JD's Peak Oil Debunked blog says, Oil is finite, will peak

zeke · Heavy Crude Joined: Dec 07, 2007 Posts: 185

I'm not sure where "doomerism" begins and "well-reasoned realistic evaluation" leaves off, but I know that many folks elsewhere online and in RT consider me to be a doomer simply because I talk about the coming time when we can not and will not live as we do now, and that we ought to use our big, giant brains to make the change NOW rather than postponing it til the last minute, like so many over-indulged children.

I am skeptical about the chances that we WILL grow up and start doing the the right thing, and I guess if that makes me a doomer, so be it.

And believe me, I am *poignantly* aware of "all the things we could do to help ourselves." for one thing, I have been both a booster and practitioner of bike commuting all the way back when it wasn't fashionable, and I have the road rash to prove it.

I'm not sitting here wringing my hands, digging a bunker stocked with 10 years' supply of guns, ammo and jerky, but I am making changes based on a highly uncertain future, and not optimistic about the chances that a significant % of the population will grow up and join together.

It's prbly a good thing that politics are left mostly out of the discussion here. I choose to ignore most of the caustic remarks against what I consider to be the better of roughly two political factions in the US simply because that's not my purpose in coming here.

There is starting to be an uptick in blame, I've noticed, and while I won't mention who's blaming and who's getting the blame, I will say that the blamees are being credited for crippling our ability to bootstrap ourselves out of this energy mess, and if only A, B, and C, we wouldn't need foreign oil.

I expect this kind of blaming to begin spiking over the next few weeks.

I also recognize that the availability and reliability of data is pretty squishy. for example, you hear one thing, then another thing is what pans out. Numbers are highly volatile, few people in authority tell the truth, and so we're left with our own understanding of what the truth might be, plus our knowledge of how people and groups behave when things get tough.

That tends to depress one.

This is a culture in which a poorly-paid store clerk can have the snot beaten out of him or her merely for telling a frazzled customer that the store is out of that year's hot Xmas toy.

When you understand this fully, you find it hard to be encouraged by notions that scarce cheap oil and all it brings with it will inspire the people around you to begin acting like the ultimate in evolution.

So, I'll accept the label of "Doomer" if the categorization must be that way...either Box A or Box B. For many it must be that way.

I'll reject the lumping of me into some group out of sheer disgust the lumper feels over the situation we're in, but not having clearly thought about how and why we ARE here.

To those who have not put in the serious work of doing that thinking, I say; make yourselves a large pot of coffee, turn off all the computers, tee vee and radio, go to a quiet place, and have yourselves a nice, long, earnest think.

thank you for reading.

Z
_________________
Discuss sustainability at www.ThinkPlan.org

ROCKMAN

Zeke,

I don’t think you’re really to far of the track that most here also see. Some variations, of course, on how severe or how quickly. Debating those details hold little interest to me. Even if we magically came up with those measures correctly, would society/politicians accept and act upon them? Given the lack of meaningful response to the precursors of PO I wouldn’t be very optimistic.

It’s also human nature to use these circumstances to take shots at one involved party or another: Big Bad Oil, greedy consumers. crooked/stupid politicians, selfish foreigners, etc. To some degree, most of us have to admit a little quilt along those lines. As far as those who do find the blame game as the main issue: fine…everyone can have their own opinion. I also try to avoid, though not always successful, getting pulled into such arguments. I don’t consider myself a doomer either nor do I care to argue that point either. I do fore see very difficult times ahead for the globe and, to a lesser extent, the US. I think the perceived pain in the US will be very great owing to how fixed we are into a rather luxurious lifestyle compared to the rest of the world. I also feel that we, collectively, will not react to positively, at least initially, to that lifestyle being degraded.

Nor am I a cornucopian either. There will be solutions to diminish the pain of PO when it hits with a vengeance but I also think I have a pretty good handle on the scalability of the issue and thus not very optimistic on the large scale implementation of all the “fixes”. Yes, in 20 or 30 years huge advances could be made. But in the short term, I think society will demand much quicker fixes if we sudden hit that cliff as opposed to the long down hill slope. And for me, that’s the real horse race to watch: how quickly, and consistently, will the negative aspects of PO be thrust upon us. Some might be right to call me a doomer in one sense: throughout recorded history man has consistently proved his willingness to swap blood for resources. Perhaps mankind has suddenly evolved above that level just in the nick of time. Perhaps. Again, your question is valid: "doomerism vs. well-reasoned realistic evaluation"

thuja

Ayoob- I am a "doomer" myself in that I think we are nearing a break point in which civilization as we know it will end and we will undergo a collapse.

However, I disagree with a fair amount of doomers in terms of what that means. I agree with JD that Peak Oil knowledge can bring out a more culty viewpoint about the future. But he spends inordinate amounts of posts trying to dispel the idea that some serious trouble is coming down the pike. I find the doomers at least to be quite a bit more knowledgable...or at least honest...than him.

AirlinePilot

I'm a doomer for one reason really. Its not because I believe that we will see "Mad Max" anytime soon.

I'm a doomer becasue I see that there are no large scale mechanisms with which to deal with even a moderate decline in oil production If you don't do something about it before any real problems crop up. I think as Bhaktiari said, we are already moving into the first phases of the effects of PO.

In case you hadn't been paying attention there are already several industries involved in their death throes, one of which I've chosen as a livelyhood. They are in that position largely due to high energy costs due to supply/demand issues and the inability to cope with same.

I agree with Rockman here and probably threadbear too. I dont see the latest price spike as anything other than market volatility as it digests what the possible prospects of Peak Oil mean. This is not the final runup in price as we go "over the edge", it's far from it yet.

I think folks throw around the term "Doomer" a bit loosely. I agree that for me it means that sometime in the near future our entire paradigm will begin a change from which we appear to not be able to adapt to. I do believe that there may still be some time left to "manage" things better than remaining reactionary, but as time goes on we fail on an ever larger scale as each quarter and year passes. Without significant leadership and action to meet PO and its effects the solutions to the problem appear more and more out of reach.

I believe thats doomer enough for most here without resorting to Thunderdome. I think "Children of Men" bad, and thats plenty bad enough IMHO.

burtonridr · Intermediate Crude Joined: Aug 03, 2007 Posts: 763

TheDude