Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 4:48 pm Post subject: Re: The Great Depression 2
malcomatic_51 wrote:
mgibbons19 wrote:
Do you have a pdf of that you'd be willing to share?
If you, or others, were interested I suppose I could post the first chapter or two. I would be thrilled to have my writing read by complete strangers. At present it is at a literary agents in London. I have not heard anything from them - but these things take time and the chances of it being published are frankly tiny. The plus was, it was a fascinating adventure to write.
You might want to pick a few people you feel comfortable with and have them critique it. Open posting of your material on the Internet, if you intend later to publish might not be the best thing. Then again a chapter or two is not the whole book. I would like to read it, I think we should expect a small genre to come out of peak oil, both futuristic, current, and historic novels and studies.
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 5:21 pm Post subject: Re: The Great Depression 2
I definitely wouldn't post it openly if you are hoping to get it published. However, having it critiqued by a few ppl you trust (ie complete strangers on a doomsday website), who promise not to distribute it should be ok.
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 2:27 pm Post subject: Re: The Great Depression 2
mgibbons19 wrote:
I definitely wouldn't post it openly if you are hoping to get it published. However, having it critiqued by a few ppl you trust (ie complete strangers on a doomsday website), who promise not to distribute it should be ok.
Joined: May 19, 2005 Posts: 813 Location: Merry Ol' USA
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 9:53 am Post subject: Re: The Great Depression 2
From Wiki:
Quote:
Marriner S. Eccles, who served as Franklin D. Roosevelt's Chairman of the Federal Reserve from November 1934 to February 1948, detailed what he believed caused the Depression in his memoirs, Beckoning Frontiers (New York, Alfred A. Knopf, 1951)[22]:
As mass production has to be accompanied by mass consumption, mass consumption, in turn, implies a distribution of wealth -- not of existing wealth, but of wealth as it is currently produced -- to provide men with buying power equal to the amount of goods and services offered by the nation's economic machinery. [Emphasis in original.] Instead of achieving that kind of distribution, a giant suction pump had by 1929-30 drawn into a few hands an increasing portion of currently produced wealth. This served them as capital accumulations. But by taking purchasing power out of the hands of mass consumers, the savers denied to themselves the kind of effective demand for their products that would justify a reinvestment of their capital accumulations in new plants. In consequence, as in a poker game where the chips were concentrated in fewer and fewer hands, the other fellows could stay in the game only by borrowing. When their credit ran out, the game stopped.
That is what happened to us in the twenties. We sustained high levels of employment in that period with the aid of an exceptional expansion of debt outside of the banking system. This debt was provided by the large growth of business savings as well as savings by individuals, particularly in the upper-income groups where taxes were relatively low. Private debt outside of the banking system increased about fifty per cent. This debt, which was at high interest rates, largely took the form of mortgage debt on housing, office, and hotel structures, consumer installment debt, brokers' loans, and foreign debt. The stimulation to spending by debt-creation of this sort was short-lived and could not be counted on to sustain high levels of employment for long periods of time. Had there been a better distribution of the current income from the national product -- in other words, had there been less savings by business and the higher-income groups and more income in the lower groups -- we should have had far greater stability in our economy. Had the six billion dollars, for instance, that were loaned by corporations and wealthy individuals for stock-market speculation been distributed to the public as lower prices or higher wages and with less profits to the corporations and the well-to-do, it would have prevented or greatly moderated the economic collapse that began at the end of 1929.
The time came when there were no more poker chips to be loaned on credit. Debtors thereupon were forced to curtail their consumption in an effort to create a margin that could be applied to the reduction of outstanding debts. This naturally reduced the demand for goods of all kinds and brought on what seemed to be overproduction, but was in reality underconsumption when judged in terms of the real world instead of the money world. This, in turn, brought about a fall in prices and employment.
Unemployment further decreased the consumption of goods, which further increased unemployment, thus closing the circle in a continuing decline of prices. Earnings began to disappear, requiring economies of all kinds in the wages, salaries, and time of those employed. And thus again the vicious circle of deflation was closed until one third of the entire working population was unemployed, with our national income reduced by fifty per cent, and with the aggregate debt burden greater than ever before, not in dollars, but measured by current values and income that represented the ability to pay. Fixed charges, such as taxes, railroad and other utility rates, insurance and interest charges, clung close to the 1929 level and required such a portion of the national income to meet them that the amount left for consumption of goods was not sufficient to support the population.
This then, was my reading of what brought on the depression
Let's see:
Concentration of wealth into too few hands? Check.
Reducing demand by reducing mass wealth? Check.
Stimulation of spending through massive debt creation? Check.
Debtors reducing consumption to meet obligations? Check.
Fixed costs absorbing greater amounts of disposable income? Check.
Pretty smart guy, if you ask me. And ripe conditions to produce the same results, only this time we're smack against resource depletion and massive competition of other developing countries for those resources. It's gonna be a bitch. _________________ After fueling up their cars, Twyman says they bowed their heads and asked God for cheaper gas.There was no immediate answer, but he says other motorists joined in and the service station owner didn't run them off.
Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 10:41 pm Post subject: Re: The Great Depression 2
mgibbons19 wrote:
I definitely wouldn't post it openly if you are hoping to get it published. However, having it critiqued by a few ppl you trust (ie complete strangers on a doomsday website), who promise not to distribute it should be ok.
publish: to make public.
I publish everything for almost zero cost on the Internet in 2 websites (deviantart and wordpress)... that counts as publishing. _________________ @deviantART @wordpress @hi5
Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 12:30 am Post subject: Re: The Great Depression 2
Well lets see, a Depression indicates a general lowering of an area of land in one meaning of the word, right? How about calling this one the Great SINKHOLE? Or you could mess with the adjective, and get Greater than Great and call it the GARGANTUAN Depression. Or fashion out a new Techy Word for the Dictionary, maybe a GIGAPRESSION? Or maybe borrow terminology from the Fundy Christians and call it the Economic Rapture or Financial Armageddon?
In any case, I agree with all the reasons given here by others as to why the mess we are walking into makes the Great Depression look like the Good Times. "Depression" just does not do this justice, what you are looking at is basically the complete collapse of an economic structure that has been building since around the mid-1600s. All the companies, all the Nation States are basically derivatives of what the British did with the East India Company, and this structure although damaged in the Great Depression still stood in its aftermath and was rebuilt, basically utilizing the tremendous resource of Big Oil. This resource does not exist to rebuild with again, and moreover the amount of debt created in the derivatives markets is far higher than the actual wealth or potential productivity of any nation in the aftermath of Big Oil. It cannot be repaid, it is irredeemable debt (read Antal Fakeete on the Twilight of Irredeemable Debt link . Although the Central Banks are all cooperating here to try to keep the Wealthy Wealthy, it just can't work because there is nowhere for the Capital to flow where it makes any money. EVERY investment is a losing investment. When the Equities started to Tank, Hedge Funds moved a large quantity of capital in the direction of commodities, however the problem is at the prices this speculation drove the commodities up to, nobody really could afford to buy them, except of course the Hedge Funds themselves. However, just what do you do with a million bushels of corn priced too high for people to afford to buy? You can't eat it yourself, there aren't enough mega rich folks to eat all that corn. So now Hege Funds which last year showed 10% Growth are now showing 10% decline in net worth as the value of the assets they bought declines in the marketplace. When you talk about the destruction of Paper Wealth that will occur as Fannie and Freddy go Belly Up, every last portfolio is going to eventually go to negative net worth here, there simply is no "safe" investment in which to drop those Billions in Paper Dollars.
This of course is the "Nightmare" scenario that the Bankers and Ben Bernanke and Henry Paulson seek to avoid, because in this one they don't just impoverish the Taxpayer, they themselves are impoverished as well. However, as I see it, they have gone so far into Economic Overshoot that this outcome is unavoidable now.
Such a complete spin down of an economic system that has lasted some 400 years and taken over on a Worldwide level is unprecedented in Human History. In previous Eras, as one Civilization went into Decline, another was on the Rise. This time, they ALL go down the Toilet TOGETHER, the ultimate outcome of Globalization.
When the dominoes really start to fall, I think you see EVERY economy, the Chinese, the Indian, the Russian, the EU all fall together in near unison. AS was quoted earlier in the thread "No one here gets out alive."
Of course the really Depressing part of this Depression is the fact that simultaneously and for good reason we are seeing a similar collapse going on in the ecosystem of the Earth. Folks here watching the Polar Ice Cap melting are pretty convinced this means not just a die of of the entire human species, but the die off of about every organism above the level of the Cockroach, sure to survive no matter WHAT I am not so certain of that hypothesis, certainly the Leading Indicator on this one would be the Fisheries, and if the fish die off completely then we are most certainly Doomed. However, though depleted the fisheries still are producing, and if the human die off is faster than the fish die off, the fish might rebound. They multiply in vast numbers, and they will adapt to higher levels of acidity in succeeding generations. This kind of feedback loop also operates in the ecosystem. In any event, a complete Ice Cap melt along with the Greenland Ice Sheet melting probably takes at least 3 more years, and I cannot possibly see how the economic system has that long to survive. Its in its Death Throes as we speak, its convulsing and foaming at the mouth. When Tax Time comes next year and the Government takes in about Zero in Revenue relative to the cost of Government, then TSHTF REALLY. Forget paying off the Irredeemable Debt, they won't be able to pay the Government Workers, including the Soldiers. China isn't gonna be loaning us money, they won't have money to loan. Just worthless inflated Paper, call it Yen, call it Yuan, call it Euro or call it a Dollar, its ALL worthless paper now.
A complete breakdown of this system means a complete breakdown of all Governments everywhere, and a complete violation of the Social Contract. It will be total Anarchy. Its the Zero Point, its where mathematics can no longer predict the outcomes. How we come out on the other side, or if we do is anybody's guess, but there is nothing Scientific about it.
Reverse Engineer
Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:43 am Post subject: Re: The Great Depression 2
ReverseEngineer,
I agree with your summation of the problems, and have also felt the weight of the possibilities. The outcome depends on many things, that is, the devil is in the details, for better or worse.
