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Peakoil.com :: View topic - Another Record ($147.27)
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Another Record ($147.27)
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Eli
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 8:50 am    Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I think what we are seeing is hedgefunds moving money in and out of trades.

As the market changes they are all piling into similar trades trying to keep their monthly preformance up. Financials are not looking good so in mass they pull their cash out and then they reinvest it somewhere else.
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smallpoxgirl
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 9:01 am    Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

$122.02
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firestarter
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 9:04 am    Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I think there's starting to be a realization that the Russian conflict is a very serious matter indeed.
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Shannymara
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 9:08 am    Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

firestarter wrote:
I think there's starting to be a realization that the Russian conflict is a very serious matter indeed.

My initial thought as well. Crying or Very sad
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smallpoxgirl
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 9:10 am    Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Dunno. If I was looking for a fundamental reason, I'd blame Fay. She's apparently headed back across Florida towards the Gulf of Mexico. The bottom line though, is that the price has unwound itself adequately and it's ready to rise again given the right reason. It would have normally jumped up early in the Georgia conflict, but the bear force was just too much and absorbed whatever jitters were out there. The bulls are now taking control again and those jitters translate to price jumps.
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firestarter
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 9:15 am    Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I thought we'd see more downward pressure, especially after yesterday's inventory report. I'm not sure that Fay all by itself would be enough to drive the price of oil $9 north in less than 24hrs, given it's still uncertain trajectory. The Russian thing, on the other hand, scares the crap out of me, and I suspect a number of big time oil traders also.
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firestarter
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 9:16 am    Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

One thing I just thought about. Have you noticed the slide in the dollar? Not helping oil bears either.
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lowem
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 9:24 am    Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Anyone else also noticed that oil is going up throughout the futures expiry transition period? (or whatever it is called). That looks bullish to me.
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lowem
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 9:28 am    Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

firestarter wrote:
One thing I just thought about. Have you noticed the slide in the dollar? Not helping oil bears either.

Yep, the USDX looks toppish - it failed to reach 78 resistance, got turned back at 77 and is heading back down to 76. Thought I saw a triple top momentarily but that's probably wishful thinking Laughing
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eastbay
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 9:31 am    Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Goldman sticking to their $149 prediction. People listen when they speak. Plus, OPEC strongly hinting they'll soon cut production. And don't forget the downward turn in the dollar.

All arrows are pointing up! That's only for today. Tomorrow could be entirely different. Shocked
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shortonoil
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 9:51 am    Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

DantesPeak wrote:
Also on the demand side, for example, has it occurred to those predicting lower prices that 'demand destruction' will be reversed as prices fall - and therefore prices can not continue to go down?

Couple what DP said above with the embarrassing fact that the world has just about ZERO spare capacity, and the argument for oil going very low, for very long - goes POOF.

It takes energy to run an economy. As the energy disappears so does the economy, but the pressure on it remains upward as it grows scarcer and scarcer.
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Chuckmak
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 9:57 am    Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Nice! We're back on track! $150 we'll see you in no time!
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DantesPeak
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 8:00 pm    Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I haven't seen confirmation of this, but thre is some speculation Russia will cut back oil output.

However I previously posted a report three weeks back the Saudi Arabia did scale back their 500,000 bpd June/July output increase.


Quote:
Political tension sends oil over $120
By Chris Flood

Published: August 21 2008 11:22

Market speculation has been rampant that Vladimir Putin, Russia’s prime minister, has been infuriated by the US and European response on Georgia and has ordered oil exports to be reduced. The Energy Information Administration repeated on Wednesday its forecast that oil prices would trade in a $120-$130 range for the rest of the year.

However, the US government agency also warned that Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil producer, could cut back its recent rise in output to contain any further weakness in crude prices. Saudi Arabia boosted crude oil output in July to 9.7m barrels a day from 9.45m b/d in June, far above the informal Opec target.


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Armageddon
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 9:04 pm    Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

The US defeated the Russians in the cold war by conspiring with the Saudi's to flood the market with oil, therefore driving down the price, which crashed the heavily oil revenue dependant economy of Russia. How ironic would it be if the Russian's conspired with the Saudi's ( or a couple other oil producing countries ) to withhold oil , therefore driving the price of oil even higher, destroying the US economy ? Now that my friends is what is called karma.
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joeltrout
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 22, 2008 8:57 am    Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Armageddon wrote:
How ironic would it be if the Russian's conspired with the Saudi's ( or a couple other oil producing countries ) to withhold oil , therefore driving the price of oil even higher, destroying the US economy ? Now that my friends is what is called karma.


That would be very interesting. Quick collapse for sure and I am definitely not a doomer.

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