: Russia's Nuclear Threat To Poland (BREAKING) |
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| Starvid wrote: | | Plantagenet wrote: | | GeneralGreen wrote: | | RU is the life line of PO. |
Russia is the lifeline of the entire EU. |
I'd rather say the EU is the lifeline of Russia. If we decide we don't need their gas... |
...then Chinese will decide that they do.  |
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Starvid
Fission
Joined: Feb 20, 2005
Posts: 2888
Location: Uppsala, Sweden
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| Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2008 4:16 am Post subject: Re: Russia's Nuclear Threat To Poland (BREAKING) |
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| EnergyUnlimited wrote: | | Starvid wrote: | | Plantagenet wrote: | | GeneralGreen wrote: | | RU is the life line of PO. |
Russia is the lifeline of the entire EU. |
I'd rather say the EU is the lifeline of Russia. If we decide we don't need their gas... |
... then Chinese will decide that they do. |
The Chinese have been quite clear in that they are not ready to pay the gas price Russia demands. Furthermore exports to China would require a huge expansion of the pipeline system, which would cost staggering amounts of money (though one could argue the same is true for Europe investing itself away from Russian gas). We're talking about tens of billions of dollars, possibly hundreds of billions.
Russia could also massively invest in LNG trains, but if Europe bouycots Russian gas, chances are the US would do so to. And then they'd get huge transport costs and gas losses in transit to whatever markets they are aiming for. The investments needed here would be huge too.
So turning the gas issue into politics doesn't really make any sense for any side. Which is why the gas relationship has been perfect for the last 40 years.
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Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis. |
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Kristen
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jul 17, 2006
Posts: 299
Location: Minneapolis, Minnesota
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| Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2008 5:28 am Post subject: Re: Russia's Nuclear Threat To Poland (BREAKING) |
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| If Russia bombed Poland, wouldn't the aftershock affect its own population? It would be like committing suicide. |
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Concerned
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Sep 23, 2004
Posts: 1553
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| Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2008 5:34 am Post subject: Re: Russia's Nuclear Threat To Poland (BREAKING) |
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| Starvid wrote: | | Plantagenet wrote: | | GeneralGreen wrote: | | RU is the life line of PO. |
Russia is the lifeline of the entire EU. |
I'd rather say the EU is the lifeline of Russia. If we decide we don't need their gas, it becomes worthless which will very severly hurt the Russian economy. |
And you will heat your homes and run your industry with? Yes FF energy depletion is going to be a bitch.
Yeah yeah I know the "alternatives" are coming... Im still waiting...
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"Once the game is over, the king and the pawn go back in the same box."
-Italian Proverb |
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shanyu
Coal
Joined: Aug 17, 2008
Posts: 1
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| Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2008 7:35 am Post subject: Re: Russia's Nuclear Threat To Poland (BREAKING) |
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| EnergyUnlimited wrote: | | Starvid wrote: | | Plantagenet wrote: | | GeneralGreen wrote: | | RU is the life line of PO. |
Russia is the lifeline of the entire EU. |
I'd rather say the EU is the lifeline of Russia. If we decide we don't need their gas... |
then Chinese will decide that they do. |
And in fact they have already decided this. Along with Japanese and South Koreans. |
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EnergyUnlimited
Fusion
Joined: May 15, 2006
Posts: 3395
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| Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2008 11:43 am Post subject: Re: Russia's Nuclear Threat To Poland (BREAKING) |
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| Kristen wrote: | | If Russia bombed Poland, wouldn't the aftershock affect its own population? It would be like committing suicide. |
No. Consequences of fallout are over exaggerated on the West. Chernobyl was an equivalent of 300-400 Hiroshima bombs.
About 50 bombs of Hiroshima size would be enough to finish off Polish industrial and military infrastructure. On the top of it you could bomb when wind blows towards West. |
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the48thronin
Heavy Crude
Joined: May 30, 2008
Posts: 297
Location: On the highway, or the water somewhere!
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| Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 12:01 am Post subject: Re: Russia's Nuclear Threat To Poland (BREAKING) |
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| Quote: | | That is particularly true, if by existing diplomatic channels a clear Russian message is sent to US stating that intervening means certain, full scale nuclear exchange. |
One thing is certain...not even the Russians want a NUCLEAR EXCHANGE... histories are written by the winners... and the history of that exchange will be written by the cockroaches ( or if any survive the humans) of Brazil or Chile!
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Courtesy and Courage, Sincerity and Self-control, Honor and Loyalty...a Code to Live By!
Where is my wooden pitchfork and torch anyway? I may need them for a visit to the castle soon! |
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EnergyUnlimited
Fusion
Joined: May 15, 2006
Posts: 3395
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| Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 12:29 am Post subject: Re: Russia's Nuclear Threat To Poland (BREAKING) |
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| the48thronin wrote: | | One thing is certain...not even the Russians want a NUCLEAR EXCHANGE... histories are written by the winners... and the history of that exchange will be written by the cockroaches ( or if any survive the humans) of Brazil or Chile! |
So my argument goes.
Poland is not sufficiently valuable asset for US, to go for nuclear exchange over it.
So it would be surrendered to Russians.
NB.
My view is that geopolitical development will go in such direction that major powers are trapped is scenario where nuclear exchange is the only way out, so they will have to proceed with reluctance and a lot of whining and cross blaming before keys are turned, codes entered and buttons pressed. |
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idiom
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Aug 23, 2004
Posts: 574
Location: New Zealand
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| Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 12:34 am Post subject: Re: Russia's Nuclear Threat To Poland (BREAKING) |
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| Quote: | | Europe is not sufficiently valuable asset for US, to go to nuclear exchange over it. |
Its not Oil positive, Its banks are not cash positive, and the world didn't end when the U.S. let Russia have half of it. |
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