Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:13 am Post subject: Re: World crude oil production: Goin' up
Well, if oil production is still going up, I can't wait to see what prices will be like when it starts going down! You have really got to admit that this 300 000 bpd production increase above 2005 is no comfort when prices are beyond anyone's imagination just a few years ago. Your constant cheer leading of supply, Oilfinder, is comforting and admirable, but does not say much for your understanding of the supply/demand situation.
Exports are most likely still down. The biggest gain in available oil exports has come from demand destruction, not rising production. Clearly the price of oil now reflects the demand response instead of the supply response. Supply does not meet demand when the price is doubling every 2-3 years.
With OPEC even discussing supply cuts at these prices, it is obvious that their early 2008 supply resonse was only intended to calm market fears, not to bring supply and demand into balance. They have been and will continue to allow the price to increase as quickly as the global market can tolerate without resulting in economic collapse. That we have avoided a global recession at $100+ is a surprise to most given previous predictions when oil was at $30.
OPEC is in a situation where they cannot invest their petrodollars internally fast enough to meet their income. Investment in foreign economies is a bad idea when high oil prices raise the risks of recession. OPEC's savings have been greatly damaged by the US financial crisis and the falling dollar. There is no financial incentive to overproduce their limited reserves when the return is just more petrodollars than they have use for. It is wasteful at both the production and profit ends of the business.
China and Saudi Arabia now risking damaging their reservoirs at these production levels because the risks of over production a less than the risks of economic chaos in the short term. Once it is clear that $100+ oil is tolerable and sustainable, you can expect production to return to more sustainable levels. Keep in mind that SA cut its own quota in 2007 and cut its production even further to keep prices above $50 barrel. They will likely do the same thing in 2009 to defend $100 if they have to.
Joined: Aug 19, 2004 Posts: 86 Location: Austin (but moving east soon)
Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 5:58 am Post subject: Re: World crude oil production: Goin' up
Perhaps these graphs are providing me false hope, but I still hold onto it.
It isn't hope for society to make some sort of miraculous turn-around; that seems silly at this point. It's hope that things stay normal-ish enough for a bit longer so that we have a bit more time to prepare. Selfish, perhaps.. but honest.
Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:33 am Post subject: Re: World crude oil production: Goin' up
It depends on your doom rating. I dont expect a global economic collapse before 2050. I do expect peak oil in the next few years. These graphs are reassuring to those expecting riots in the streets any day now. To me, they are just confirmation this peak oil is going to be a slow, agonizing process. Keep up your preps, but learn to relax. Both are going to be very useful skills.
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 2608 Location: South of Atlanta
Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 12:52 pm Post subject: Re: World crude oil production: Goin' up
Nano wrote:
The 2005 peak will stand only if serious trouble erupts that would actually destroy, delay or shut-in existing projects on a broad scale. If not, it seems to me that 100 mbpd will be produced at or around the 2012-2015 timeframe. In fact, I believe the original IEA oil production forecasts out ot 2030 could actually be achieved, if it wasn't for "geopolitical peak oil" and the developing shortage of skilled oil workers, but of course the decline after 2030 would be that much steeper.
I dont share that hope Nano. It is looking like even if all goes perfectly over the next few years we will be lucky to break 90-93mbpd. I can possibly see that, but I believe that with all of the indications, it just will not be that much longer until one or several of the larger Saudi fields goes into decline similar to Mexico's Cantarell.
I think that any estimate over @90mbpd has to assume that there is no unrest or other major disruption to the Middle East. With the Iran situation and what is going on in the Caspian region, I just dont believe it can be pulled off.
At some point those problems will flare up enough to cause major disruption. Its the nature of the beast and we are it.
I do respect Koppelear's opinions but even though he is a very smart guy, he is still only 23. While I admire his work, you have to adjust for that lack of experience.
Joined: Apr 09, 2007 Posts: 6376 Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 1:08 pm Post subject: Re: World crude oil production: Goin' up
Matt Simmon's book "Twilight in the Desert" shows that the engineers at Saudi Aramco don't produce their oil fields "flat out", except when the Kingdom's rulers order them to do so for political reasons.
