Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Joined: Dec 18, 2004 Posts: 4994 Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 1:33 pm Post subject: Re: Mexico: Pemex and Cantarell News And Discussion Thread
It means they join import land in about a year and a half instead of 8 to 10 years like the 'experts' have been lying are saying. It means no more budget revenue. No more corn subsidy. Relative stability replaced by chaos. And that's the optimistic scenario.
Oh, let me edit to say, excellent work posting this newman1979! Much appreciated! _________________ Got Dharma?
Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha
Last edited by eastbay on Thu Aug 21, 2008 1:45 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: May 06, 2008 Posts: 442 Location: Omicron Ceti 3
Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 1:38 pm Post subject: Re: Mexico: Pemex and Cantarell News And Discussion Thread
newman1979 wrote:
Pemex has just released July 08 data. Crude oil production was 2,782 m/b/d in July down from 3,166 m/b/d in July 07. Crude oil exports to the U.S. were 1,235 m/b/d down from 1,610 in July 07. Mexico's gasoline imports were 404.5 thousand barrels a day principally from the U.S.
Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 1:43 pm Post subject: Re: Mexico: Pemex and Cantarell News And Discussion Thread
DoomWarrior wrote:
newman1979 wrote:
Pemex has just released July 08 data. Crude oil production was 2,782 m/b/d in July down from 3,166 m/b/d in July 07. Crude oil exports to the U.S. were 1,235 m/b/d down from 1,610 in July 07. Mexico's gasoline imports were 404.5 thousand barrels a day principally from the U.S.
Pemex also reported that output at Cantarell fell 36% to 973,688 barrels a day. As late as 2006, Cantarell was the second largest oilfield in the world. In as much as the decline rate is startling, Mexico's subsidizing gasoline needs to be reexamined as an abrupt removal of this subsidy in 2 years could be catastrophic.
Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 4:14 pm Post subject: Re: Mexico: Pemex and Cantarell News And Discussion Thread
eastbay said:
Quote:
It means they join import land in about a year and a half instead of 8 to 10 years like the 'experts' have been lying are saying. It means no more budget revenue. No more corn subsidy. Relative stability replaced by chaos. And that's the optimistic scenario.
Mexico collects 60% of its foreign exchange currency from oil. Mexico has never been more than about one bottle of Tequila away from a revolution, anyway. When the money flow stops, which it will in about a year, the chaos will be sensational!
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3626 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 4:25 pm Post subject: Re: Mexico: Pemex and Cantarell News And Discussion Thread
I don't know why more attention isn't paid to the situation in Mexico. For US citizens I think it's much more pressing than trying to peer through the veil of KSA production. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3920 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 5:06 pm Post subject: Re: Mexico: Pemex and Cantarell News And Discussion Thread
Heaven help us I forsee 120 million desperate Mexican citizens attempting to move north within the next three years.
I don't hate them, but I can't afford to support them either. _________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 5:13 pm Post subject: Re: Mexico: Pemex and Cantarell News And Discussion Thread
Quote:
World News Connection
July 17, 2008
Mexico: Energy Expert David Shields Analyzes Pemex's 'Somber' Outlook
Commentary by energy expert David Shields : What Reform?
The outlook for Mexican Petroleum (Pemex) is becoming more somber with every passing day. On the one hand, the decline of Cantarell andthe drop in crude oil production and exports have accelerated. On the other hand, political conditions are not favorable for oil reform.
During June, crude oil production at Cantarell dropped by57,000 barrels per day (b/d) compared to May, for a cumulative decline of277,000 b/d in the first half of 2008, in addition to a drop of almost 1 million b/d in the previous three years. Now the scenario expected by the end of this year is that crude oil production will be close to 2.6 million b/d and exports will be nearly 1 million b/d, levels that would take us back to theyear 1990 in production and 1979 in exports. Pemex has now entered a new eraof low production, depletion of oil fields, and failure to incorporate provenreserves. So, for 2009 we will have to set volume estimates that are much lower than those in the federal budget for this year.
If not for the incredible rise in oil prices ($132 per barrel for the Mexican blend today, compared to the $49 budgeted as the averageprice for this year), we would have already had to stop considering oil to bethe pillar of the public finances and of "sovereignty." We must not forget that the extra funds from crude oil exports are being used almost entirely to pay for imports and gasoline subsidies.
The incentive contracts proposed by President Calderon areaimed at that improvement and we would just need to define and/or refine the details of the plan, ensuring adequate controls and its full legality. This contracting plan must be viewed as the minimum indispensable element of thereform, because, without it, the oil reform will not make sense and it will notbe long before we have to proceed to a painful downsizing of production andlabor at Pemex, with negative economic and social consequences.
