Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Joined: Mar 18, 2008 Posts: 466 Location: Upstate New York
Posted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 7:22 pm Post subject: Re: For those of you on the metals sideline...best jump onbo
Do you guys recommend only getting 1oz bullion/coins as opposed to a 100oz bar? Is there any real advantage other than cost/spot and storage? I went to the "local" dealer and chatted about silver. He said the following. (Take it with a grain of salt... Everyone has different opinions)
1. Gold is about the correct value at ~$800-$900.
2. Silver historically trades 50:1 to gold.
3. If that was to hold true then silver should be trading at ~$16-18.
4. With the way demand/shortages are going, he thinks silver will surpass that mark.
Shortages in silver are popping up all over the place. He had a guy walk in about two days ago and buy $100,000 in silver. Cash.. Took him three days but he got all of it. Now he only has about 50oz left and I might clean him out tomorrow. Of course I really don't care what silver gets to... I am buying it for more long term reasons, not a quick buck.
Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4723 Location: Boston, MA
Posted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 7:41 pm Post subject: Re: For those of you on the metals sideline...best jump onbo
The physical ownership of silver is not the best investment vehicle. The gap between the selling and buying cost of silver bullion is simply too large to allow an investor to take advantage of price swings.
Gold, on the other hand, has a very small gap between buying and selling prices (around 4% at my local shop).
In my opinion, the ETFs are your best bet. I bought some silver when the SLV dropped to $12.75 this morning. At $13.18 I've already covered my transaction costs.
Can you say the same about owning the physical metal? _________________ "www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
Joined: Mar 18, 2008 Posts: 466 Location: Upstate New York
Posted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 7:54 pm Post subject: Re: For those of you on the metals sideline...best jump onbo
Tyler_JC
I agree with you about ETF's being a better investment vehicle but I am not looking for profit. I am looking for physical/non-fiat money that will be used if TSHTF. If it goes to 20-30 dollars/oz.. whoopy.. Its when people are lighting fires with paper dollars that I am worried about.
There is something to be said in holding a 100oz bar of silver in each hand.. Then wishing it was gold.
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 2025 Location: Australia
Posted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 8:05 pm Post subject: Re: For those of you on the metals sideline...best jump onbo
Arsenal wrote:
Do you guys recommend only getting 1oz bullion/coins as opposed to a 100oz bar? Is there any real advantage other than cost/spot and storage? I went to the "local" dealer and chatted about silver. He said the following. (Take it with a grain of salt... Everyone has different opinions)
1. Gold is about the correct value at ~$800-$900.
2. Silver historically trades 50:1 to gold.
3. If that was to hold true then silver should be trading at ~$16-18.
4. With the way demand/shortages are going, he thinks silver will surpass that mark.
Shortages in silver are popping up all over the place. He had a guy walk in about two days ago and buy $100,000 in silver. Cash.. Took him three days but he got all of it. Now he only has about 50oz left and I might clean him out tomorrow. Of course I really don't care what silver gets to... I am buying it for more long term reasons, not a quick buck.
Arsenal
If you have to pay good premium on coins, then bar is preferable if you are aiming just for metal appreciation.
If you take a relly doomerish view and think metal will play a role as medium of exchange again coins are prrobably better.
I just buy what ever I can get for a good price.
I think the average ration over the last 300 years or so is round 1:30 but with huge fluctuations. There has been periods inthe 19th centry when it was somewhere round 5:1 but also as high as round 95:1.
So the use of ration really just works as very long term indicator of common relation. It however depends on fundamentals not changing as this throws the rations out of wack.
Golds "correct value" is also hugely debatable.
Do you base it on ratio against oil?
Inflation adjusted from a certain time?
Adjusted to global money supply?
Role of gold? (Jewlery/industrial/investment/money/safehaven)
The guy at my local coinshop said a few weeks ago that there is no shortage of silver. I asked the same guy today why after five weeks they haven't got any silver bullion coins and he can't tell me.
Strong opinion but not necessarily informed.
