World crude oil production: Goin' up

OilFinder2

Note the trend since the middle of last year.

The decline of OPEC production seems to have been announced a bit prematurely.

Source: TOD
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Abundance - what a concept!

OilFinder2

A few other highlights . . .

Saudi production.

Iraq production.

China production.

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Abundance - what a concept!

EndSuburbia · Coal Joined: Jul 16, 2008 Posts: 9

I'm glad oilfinder is here to provide an opposing view to the doomers so we can look at the situation from a different perspective. However these graphs have been used by multiple other people to show that production has plateaued in many of these areas(except Iraq, which even Matt Simmons would admit is still increasing production.) And yes China is currently increasing their production. But the question is, for how long? It's only a matter of time before every source of oil in the world goes into irreversible decline. I saw it happen with the US in the seventies and in multiple other countries as well. Just because you have a few examples to support your cornucopian struggle to cling to this oil based society doesn't mean that they too won't soon be silouettes of Mount Kilamanjaro.

MadScientist · Heavy Crude Joined: May 19, 2004 Posts: 418

joeltrout · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Sep 19, 2007 Posts: 1317

The Oilwatch Monthly is my favorite monthly publication. I thought about posting this but figured I would let someone else be the whipping boy. Rolling Eyes

It is interesting that production does continue to increase. Just how far is yet to be seen. I am afraid with higher prices over last couple of years that more production than anticipated will come online. But we will see.

joeltrout

MadScientist · Heavy Crude Joined: May 19, 2004 Posts: 418

they've already cut back. pretty much as soon as the price reversed.
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"The future power is manpower"

joewp

For someone who supposedly likes to add to threads rather that start news ones, you seem to have missed the thread EIA's International Petroleum Monthly from where the data in that chart came. Here's my version of that chart:

(included in that thread)

As discussed in that thread, the data for this year has been continually revised downward as each month's new release has been issued. The "new peak" this May could only have happened since March's "new peak" was revised down to below May, 2005's peak.

Your touted "trend" since the middle of last year nicely coincides with the price spike since then, as extractors ramped up extraction to take advantage of the spike. But we seem to be seeing that the extractors are having a great deal of trouble exceeding the May, 2005 peak, even in the face of $100/bbl oil. Why do you think that is?

And for every China or Iraq graph you post, I can post a US, Mexico, North Sea, Indonesia, Venezuela or any of the other 60 or so countries that are long past their peak of oil extraction. You're grasping at straws in a feeble attempt to continue your cushy, fossil fueled, lazy-ass lifestyle. You're gonna hurt so bad when you find out the free ride is over and you're literally going to have to work for your food.
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Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb

Cashmere · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Mar 27, 2008 Posts: 1971

It's really quite simple.

I'll make it simple for all.

You live on an isolated island cut off from the rest of the world.

You have rocks in your back yard. They are small purple rocks. Only a few people on the island have them in their yards.

Over the years, there has been a steady demand for your rocks. You have sold them for a price of 2 dollars a rock.

You sell 10 rocks a day and make 20 dollars. You could put more rocks out, but you have discovered that putting more rocks out causes the price of the rocks to fall, and people will only pay 1.50 for them if they see that there are many more rocks out there.

You have plenty of rocks. In fact, you have so many rocks, you can't imagine that you'll run out of rocks anytime in your lifetime. Millions of rocks.

You have many children and many wives, and all of them want many things, which you can buy with the money you get from selling your rocks.

One day, you find that your rocks are selling for 3 dollars a rock.

You are very happy.

Then they are selling for 5 dollars a rock.

You are extremely happy.

You wake up a few days later and people are willing to pay 10 dollars for your rocks.

Unbelievable.

You wake up a few days later and now people are willing to pay 14 dollars for your rocks. What's more, you discover that, for the pretty purple rocks you possess, people will buy as many rocks as you put out! Glorious day.

You quickly deduce that you are now making 7 fold more money per rock. Things have never been so good, and, you reason, it would be a great time to sell as many rocks as possible, because, at 7 fold the price, if you double your daily rock production to 20 rocks a day, then you can make as much money in one year as you previously made in 14! You might never need to sell another rock!

But you don't.

You put out 10 rocks most days.
Some days you put out 9.
Some days you put out 11.

But never more than 11.

No matter how high the price goes, you put out your 10 rocks.

It turns out that one of three things are possible.

1. You have rocks in your head.
2. You can only find 10 rocks a day because you don't have as many rocks as you say you have.
3. You are saving your rocks for your children, even though you could sell your rocks for top dollar now and provide for your children with the massive profits you are reaping now.

It's 2.

It's simple.
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Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.

fiedag · Tar Sands Joined: Apr 20, 2006 Posts: 34

I'm confused. The world production in the chart at the top shows 74 mbpd. I thought world production has been flat at 85 mbpd. That's a big discrepancy. How can you explain it? Are my figures wrong?

Cashmere · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Mar 27, 2008 Posts: 1971

AirlinePilot

alokin · Intermediate Crude Joined: Aug 24, 2007 Posts: 885

But most graphs only call it "crude", no matter what type it is.

We are really on a plateau for a long time yet, at least since 2005.
The oil price at the moment leave most people to lean back and feel comfortable. But the clouds are brewing, especially as the financial crisis weakens the US and the West and other countries are gaining a lot of strength. And they all don not really like the US, and we as allies sit in the same boat.

TheDude

TOD member DownSouth has some interesting observations about the viability of EIA data: Permalink |. As some here are intimating, possibly there's a degree of political machination in the numbers. DS has noticed some real sharp discrepancies lately between Texas Railroad Commission data and what the EIA has published - owing to a recent change in EIA methodology. Might just be flawed accounting, of course. Also: EIA chief Guy Caruso steps down Sept. 3. Wonder if he'll have some stories to tell, ala his colleagues James Hansen and Christie Todd Whitman.
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Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?

Cashmere · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Mar 27, 2008 Posts: 1971

Would it come as anything other than expected if the .gov started cooking the oil books like they do everything else?

Throw in some hedonics?

You see, in 2009, vehicles got 10% more MPG, on average, so the .gov will adjust all crude oil numbers upwards by 10% to compensate.

Something like that.

Rolling Eyes

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Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.

Nano