Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 2:40 pm Post subject: Re: $65 oil is coming (maybe)
Who knows where the eventual price will end up. Right now, the govt is reacting predictably by encouraging inflation over deflation. There is only one scenario they fear more than deflation and that is a Weimer style hyper inflation. Right now they are still in deflation fighting mode, and will remain there, unless inflation starts to spiral completely out of control. Then look out below. Unless they vote for a deflationary collapse, it seems to me unlikely that oil is going to go much under 100.00 per barrel, and 65.00 seems even less likely.
I think it's probably wise to differentiate between hyper inflation and inflation.
Posted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 9:07 am Post subject: Re: $65 oil is coming (maybe)
threadbear said:
Quote:
Who knows where the eventual price will end up. Right now, the govt is reacting predictably by encouraging inflation over deflation. There is only one scenario they fear more than deflation and that is a Weimer style hyper inflation. Right now they are still in deflation fighting mode, and will remain there, unless inflation starts to spiral completely out of control. Then look out below. Unless they vote for a deflationary collapse, it seems to me unlikely that oil is going to go much under 100.00 per barrel, and 65.00 seems even less likely.
I think it's probably wise to differentiate between hyper inflation and inflation.
Quote:
The US money supply has experienced the sharpest contraction in modern history, heightening the risk of a Wall Street crunch and a severe economic slowdown in coming months.
Data compiled by Lombard Street Research shows that the M3 ''broad money" aggregates fell by almost $50bn (£26.8bn) in July, the biggest one-month fall since modern records began in 1959.
"Monthly data for July show that the broad money growth has almost collapsed," said Gabriel Stein, the group's leading monetary economist.
The government would love to see inflation, unfortunately the trillions in asset destruction that is occurring is making that a little difficult to accomplish! The point is, that prices will continue to rise for oil until the world’s economies are contracting at the same rate that the world’s energy supply is falling. There is a direct linear relationship between energy supply and GDP. That relationship has held for over 100 years.
With the world’s economies presently falling by about 1% a year; we still have a ways to go. Oil’s declining energy contribution will accelerate until it is between 3.5 to 5% per year. Of course, volatility can be huge, and price could be depressed for a short period. It is absolutely assured, however, that it won’t stay there for long.
Joined: Apr 04, 2005 Posts: 473 Location: Seattle, WA
Posted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 11:26 am Post subject: Re: $65 oil is coming (maybe)
smallpoxgirl wrote:
There's a concept called contrary opinion. By the time they start putting articles on MSN about oil prices plummeting, it's probably time to go long again. Mainstream media is virtually always the last one to come around to a new financial happening, and by the time they publish it, it's time to do the opposite.
The MSM is a joke. I don't even know why I bother watching MSNBC/FOX/CNN or reading the paper anymore.
Joined: Dec 18, 2004 Posts: 4994 Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 11:28 am Post subject: Re: $65 oil is coming (maybe)
Heineken wrote:
Crikey, oil is up over $5/bbl at this writing, to around $120. Gold is up $21/oz.
Maybe some of us (me included) were wrong in thinking there's another round to the party!
Dante is usually eerily right about this stuff.
Yup, gold is up $21, and $40 in the past few days... but there's nowhere to buy it even if you wanted to because in the USA it's all sold out. _________________ Got Dharma?
Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 6:01 pm Post subject: Re: $65 oil is coming (maybe)
eastbay quoted:
Quote:
Goldman Sachs just reiterated it's $149.00 by 31DEC08 prediction.
I’ve been saying over and over that oil would peak at about $175 and remain there for most of the next decade. Of course, we will also be in a depression during that time. A real walk to work (if you have a job) darn your own socks, save buttons, and save the drippings from the pork fat style of depression.
Americans are about to learn that for the last few decades they have been living off the fat of the land. Someone else’s land, and someone else’s fat!
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