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GoghGoner
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Apr 10, 2008
Posts: 516
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 Posted: Sun Aug 24, 2008 9:35 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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| ColossalContrarian wrote: | | Alnitaka wrote: | | The latest run of GFS (2008 August 13 12Z) shows a storm near Africa behind 92L and 93L developing into a hurricane, heading to the Gulf of Mexico and hitting Louisiana. Is that when gasoline soars and crude oil prices drop some more (you need refineries to convert it into gasoline and diesel). |
That’s some serious predicting right there…at least 10 days out and all… |
Well, that was posted on the 13th of August. Eleven days ago. 94L is still a few of days away from the GOM but Masters predicts it will become a TS over the next day or two. If Gustav affects gasoline prices Alnitaka will be nominated as PO Hurricane forecaster of 2008.
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Armageddon
Fusion
Joined: Apr 13, 2005
Posts: 3266
Location: St.Louis, Mo
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| Posted: Sun Aug 24, 2008 10:22 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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| If this thing splits the Yukatan and enters the GOM, yikes. |
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bl00k
Heavy Crude
Joined: Sep 17, 2005
Posts: 178
Location: The Netherlands
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| Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 3:30 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIADSAAT+shtml/250835.shtml
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SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA FROM THE
NETHERLAND ANTILLES INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.
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The man who moves a mountain begins by carrying away small stones. |
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Roy
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Jun 18, 2004
Posts: 806
Location: Western North Carolina
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| Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 10:20 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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Last edited by Roy on Sun Oct 12, 2008 8:26 am; edited 1 time in total |
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GoghGoner
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Apr 10, 2008
Posts: 516
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| Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 12:30 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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| Roy wrote: | Floridians get ready! TD7 heading your way, or so it appears.
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Named Gustav. And looking like Hurricane Gustav before tomorrow. |
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Armageddon
Fusion
Joined: Apr 13, 2005
Posts: 3266
Location: St.Louis, Mo
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| Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 12:50 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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| I wonder if he will withstand the impact of the islands ? Looks like Hispanola and Cuba are in his way. If he stays north/north east of Cuba and heads towards the GOM , it could get ugly in a hurry. I am not sure what the path projections are. |
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UncoveringTruths
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Nov 04, 2004
Posts: 902
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| Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 12:56 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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| Armageddon wrote: | | I wonder if he will withstand the impact of the islands ? Looks like Hispanola and Cuba are in his way. If he stays north/north east of Cuba and heads towards the GOM , it could get ugly in a hurry. I am not sure what the path projections are. |
Weather nerd Mets are calling for the storm to go south of Cuba heading west and enter the eastern GOM due to blocking high pressure ridge over Florida.
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It's a cold cold world when a man has to pawn his shoes. |
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Armageddon
Fusion
Joined: Apr 13, 2005
Posts: 3266
Location: St.Louis, Mo
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| Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 12:59 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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Keep your eyes on this one. It could be heading toward oil country. |
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Etika
Coal
Joined: May 02, 2007
Posts: 17
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| Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 1:19 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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Don't trust that NHC track, NHC itself said that the shown track is much less likely than a track more west or track more north:
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THERE IS AN
UNUSUALLY LARGE SPREAD TO OUR TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE THAT SEEMS TO BE
THE RESULT OF TWO PRIMARY SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE MOTION OF THE
SYSTEM. ONE WOULD BE A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK INTO A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THIS IS
DEPICTED BY THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. A SECOND SCENARIO IS
FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO BEND MORE WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER FLORIDA...AND THAT IS DEPICTED BY THE
BAM TRACKS...THE HWRF...AND THE GFDL. OUR FIRST OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST SOMEWHAT SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BUT LEANS TOWARD THE LATTER
SCENARIO. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS
TRACK FORECAST IS NOT HIGH...PARTICULARLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
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The first group of models they are talking of would take Gustav more to north to Bahamas and Florida, and the other group would take it just south of south coast of Cuba, over the flat western tip of Cuba into Eastern GOM or Yucatan. The latter scenario would be potentially really bad since there would be little land Gustav would encounter and all of it would be low-lying. |
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wisconsin_cur
Moderator
Joined: May 10, 2007
Posts: 3360
Location: Resiliency Farm
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| Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 6:00 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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For those of us who are visual:
_________________
“It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him.”
J.R.R. Tolkien
"The time has come for men to act like men; and for women, well, to act a lot more like men."
-Ma Cur |
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DantesPeak
Expert
Joined: Oct 23, 2004
Posts: 5928
Location: New Jersey
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| Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:05 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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Seems the track of Gustav has ominously shifted more westward towards the GOM.
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It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting. |
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Armageddon
Fusion
Joined: Apr 13, 2005
Posts: 3266
Location: St.Louis, Mo
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| Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:16 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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If this thing goes south of Cuba and heads into the GOM, look the eff out. The waters it is about to go through are super heated. It could be a cat 2-3 in the next 24-48 hr easily. |
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Armageddon
Fusion
Joined: Apr 13, 2005
Posts: 3266
Location: St.Louis, Mo
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| Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 9:16 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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| The latest forecast is out, and they are now projecting it to clip the North-West side of Cuba and enter the GOM. RUH-ROH. This thing is going to be a monster imo. |
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TonisD
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jun 12, 2007
Posts: 168
Location: Estonia
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| Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 3:37 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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| People over at Storm2k are thinking that it could brush up agains't the Yucatan. Perhaps Gustav is not The Hurricane of the season, atleast I hope so. |
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skiwi
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Aug 23, 2004
Posts: 710
Location: Frost Free in New Zealand
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| Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 4:24 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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Go Gustav Go! My slogan for the week 
Hurricane Gustav Five Day Forecast Map
_________________
Let us make him who shall nourish and sustain us. What shall we do to be invoked; to be remembered in the earth.
We have tried with our first creatures but we could not make them venerate us.
So let us try to make obedient respectful beings who shall |
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