In Spanish - http://www.reforma.com/
no direct link _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 5:41 pm Post subject: Re: Mexico: Pemex and Cantarell News And Discussion Thread
Danteseak quoted:
Quote:
We must not forgetthat the extra funds from crude oil exports are being used almost entirely topay for imports and gasoline subsidies.
Thanks DP, excellent find!
With all of Mexico’s crude’s surplus revenue from higher prices going to support domestic consumption, there will undoubtedly, be very little remaining to invest in slowing their decline.
Soon the only thing coming out of Mexico is going to be Mexicans. With almost all states presently already in deep financial trouble, this is going to be the issue of the decade! But, interestingly, no one on the Hill is talking about it. Why am I not surprised!
Collapsing housing, collapsing financial system, skyrocketing energy prices and sub-orbital level prices for food. Now we have the threat of 120 million homeless, disenfranchised aliens pouring over the border. Washington’s response - problem, what problem!!
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 7:47 pm Post subject: Re: Mexico: Pemex and Cantarell News And Discussion Thread
shortonoil wrote:
Danteseak quoted:
Quote:
We must not forgetthat the extra funds from crude oil exports are being used almost entirely topay for imports and gasoline subsidies.
Thanks DP, excellent find!
With all of Mexico’s crude’s surplus revenue from higher prices going to support domestic consumption, there will undoubtedly, be very little remaining to invest in slowing their decline.
Soon the only thing coming out of Mexico is going to be Mexicans. With almost all states presently already in deep financial trouble, this is going to be the issue of the decade! But, interestingly, no one on the Hill is talking about it. Why am I not surprised!
Collapsing housing, collapsing financial system, skyrocketing energy prices and sub-orbital level prices for food. Now we have the threat of 120 million homeless, disenfranchised aliens pouring over the border. Washington’s response - problem, what problem!!
With Mexico's imports of gsaoline and diesel constantly increasing, the point where the oil budget deficit goes into the red must be coming soon. Then it may as soon as 2010 when Mexico's net oil and oil product imports/exports turn negative.
Mexico has a history of inflationary policies, so I expect the value of the Mexican peso to go soon. While this is OT, get out of the peso now while it still has some stability (but don't buy dollars with the peso money!).
Three years ago when I first posted on Cantarell, the 'pessimistic' scenarios given looked almost impossibly bad. Well, it has turned out that the most pessimistic scenario was correct after all.
Quote:
Mexico's Cantarell Output Down 36% On Year To 1 Mln B/D
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
August 21, 2008 8:09 p.m.
MEXICO CITY (Dow Jones)--Production at Mexico's largest oil field, Cantarell, fell 36% over the past year, eroding Mexico's overall oil production and causing a sharp drop in exports.
Cantarell has left the country vulnerable to a drop in international crude prices, even though record prices have temporarily compensated for the output decline. Oil accounts for around a third of fiscal revenue in Mexico.
"New fields aren't coming on line fast enough to replace Cantarell," Pemex General Director Jesus Reyes Heroles said at a conference Thursday.
Pemex pumped 1 million barrels a day at Cantarell in July, down 556,000 barrels a day from the year-ago period and down 43,000 barrels a day from June, according to Energy Ministry data.
July exports were down 21.7% on year to 1.38 million barrels a day, mainly due to plummeting output at Cantarell. Officials warn that Mexico's exports could completely dry up in less than a decade unless Pemex finds and develops new pools of oil fast.
Since the 1980s Pemex has relied on Cantarell for the bulk of its oil production, and the company did not prepare for common problems oil firms face with middle-aged fields.
WSJ _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2257 Location: Arkansas
Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 9:09 pm Post subject: Re: Mexico: Pemex and Cantarell News And Discussion Thread
I don't have anything to really add except my sentiments having watched this evolve since 2004 also. Back then, the MSM/optimist virtually completely denied that Cantarall was even going into decline. It was such a shock to most pundits, like the Lynch crowd, when Cantarell was admittedly in decline. Then, the infamous insider report that it would decline at anywhere from 5%-40%, but everyone believed about 5%. The 40% scenario, like the failure of the fannie mae and freddie was so horrible that it wasn't really even discussed as a possibility. Well, we're there. Just like the Yibel field, most unfortunate. Maybe the world can do without this field, but Mexico cannot. It will create a crisis on our border beyond what anyone anticipates right now.
Joined: Dec 18, 2004 Posts: 4994 Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 9:32 pm Post subject: Re: Mexico: Pemex and Cantarell News And Discussion Thread
seahorse wrote:
I don't have anything to really add except my sentiments having watched this evolve since 2004 also. Back then, the MSM/optimist virtually completely denied that Cantarall was even going into decline. It was such a shock to most pundits, like the Lynch crowd, when Cantarell was admittedly in decline. Then, the infamous insider report that it would decline at anywhere from 5%-40%, but everyone believed about 5%. The 40% scenario, like the failure of the fannie mae and freddie was so horrible that it wasn't really even discussed as a possibility. Well, we're there. Just like the Yibel field, most unfortunate. Maybe the world can do without this field, but Mexico cannot. It will create a crisis on our border beyond what anyone anticipates right now.