The thing to bear in mind with silver shortage is that there is constantly new supply coming in from mining. It is just that over many years it hasn't been enough to offset demand. That is why there are longer and longer delays and lack of certain types of product. A dealer who is happy to take your deposit and keep you waiting 2 weeks first time, 6 weeks next time, 20 weeks the third time, might not perceive it as a shortage as customers eventually get their stuff. It will only be painfully obvious when there are defaults or shops have to close as they have no product to sell (or such high premium compared to spot that noone buys it)
That also means it is really hard to predict a timeline for when things may come to a point. _________________ It's not a bailout, it's a buy-in" - Nancy Pelosi
Posted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 8:05 pm Post subject: Re: For those of you on the metals sideline...best jump onbo
I just got some 64 Kennedy halves and a walking liberty for $5 each. I haven't paid $5 for a while. That's the equivalent of a $10 silver dollar, which hasn't been possible for about 2 years at least. I think that silver is at bargain prices now, but we'll see.
I can't see it continuing to trade for $12 an ounce for long.
I could be wrong. Maybe it will drop back even further.
Who knows? _________________ Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 4338 Location: Graceland
Posted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 8:48 pm Post subject: Re: For those of you on the metals sideline...best jump onbo
Pre-65 junk silver is, to me, the best way to do physical silver. It often trades a little BELOW spot.
You still pay a penalty when you sell, but if your goal is to get the most silver for your dollar, that's the way to do it.
The fact that it is also legal currency is a plus. You can't spend a block of silver at most stores.
The Canadian silver maple is also quite appealing with its fancy $5 face value. I think that's the smallest spread among all the bullion coins between face value and bullion value.
If I were buying physical today, I might pick up some platinum eagles. They're trading about as much off the highs as silver. _________________
Joined: Apr 08, 2006 Posts: 1464 Location: Somewhere there
Posted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 10:13 pm Post subject: Re: For those of you on the metals sideline...best jump onbo
Tyler_JC wrote:
The physical ownership of silver is not the best investment vehicle. The gap between the selling and buying cost of silver bullion is simply too large to allow an investor to take advantage of price swings.
Gold, on the other hand, has a very small gap between buying and selling prices (around 4% at my local shop).
In my opinion, the ETFs are your best bet. I bought some silver when the SLV dropped to $12.75 this morning. At $13.18 I've already covered my transaction costs.
Can you say the same about owning the physical metal?
You pay 43 cents to buy 1 ounce of silver? Sweet Lord! I complain when it goes to 4.5-5 in the evenings.
Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4723 Location: Boston, MA
Posted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 10:39 pm Post subject: Re: For those of you on the metals sideline...best jump onbo
Pretorian wrote:
Tyler_JC wrote:
The physical ownership of silver is not the best investment vehicle. The gap between the selling and buying cost of silver bullion is simply too large to allow an investor to take advantage of price swings.
Gold, on the other hand, has a very small gap between buying and selling prices (around 4% at my local shop).
In my opinion, the ETFs are your best bet. I bought some silver when the SLV dropped to $12.75 this morning. At $13.18 I've already covered my transaction costs.
Can you say the same about owning the physical metal?
You pay 43 cents to buy 1 ounce of silver? Sweet Lord! I complain when it goes to 4.5-5 in the evenings.
Actually I pay $7 per trade. It's a Scottrade account. If I'd bought 700 shares, I'd be paying the equivalent of one penny per ounce in commissions. I bought 90 shares so I paid less than 13 cents per "digital ounce".
The exchange traded fund, SLV, has a value equal to one ounce of silver so it's a simple and easy way to buy silver.
The expense ratio is .5% but compared to the massive premium you pay for silver coins...it's a no-brainer. _________________ "www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
NEW YORK (Reuters) - A buying spree in the popular American Eagle bullion coins appears to have depleted inventory of major North American coin dealers, contributing to supply fears and sharply higher gold prices on Thursday.
Coin dealers in the United States and Canada said buying of gold coins and other bullion products has soared since last week as gold prices tumbled to near a nine-month bottom.
