Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:40 am Post subject: Cars the next generation
By 2010 Mercedes plans to introduce an all electric Smart. Also Nissan plans to unveil there all electric Maxim by then and Mitsubishi also has an electric under development.
Price hasn't been determined yet but i suspect it will be up there. Probably not as high as the Tesla Roadster though.
Posted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 2:24 am Post subject: Re: Cars the next generation
There are only 15 months left until 2010. 27 months till the end of 2010.
Any electric car that is produced by any vendors in the next 15 months is going to be a prototype in spot markets only.
I'd guess we are 3-5 years away, minimum, from seeing enough EV to fill the demand that will no doubt exist.
Unless the EVs all cost 40 grand, like the Volt, in which case . . . .
My guess is we'll hit a lithium wall well before we see a fleet of EVs. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Joined: Oct 12, 2004 Posts: 1012 Location: In the suburban sea of strangers
Posted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:42 pm Post subject: Re: Cars the next generation
In the coming time of scarce energy, I find it hard to believe we will have enough spare manufacturing capacity and power generation capacity to get everybody driving around in electric cars. We will be struggling to keep our food, water, heating, cooling, and sanitation systems going. We will make other arrangements for getting around, which will include getting around much less than we are used to.
Kunstler is absolutely right about this:
"As we stumble into the future of a permanent global energy crisis, an interesting delusional theme has taken shape among the public and virtually all our leaders in politics, business, and even science: the obsessive notion that it's all about keeping our cars running by other means, at all costs. This is very unfortunate because it will be a colossal act of futility." _________________ The battle to preserve our lifestyle has already been lost. The battle to preserve our lives is just beginning.
Posted: Fri Aug 15, 2008 4:31 pm Post subject: Re: Cars the next generation
Well put, NP. Car culture has got to go. But on the way there, many will look to stop gaps like electric cars. One potential advantage of such a move is that it could provide a large, disperse storage capacity for wind/solar generated electricity. The danger of course is that a large new electric demand from EVs will be used as a reason to build more coal plants. As we have seen with bio-fuels, good intentions do not necessarily lead to the intended results.
Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:55 pm Post subject: Re: Cars the next generation
Tesla, who already have an all electric car on the road, the Roadster, has an EV sedan in the works, the WhiteStar. I don't know how much it will cost but the Roadster is like $100k.
California based Aptera plans to begin production later this year for there Typ-1 electric prototype. It is a strange design with solar roof panels and a 10 kwh battery pack.
Calgary based Motive has secured funding for their Switch prototype but haven't decided yet if it will be electric or hybrid.
Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 7:21 pm Post subject: Re: Cars the next generation
I read an article about the development of the Chevy Volt that shows clearly GM's desperation. They still are working out the battery details. But, as the battery pack is so heavy, and space consuming, that would imply that much of the final engineering of the car will be delayed, and in turn vehicle testing and safety certification will be delayed, and then production tools will wind up being a crash program. 2010 is just around the corner in auto production terms.
Unfortunately, this is how a good idea can end up becoming a lemon in production. I recall being with GM back in the early 80's when they rushed the four speed automatic into production and never quite got around to implementing the test equipment properly at the transmission plant. (By the way, this "MD8" transmssion was part of an antidote to increase fuel mileage too.) Ultimately, this project compression led to flaws found only after final vehicle assembly, then an entire shipping yard full of trucks needing rework and then closing production for three weeks which caused us to have rail cars full of parts spanning over railroad yards as far away as 100 kilometres from the assembly plant. Also, high numbers of repairs needed on sold vehicles to replace faulty torque converters. In other words, a massive fiasco.
We had to change the pickup bed for a trunk to meet the state's bureaucratic regulations. It's ok, because we solved a lot of problems with that modificiation.
I was just driving it around. It sure is fun. It should cost around a penny a mile to drive, and less if it's a sunny day.
It's been a really cool thing to do, building it. _________________ Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3626 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 1:27 am Post subject: Re: Cars the next generation
Nissan are still shooting for a initial production in the hundreds, as far as I know. Couldn't care less about the specs of these things, this is a logistics matter and there is far too little time for any of these bat-cars to make an impact on the market. Teslas and Apteras are built by production teams numbering up to 50. You'd as well print out the Toecutter's posts and build your own EV.