The Saudi rulers pledged to increase Saudi oil output in response to Bush's visit, and they did so.
However, Simmon's book also shows that pushing production at Ghawar to the highest possible levels is usually only done for short periods of time, and it tends to damage the oil field and reduce future production rates.
About 2/3 down the long trail of comments, Nate Hagens, a very impressive analyst over there points out that the really important moment is not so much peak oil but rather the moment when we can get the maximum amount of energy from the oil that is extracted. Based mostly on various prices, he concluded that this peak in available energy happened back in 2000-2001.
This is a very important concept, developed by our shortonoil and others, that does not get enough attention or discussion. Perhaps that is because it is a bit more abstract than peak oil, since you can (in imagination at least) "see" oil, while you can't see energy, much less the point at which energy from oil peaks.
Has anyone seen other experts or others opine about this concept?
BTW, I really liked bjwillia's quip: "Well, if oil production is still going up, I can't wait to see what prices will be like when it starts going down!" Lots of good points brought up by him/her and by many others.
About 2/3 down the long trail of comments, Nate Hagens, a very impressive analyst over there points out that the really important moment is not so much peak oil but rather the moment when we can get the maximum amount of energy from the oil that is extracted. Based mostly on various prices, he concluded that this peak in available energy happened back in 2000-2001.
This is a very important concept, developed by our shortonoil and others, that does not get enough attention or discussion. Perhaps that is because it is a bit more abstract than peak oil, since you can (in imagination at least) "see" oil, while you can't see energy, much less the point at which energy from oil peaks.
Has anyone seen other experts or others opine about this concept?
We talked about it a lot with the quality of coal going down. We may have hit max energy on coal as well. _________________ The oil barrel is half-full.
Joined: Jan 16, 2005 Posts: 322 Location: Delft, Netherlands
Posted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 6:26 am Post subject: Re: World crude oil production: Goin' up
AirlinePilot wrote:
At some point those problems will flare up enough to cause major disruption. Its the nature of the beast and we are it.
Obviously, but that's really nothing new. In fact this has been the situation for the past 30 years if you think about it.
Quote:
I do respect Koppelear's opinions but even though he is a very smart guy, he is still only 23. While I admire his work, you have to adjust for that lack of experience.
Excuse me, but I doubt you know his work, or else you'd know he doesn't actually voice much of an opinion, especially since his celebrity has been growing in The Netherlands. (Interviews in newspapers/TV/Radio) Actually, he is a very modest person who spends his time collating data, churning out graphs and compiling overview reports, which is exactly why I like him so much.
In short, I don't see exactly what part of his work is open to be adjusted to account for his young age and lack of experience. Besides, in the 'Peak Oil discussion', age isn't really an important factor IMO.
Anyone who has spent two or three years tracking this issue of Peak Oil pretty much knows all there is to know, if you have an IQ of at least 120-130 and know your basic science, modern world history and economics. I'm sure Koppelaar is such a person, what with being a Dutch university student in an applied science field.
About 2/3 down the long trail of comments, Nate Hagens, a very impressive analyst over there points out that the really important moment is not so much peak oil but rather the moment when we can get the maximum amount of energy from the oil that is extracted. Based mostly on various prices, he concluded that this peak in available energy happened back in 2000-2001.
This is a very important concept, developed by our shortonoil and others, that does not get enough attention or discussion. Perhaps that is because it is a bit more abstract than peak oil, since you can (in imagination at least) "see" oil, while you can't see energy, much less the point at which energy from oil peaks.
Has anyone seen other experts or others opine about this concept?
BTW, I really liked bjwillia's quip: "Well, if oil production is still going up, I can't wait to see what prices will be like when it starts going down!" Lots of good points brought up by him/her and by many others.
I predict a price of 1 ration coupon/gallon in 5 years.