So true. Each year 1.5 to two million Mexicans are illegally crossing into the USA along the southern border and they're primarily doing so for much higher paid employment. That a fairly strong motivation to risk it all. Who wouldn't take a chance like that for a five to 10 fold increase in salary.
At some point next year they'll start crossing in much larger numbers and this time it'll be to avoid starvation. Hunger is a much more powerful motivator than higher pay. By 2010 it'll be a flood and there's little the USA can do to stop it. There is no question at all that those living near the southern borders will get hammered hard by this influx of desperate and starving humanity. They will number in the millions and they'll be hungry and broke... doing whatever it takes to secure a meal. Several times a day.
It's going to be a catastrophic economic disaster for any populated areas from Brownsville to San Diego. It's now hard to even begin to comprehend how dangerous things will become for those living along the border today. _________________ Got Dharma?
Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2008 8:21 am Post subject: Re: Mexico: Pemex and Cantarell News And Discussion Thread
eastbay wrote:
seahorse wrote:
I don't have anything to really add except my sentiments having watched this evolve since 2004 also. Back then, the MSM/optimist virtually completely denied that Cantarall was even going into decline. It was such a shock to most pundits, like the Lynch crowd, when Cantarell was admittedly in decline. Then, the infamous insider report that it would decline at anywhere from 5%-40%, but everyone believed about 5%. The 40% scenario, like the failure of the fannie mae and freddie was so horrible that it wasn't really even discussed as a possibility. Well, we're there. Just like the Yibel field, most unfortunate. Maybe the world can do without this field, but Mexico cannot. It will create a crisis on our border beyond what anyone anticipates right now.
So true. Each year 1.5 to two million Mexicans are illegally crossing into the USA along the southern border and they're primarily doing so for much higher paid employment. That a fairly strong motivation to risk it all. Who wouldn't take a chance like that for a five to 10 fold increase in salary.
At some point next year they'll start crossing in much larger numbers and this time it'll be to avoid starvation. Hunger is a much more powerful motivator than higher pay. By 2010 it'll be a flood and there's little the USA can do to stop it. There is no question at all that those living near the southern borders will get hammered hard by this influx of desperate and starving humanity. They will number in the millions and they'll be hungry and broke... doing whatever it takes to secure a meal. Several times a day.
It's going to be a catastrophic economic disaster for any populated areas from Brownsville to San Diego. It's now hard to even begin to comprehend how dangerous things will become for those living along the border today.
Just like in the past and present they will go north cross country and blow past the border region. The border regions are arid to semi arid and don't support much agriculture. The further they are able to get away from the border the more likely they can evade LE. Every Mexican National I have ever met that was crossing the border illegally was headed for an inward destination into the US.
One thing we should consider and keep in mind is the fact that the US is not immune from this situation. 120 million folks will not just suddenly quit consuming no matter what country they may flee too. With the facts of Mexico's depletion dilemma, we can conclude oil prices will rise exponentially when reality sets in. This may offset the inevitable collapse of Mexico for a period of time but not forever. We will do without Mexico's oil exports while we absorb there masses and we will become deFacto surrogate rulers for Mexican citizens and a failed state.
A river and fence may separate us but we are still neighbors so pass the salt and pepper por favor. _________________ It's a cold cold world when a man has to pawn his shoes.
Joined: Dec 18, 2004 Posts: 4994 Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2008 9:13 am Post subject: Re: Mexico: Pemex and Cantarell News And Discussion Thread
One of the factors that made it relatively easy for illegal Mexicans to move beyond the border areas was, as we all know, the magnetic draw of available jobs. That may not be the case in the coming years. Plus, remember it costs money to travel north; money they may not have as time passes. Remittances to family in Mexico are already dropping.
Sure, some may somehow make it into LA, Phoenix, Denver, Chicago, etc... but as long as illegal border crossing remains doable a new class of illegals is on the way and they'll become the majority as this crisis develops. This new class of illegals will probably be barely able to reach the border and when they do they'll be broke, hopelessly unemployed, and desperately hungry. It won't be anything like it has been.
An entirely new situation will unfold as the loss of oil revenue causes the Mexican budget and state to collapse. And it's going to occur quite soon, most likely within a year or two. Many, me included, were not long ago suggesting 2012 at the earliest... now many are saying next year at the soonest! Amazing how quickly this disaster is unfolding. _________________ Got Dharma?
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