Blanchard and Co., one of the largest U.S. retail dealers of rare coins and precious metals, said the American Eagle and American Buffalo one-ounce gold coins -- novel items among collectors and investors -- are currently sold out.
"Nobody has the Eagles or the Buffalos right now. We bought 2,000 ounces late last week, and those were the last 2,000 ounces that we can find in the marketplace," said David Beahm, vice president of New Orleans-based Blancard.
"If we don't have them, nobody has them," Beahm said.
According to a Thursday report by the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. Mint told dealers it was temporarily suspending all sales of the American Eagle coins due to depleted inventory and unprecedented demand.
Michael White, a spokesman of the U.S. Mint, did not return calls for comment.
Meanwhile, Canada-based dealer Kitco also said demand for gold bullion coins has increased significantly in recent days.
Kitco's Senior Analyst Jon Nadler said American Eagles are still in stock even though delays in supply and shipping of all bullion products could be possible due to high demand.
On Thursday, spot gold was up more than 3 percent to $837 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures for December delivery scaled a one-week high at $845 an ounce.
George Gero, vice president of RBC Capital Markets Global Futures in New York, cited the gold coin shortage for Thursday's gold rally.
_________________ Every action has an opposite and equal reaction.
"Can I have a cheeseburger with no cheese?"
- Heard at a local Jack In The Box
Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4723 Location: Boston, MA
Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 12:40 pm Post subject: Re: For those of you on the metals sideline...best jump onbo
Roccland wrote:
Tyler_JC wrote:
The expense ratio is .5% but compared to the massive premium you pay for silver coins...it's a no-brainer.
Well tyler, and i know you don't believe in Duncan and all that, but good luck trying to get your money when the lights go out.
BTW - pretty nice moves to the upside on PMs this AM...don't cha think?
If the lights go out, most of us are dead so I don't worry about it.
The slight risk of catastrophic failure isn't worth the trade off of making bad financial decisions.
For anyone who doesn't think the sky is falling, buying physical silver is a waste of money.
1 ounce silver coins are selling for $18+shipping on eBay. When the real value of silver is $13.50/ounce...it just doesn't make sense. _________________ "www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
Joined: Mar 18, 2008 Posts: 466 Location: Upstate New York
Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 12:48 pm Post subject: Re: For those of you on the metals sideline...best jump onbo
Tyler_JC wrote:
If the lights go out, most of us are dead so I don't worry about it.
The slight risk of catastrophic failure isn't worth the trade off of making bad financial decisions.
For anyone who doesn't think the sky is falling, buying physical silver is a waste of money.
1 ounce silver coins are selling for $18+shipping on eBay. When the real value of silver is $13.50/ounce...it just doesn't make sense.
If the dollar is loses its value people will still be alive. They will be worse off but there will be plenty of people around.
Where the heck are you getting your silver??? Ebay??? I bought 1oz silver rounds for $14.20\oz at my local shop yesterday when the spot was $13.35. It is real. Not paper that does not have any value but I have a lot of other investments that yield better. Silver was at a great price point to diversify my portfolio since I was kinda light in metals.
Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 12:52 pm Post subject: Re: For those of you on the metals sideline...best jump onbo
Tyler_JC wrote:
The slight risk of catastrophic failure isn't worth the trade off of making bad financial decisions.
Now THAT is funny Tyler!!!
The contents of Tyler's BOB:
1) copy of the WSJ
2) His FICO score written on the inside of a book of matches
3) can of sardines
4) and his last receipt from the ATM telling him how much money he thought he should have.
Did you care to point specifically to where you believe Dr. Duncan was off in his thinking Tyler...or was that something you still needed time to sort out? _________________ 500 MPH into a brick wall - me
Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 12:57 pm Post subject: Re: For those of you on the metals sideline...best jump onbo
Roccland wrote:
The contents of Tyler's BOB:
I know this might shock you, so you might want to sit down. Some of us aren't quite as certain that the world is going to end tommorrow as you are Rocc. Some of us actually think there might be a working internet and electricity for a few more years yet and we're looking at investing from a slightly different perspective than just ordering supplies for a BOB. _________________ "We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
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