Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 10:19 pm Post subject: Re: About Chris Skrebowski's report on 4% decline
waldo wrote:
Just for fun, this is my prediction for world crude oil production, just from simple curve fitting of all nations (peak of 12-month averaged at 74 Mb/d in late 2005). We have a second lower peak in early 2008, then downhill:
Your figures might be changed. We have a new crude oil production level according to the Oilwatch Monthly.
Posted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 1:52 am Post subject: Re: About Chris Skrebowski's report on 4% decline
evilgenius wrote:
Of course, if the export land model holds (why shouldn't it) then the curve will be parabolic, not linear. The rate will increase at a rate of increase peculiar to domestic demand in producing countries. This will be worse in OPEC countries, I think.
But with the global economy in a steep depression, I don't think that demand can keep on rising in oil-producing countries for long, at least in countries that import most of their food.
We might even see a global barter economy where Western nations send food and other commodities to pay for OPEC oil. _________________ "The progress of civilization:
bondage --> spiritual faith --> courage --> liberty --> abundance --> complacency --> apathy --> dependence --> bondage." - Alexander Tyler
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3626 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 2:06 am Post subject: Re: About Chris Skrebowski's report on 4% decline
World Production 2000-07. Doubt 2008 will register as much more than a slight blip here. This gives a bit more of a big picture view - it was simple enough to ramp up to the plateau, but we're not rising above it, no matter how much high prices deliver capital to invest in E&P. The slight downturn in 2002 is curious as well, 1999 also shows a bit of loss if you graph the whole shebang back to 1980. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
Posted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 12:14 pm Post subject: Re: About Chris Skrebowski's report on 4% decline
I'd like to open up the discussion to a possible new term: APO = artificial peak oil. Just today Bloomberg reported a statement from the OPEC chair: OPEC should consider Venezuela’s recommendation to reducing production rates in order to "balance" the supply/demand dynamics currently in place. That the market is currently “over supplied”. Over supplied…does that mean the refiners are buying more oil then they can process and sell? Wow…they are doing a great job of hiding that huge inventory gain.
Whether this is the beginning of OPEC finally becoming a truly functional cartel or even if it’s years away, eventually OPEC will voluntarily reduce exports before PO is reached IMHO. If only half the world demand can afford $200 oil then OPEC can reduce lifting 50% and maintain the same income as they get from $100+ oil today and also double the life expectancy of their reserves in the process. The political/military response to such a policy might be severe but remember the half of the world that could afford $200 oil also has most of the military power. I don’t the KSA would be too worried about the EU invading them especially with China and the US having their back.
Just a wacky rambling thought brought on by low blood sugar.
Joined: May 06, 2005 Posts: 210 Location: North Texas
Posted: Wed Nov 05, 2008 5:50 pm Post subject: Re: About Chris Skrebowski's report on 4% decline
chris-h wrote:
As for USA my gut feeling is that Texas will declare independence. It will still have oil left for some rich guys. And they are going to build a huge fence to exclude all the rest.
Eh we already have canyons, rivers, and fences and it doesn't keep many people out. And now we're supposed to keep out those people who have enjoyed life 10 times more comfortable that those to our south? Not a chance. They will be piling over whatever fence is constructed to get a bit of air-conditioning or clean, crisp glass of water. Texas seceding won't do anyone any good but the fence building companies.
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