Volt is almost definitely being pushed back into '11. 2010 will likely see the first definite signs of a global oil production drop. When that becomes apparent things will change fundamentally. The market craps its pants every time US inventory drops a couple million barrels; what do you think will be going through investors' minds when they realize there's less oil today than yesterday - and there'll be less tomorrow? And so on. Sure, maybe EVs will be Hot Cakes - but the initial response is going to be PANIC! and Loss of Confidence in the system itself, which were the flour and water that went into the loaf of bread that was the Great Depression. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
Posted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 2:33 am Post subject: Re: Cars the next generation
Global oil production drop in 2010? Nope don't think so. Not with the exploratory drills being drilled offshore Brazil and full scale production to begin next year. Not with Iraqui plans to quadruple current production. Not with the oil patch in southern Saskatchewan (our side of the Bakken formation) now red hot with energy producers buying up Crown oil and gas rights as fast as they can. So far this year the province has taken in more than $605 million Canadian from sales, a historic high.
I just don't see a drop in production by 2010.
Joined: May 18, 2006 Posts: 4867 Location: Minneapolis, MN
Posted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 6:21 am Post subject: Re: Cars the next generation
Denny wrote:
I read an article about the development of the Chevy Volt that shows clearly GM's desperation. They still are working out the battery details. But, as the battery pack is so heavy, and space consuming, that would imply that much of the final engineering of the car will be delayed, and in turn vehicle testing and safety certification will be delayed, and then production tools will wind up being a crash program. 2010 is just around the corner in auto production terms.
Unfortunately, this is how a good idea can end up becoming a lemon in production. I recall being with GM back in the early 80's when they rushed the four speed automatic into production and never quite got around to implementing the test equipment properly at the transmission plant. (By the way, this "MD8" transmssion was part of an antidote to increase fuel mileage too.) Ultimately, this project compression led to flaws found only after final vehicle assembly, then an entire shipping yard full of trucks needing rework and then closing production for three weeks which caused us to have rail cars full of parts spanning over railroad yards as far away as 100 kilometres from the assembly plant. Also, high numbers of repairs needed on sold vehicles to replace faulty torque converters. In other words, a massive fiasco.
The Volt will be ready for testing late 09 and will be released to the Public (in small numbers) the fall of 10. The range will be 40 miles (battery only) with a small (constant revolution gas engine) to power the ele generator after this. Price will be around $40,000. I foresee many cars like this within 5 years at half the cost. It's not over yet!
FYI: 80% of the sheeple drive 40 miles or less everyday. _________________ Believe those who are seeking the truth. Doubt those who find it.
We had to change the pickup bed for a trunk to meet the state's bureaucratic regulations. It's ok, because we solved a lot of problems with that modificiation.
I was just driving it around. It sure is fun. It should cost around a penny a mile to drive, and less if it's a sunny day.
It's been a really cool thing to do, building it.
Take away the modern materials and it has a quaint late 19th century automobile look to it. Jay Leno has an early 20th century electric car in his collection that looks a bit like that. What sort of grade can it handle?... gears?
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3626 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 6:51 am Post subject: Re: Cars the next generation
vampyregirl wrote:
Global oil production drop in 2010? Nope don't think so. Not with the exploratory drills being drilled offshore Brazil and full scale production to begin next year. Not with Iraqui plans to quadruple current production. Not with the oil patch in southern Saskatchewan (our side of the Bakken formation) now red hot with energy producers buying up Crown oil and gas rights as fast as they can. So far this year the province has taken in more than $605 million Canadian from sales, a historic high.
I just don't see a drop in production by 2010.
Bottom-up analysis:
This includes everything coming out of Brazil or Iraq. Gains in yield from the Bakken for a given year can be outdone by your average UDW project. It's impressive in the sense of being in onshore NA and profitable to investors, not for delivering anything substantial to world production. It merely slows down the decline in NA conventional production.
The IEA will deliver their own bottom-up analysis in November, and have intimated that the decline rate is even higher than what this graph shows - 5.2% vs. the 4.5%. That would make the deficit for 2011 closer to 500kb/d. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
Joined: Aug 03, 2007 Posts: 4590 Location: Boston Suburbs
Posted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 9:10 am Post subject: Re: Cars the next generation
WisJim wrote:
But it is a NEV, not a highway legal vehicle. It's fine for most daily use of many people but not a vehicle you can use without restrictions.
In the future, peak oil collapse will impose its own restrictions, i.e. if it becomes prohibitively expensive to maintain the asphalt, then everything will revert to dirt roads and cobblestone and low-speed 19th century style vehicles will become viable again. So maybe that vehicle is ahead of its time _________________ http://doomsteaddiary.blogspot.com/
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