A few points keep nagging at the back of my mind. Humans are adaptable, hunger is a great motivator, and the marketplace is a hardy weed. (Dunno who said that.) As an engineer for GM in 1974, there was one guy between me and a layoff when business picked up again. I saw unemployment hit 24.6% in that county. Grass grew in the Mall parking lots, etc.. A friend and I thought that GM would be belly up within a few years, and we moved on. Well, we underestimated the durability of the dinosaur and the oil it fed on. So, I'm cautious about making doomer predictions.
But there is no doubt in my mind that you have the direction right! _________________ Local fix-it guy..
Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 7:58 am Post subject: Re: The Great Depression 2
malcomatic_51,
Count me in too. I can't think of a better review arena for you then here. We will be brutal for sure but it will be done with love in our collective hearts.
Joined: Oct 03, 2004 Posts: 566 Location: Washington State
Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 8:17 am Post subject: Re: The Great Depression 2
Tyler_JC wrote:
Americans want their leaders to focus more on domestic problems and less on policing the world.
While that is true, the military industrial complex that runs the US is only concerned with the accumilation of wealth and power. When/if the citizens of the US get tired of playing their rigged games, they (corps) will take their ball and go elsewhere, leaving behind a third world shell. _________________ This is where everybody puts profound words written by another...or not so profound words written by themselves
Highlander 2007
Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 8:25 am Post subject: Re: The Great Depression 2
patience,
I'm with you at least in spirit. I went through a similar bust as you in the oil patch in the mid 80's. The industry eventually rebounded with tech advances leading the charge. On the negative side though, I don't think our economy has never been this complex and interdependent. And the greatest dependency is upon personal spending. Most are aware of the huge shift away from manufacturing to service economy. As such, we are ever so more dependent upon discretionary spending. You may eventually have to buy a new car or fridge, etc. But cutting back on the nonessentials will be much easier. And this brings us back to consumer confidence. It's difficult to imagine that whenever the reality of PO settles into the general population that it won't drastically change spending habits. Who knows....we might actually become a nation of savers.
It takes industry/business many months or even years to change profiles. But the American public can change its spending profile drastically in weeks. The adjustment to higher gasoline prices showed that. I know our economy has survived down turns in the steel, auto, etc, industries. How odd that our greatest financial meltdown could be caused by declines in the Starbucks, restaurants and movie theaters just to mention a few. While we can live without these businesses, the 10's of millions of folks employed by and invested in these companies cannot. We’ve already have taken a big hit in the other big leg of our economy: the housing market. And it appears to betting worse and continues to threaten many of the biggest financial institutions. Combine that weakness with a declining spending base and it’s easy to imagine and truly worse case scenario.
Joined: Jun 02, 2008 Posts: 560 Location: Someplace where the sun does not shine
Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 10:13 am Post subject: Re: The Great Depression 2
EXACTLY, there are some who are counting their chickens before they hatch! Obumba has been slipping in the polls as of late, now they are running pretty even.
Joined: May 06, 2008 Posts: 442 Location: Omicron Ceti 3
Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 11:34 am Post subject: Re: The Great Depression 2
malcomatic_51 wrote:
In my post-PO novel, which takes place in the mid 2070s, it is remembered as The Great Collapse. People bicker all the time over what happened to the world of jets, computers, the state and its health care and all the rest. A few grasp that energy was the fundamental, but even in 2076 there are still economists to smother history.
Joined: May 06, 2008 Posts: 442 Location: Omicron Ceti 3
Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 11:36 am Post subject: Re: The Great Depression 2
Cloud9 wrote:
There are some similarities between 2009 and 1929. Both depressions were preceded by a housing bust. Both depressions were accompanied by calls for trade barriers and isolationism. Both depressions resulted in the evaporation of billions of dollars in paper wealth. Both depressions resulted in massive lay offs and unemployment. Both depressions were precipitated by reckless speculation. Both depressions resulted in massive property loss by the middle class. Both depressions threatened hundreds of banks.
Cloud 9: It's interesting how you refer to 2009 in the past tense! It's as though you are so certain it's going to happen that it has become an historical fact, even though we're still in the summer of 2008!
Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 12:58 pm Post subject: Re: The Great Depression 2
DoomWarrior, Cloud9 is undoubtedly confident! With pretty good reason, I'd say.
ROCKMAN,
Maybe I just want to have some hope for the future. What you say is true--we have never had so many negatives. The best I hope for is a slow slide, without any major wars, but I'm afraid the wars will come, and waste precious resources, time, and opportunities, beyond the body count.
I would like to see the world remember how to live in a sustainable manner, and get there with a minimum of pain, but I truly don't see that happening. Leaders, so called, only seek their own ends, to the detriment of all else, so wars it will be, and resources wasted.
My best shot at contributing to a better future is two kids who know how it ought to work, and have a broad knowledge base of how to get from here to there. At 62, I don't expect to live to see a stable, sustainable future, but I hope to do what I can to ease the transition. _________________ Local fix-it guy..
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