Ethanol proponents claim EROEI is a spurious creation of the petroleum industry to slander their fine product! I always thought it was mostly a roundabout way of describing something as ultimately unprofitable, which is the only benchmark an investor would apply, now or ever. It has the tinge of Green to it, which to my way of thinking precludes it from gaining a foothold in the world of big business. Or so it seems to me. It is a useful analytical tool for sure, but you have to jump in with both feet to start seeing the world as a networked system of energy flows. I think of Heinberg admitting that he never thought of energy much until the late 90s - like everyone else, he ascribed our glitzy world's wonders to technology.
Also the conclusion you derive from making a few EROEI calculations of, oh, massive ethanol or tar sands production, is that they're unsustainable medium term, never mind long. How're you going to get Cramer frothing at the mouth on Mad Money with that kind of admission?
PS Koppelear is very sharp. I couldn't care less how wet behind the ears (=young ) he is. Actions and Deeds. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
Posted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 4:22 pm Post subject: Re: World crude oil production: Goin' up
kublikhan wrote:
We talked about it a lot with the quality of coal going down. We may have hit max energy on coal as well.
The problem w/ max energy given some process is that at best it includes the exergy of a particular energy source, for instance via emergy, but AFAIK doesn't address the efficacy. Granted, this to a large part depends on social and economic relationships such as monetary and opportunity costs, but it seems like a huge blind spot. _________________
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 2608 Location: South of Atlanta
Posted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 5:18 pm Post subject: Re: World crude oil production: Goin' up
I dont think Koppelear is enough of a doomer, particularly because he is so young. I see far too much of what I'd call "optimism" in things he has written. Ive read a good bit of what I can find by him available online.
Defintiely a sharp individual, no disagreement there at all and I meant no disparagement towards the man.
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 2608 Location: South of Atlanta
Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 8:50 pm Post subject: Re: World crude oil production: Goin' up
Oilfinder, I don't deny that the number may be going up but as joewp is so fond of pointing out hindsight is twenty twenty. Your completely missing the point.
Here's my extrapolation (the chart I used only went to early 07)of the moving average. While you'll notice a slight uptick right near the end, its hardly earth shattering and points towards one thing only. We are still on a plateau when you look at the averages or pull out just a few years and a couple million barrels worth on your snipped chart.
You have to acknowledge the work of many others both here, at TheOildrum, and ASPO. It's becoming very evident that each year the struggle to get a few hundred thousand more barrels/day is killing us. It costs too much and the farther along we go the more apparent it becomes that EROEI is a stone cold Biatch.
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1424 Location: Seattle
Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 9:08 pm Post subject: Re: World crude oil production: Goin' up
AP, it would appear that your 12-month average plateau, to put it bluntly, is no big deal. In case you haven't noticed, there is currently an excess of crude oil on the market and prices have crashed 50% in just 3 months.
If demand has peaked and so has the price, who cares what production does? It hardly supports the peaker argument if demand is struggling to rise as much - if not moreso - as is production, resulting in a glutted market and a crashing price.
Here's peak oil for ya - peak oil price.
BTW I notice that your graph shows the end of a decline in 2002 which was followed by a rapid rise. Just because production goes down, does not mean it will go down permanently and forever. _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Suncor had previously planned to spend $10-billion in 2009, but will now spend only $6-billion, financed from the company's cash flow rather than from debt markets. The bulk of the spending cuts will fall on Voyageur, meaning that the project's upgrader will now be finished in 2013, not 2012. Voyageur will nearly double Suncor's output to 550,000 barrels a day when complete.
Quote:
As valuations have fallen amid the financial crisis, the cost of building Fort Hills is now more than the combined $19-billion market value of the consortium partners, forcing them to look at ways to defray the huge capital expenditures. "This is just good management," said FirstEnergy Capital Corp. analyst William Lacey. "The approach [these firms] are now adopting takes some of the strain out of the system and puts more balance into the discussion between corporations and labour."
_________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
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) he is. Actions and Deeds.
