Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2008 1:09 pm Post subject: Re: Mexico: Pemex and Cantarell News And Discussion Thread
ROCKMAN wrote:
I still don't think you get the big picture roc. Some of these folks own some of the tankers bringing gasoline into Mexico. Things will have to get pretty bad before the golden rule stops working IMO.
Oh no - I get the picture.
I think you don't.
Show me where Dr. Duncan is wrong.
See rock...I will go back to my original statement...
Being affluent does not matter.
So you are saying that as the lights flicker out...somehow these tankers (and all their electrical equipment) and the refineries...and the pumps at the gas station and and and are gonna work why?
Because one is rich? _________________ 500 MPH into a brick wall - me
Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2008 1:14 pm Post subject: Re: Mexico: Pemex and Cantarell News And Discussion Thread
Rockman,
A while back someone proposed that Cantarell could catstrophically collapse to near zero in short order because of its geology and recovery methods. Something about the bottom dropping out or reaching its cap. Do you have any ideas on this? _________________ It's a cold cold world when a man has to pawn his shoes.
Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2008 1:24 pm Post subject: Re: Mexico: Pemex and Cantarell News And Discussion Thread
roc,
The folks I'm talking about don't get their fuel from a gas station. They get it from their own 50,000 gal underground storage. And their lights don't flicker because their private power plants don't go down. And they wouldn't miss a meal because their private air force can load up in Houston and zip back down to the hacienda.
Now if you're talking about the end of life on earth as we know it, that's one thing. Then it's just mano a mano. I'm not. I was just talking about a portion of the world that can comfortably prosper in a world of $1000 oil. Perhaps we got off track to each others point...sorry about that. I'm not sure what the number is these days but the folks I've been referring to are the members of a 100 or so extended families that comprise the real power structure in Mexico. The average Mexican citizen I think you're referring to is commonly referred to by them as "stray dogs". I forget the exact little colloquial term they use.
Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2008 1:31 pm Post subject: Re: Mexico: Pemex and Cantarell News And Discussion Thread
ROCKMAN wrote:
Quote:
I still don't think you get the big picture roc. Some of these folks own some of the tankers bringing gasoline into Mexico. Things will have to get pretty bad before the golden rule stops working IMO.
I know who you are talking about Rock. I got to met a few of them when I had a house in Port de Vallarta a few years back. Even though they are very well educated and intelligent, like their northern piers, they have absolutely no conception of what will ensue from the monetary collapse we will soon be witnessing.
But neither do most people, and money doesn’t seem to bestow any kind of enlightenment. If anything, it tends to add a few more blinders to the collection that most people already have.
PO will entail a lot more than just the end of the oil age.
Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2008 1:42 pm Post subject: Re: Mexico: Pemex and Cantarell News And Discussion Thread
Yep short, I found their egos were as difficult to stomach as their utter disdain for the average Mexican citizen. I truly did develop a love-hate relationship with them: great to party with if they would just keep their damn mouths shut. But as I aged the partying becaome less important and the conversation more so.
Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2008 1:54 pm Post subject: Re: Mexico: Pemex and Cantarell News And Discussion Thread
Just a little bit from expats that have worked on the facilities down there. The pressure is maintained (and thus keeps pushing the oil out) by injecting nitrogen. The separate the N from the air with the largest such plant of earth. This builds a N gas cap on top of the oil. If you produced the oil too fast you can actually pull some of this N down into the production stream. Besides making it more difficult to process the oil you’re also reducing the pressure support. Ideally you mange this by lowering the production rate. Otherwise, you risk reducing the ultimate recovery. And there you go: between the rock and the hard place. Reduce today’s cash flow but extend field life. Or pull it as hard as possible and leave billions of $’s of unrecoverable oil in the ground. The word from the expats has been that they are pulling the wells too hard and drawing down the N. This could lead to a very significant increases in decline rate (maybe like what we’re seeing now). But if they max out their ability to process the N out of the oil they could also choke off a good bit of the production on the surface. Whatever the exact problem is it’s very unlikely anything can prevent significant rate reductions in the future. That’s why I think if there were a vote in OPEC to reduce production worldwide thru the quota system Mexico would vote in favor. Especially if they net the same $’s with the lower rate as they are making now.
Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2008 2:02 pm Post subject: Re: Mexico: Pemex and Cantarell News And Discussion Thread
ROCKMAN wrote:
Just a little bit from expats that have worked on the facilities down there. The pressure is maintained (and thus keeps pushing the oil out) by injecting nitrogen. The separate the N from the air with the largest such plant of earth. This builds a N gas cap on top of the oil. If you produced the oil too fast you can actually pull some of this N down into the production stream. Besides making it more difficult to process the oil you’re also reducing the pressure support. Ideally you mange this by lowering the production rate. Otherwise, you risk reducing the ultimate recovery. And there you go: between the rock and the hard place. Reduce today’s cash flow but extend field life. Or pull it as hard as possible and leave billions of $’s of unrecoverable oil in the ground. The word from the expats has been that they are pulling the wells too hard and drawing down the N. This could lead to a very significant increases in decline rate (maybe like what we’re seeing now). But if they max out their ability to process the N out of the oil they could also choke off a good bit of the production on the surface. Whatever the exact problem is it’s very unlikely anything can prevent significant rate reductions in the future. That’s why I think if there were a vote in OPEC to reduce production worldwide thru the quota system Mexico would vote in favor. Especially if they net the same $’s with the lower rate as they are making now.
I found the source from Tom Whipple Falls Church news. The document is protected from copying but the description of what could happen is about halfway down in the article.
Thanks again Rockman.
Cantarell _________________ It's a cold cold world when a man has to pawn his shoes.
Joined: Apr 09, 2007 Posts: 6376 Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2008 2:02 pm Post subject: Re: Mexico: Pemex and Cantarell News And Discussion Thread
ROCKMAN wrote:
Just a little bit from expats that have worked on the facilities down there. The pressure is maintained (and thus keeps pushing the oil out) by injecting nitrogen. The separate the N from the air with the largest such plant of earth. This builds a N gas cap on top of the oil. If you produced the oil too fast you can actually pull some of this N down into the production stream. Besides making it more difficult to process the oil you’re also reducing the pressure support. Ideally you mange this by lowering the production rate. Otherwise, you risk reducing the ultimate recovery. And there you go: between the rock and the hard place. Reduce today’s cash flow but extend field life. Or pull it as hard as possible and leave billions of $’s of unrecoverable oil in the ground. The word from the expats has been that they are pulling the wells too hard and drawing down the N. This could lead to a very significant increases in decline rate (maybe like what we’re seeing now). But if they max out their ability to process the N out of the oil they could also choke off a good bit of the production on the surface. Whatever the exact problem is it’s very unlikely anything can prevent significant rate reductions in the future. That’s why I think if there were a vote in OPEC to reduce production worldwide thru the quota system Mexico would vote in favor. Especially if they net the same $’s with the lower rate as they are making now.
I wonder why they use expensive N instead of just injecting seawater.
They wouldn't have to pay a penny to obtain seawater, AND seawater injection has been working great to extend the life of fields like Ghawar and the offshore Cook Inlet fields here in Alaska.
AND there are no issues with injected seawater forming a cap on top of the oil, AND its cheaper to separate from the oil when it is produced.
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3626 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2008 3:37 pm Post subject: Re: Mexico: Pemex and Cantarell News And Discussion Thread
As I understand these things water would be secondary recovery, N2 etc. tertiary. Cantarell's remarkable gas cap meant Pemex didn't have to do much with the field for years. Geology turned out to be the deciding factor.
As gas is at a premium in Mexico, Pemex knew it could put the gas to better use by selling it. So Bechtel and Pemex studied other options, such as steam and water injection. Because of the oil field’s geological formation, neither of these turned out to be a viable solution. But nitrogen was. After six months of study, the team recommended that nitrogen be used to pressurise the reservoir and enhance production at Cantarell.
That nitrogen plant was built with assistance from, horrors, outside contractors:
Quote:
The plant was built by a consortium including Empresas ICA of Mexico and Fluor Corp of the US; gas companies Linde and BOC Group; Westcoast Energy of Canada (a gas pipeline company later acquired by Spectra Energy); and Marubeni. The plant is owned and operated by a joint venture company which is majority-owned by BOC Group, which was itself acquired by Linde in 2006.
The injection project started operating in 2000, and boosted production from about a million barrels a day to 1.6 million barrels a day, then to 1.9 million barrels a day in 2002 and to a peak of 2.1 million barrels a day in 2004, at the time making Cantarell the second-fastest producing oil field in the world, behind Ghawar Field in Saudi Arabia.
However, Cantarell is now in relentless decline. As long ago as August 2004, Pemex announced that actual oil output from the field was forecast to decline steeply from 2006 onwards, at a rate of 14% a year.
_________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3920 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2008 4:07 pm Post subject: Re: Mexico: Pemex and Cantarell News And Discussion Thread
That article makes it sound as if a lower production rate, say a steady 1.2 Mbbl/d, would have kewpt the field going for another decade. How much truth is there in that assertion? _________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2008 4:44 pm Post subject: Re: Mexico: Pemex and Cantarell News And Discussion Thread
Here is a really good explanation of what's happening in Mexico
http://www.pemex.com/index.cfm?action=content§ionID=137&catID=12222
They expect that in a few years Cantarell will be over, and they are accepting that the cheap easy oil era is gone in Mexico and the world.
They think that when Calderons gov. is ending they will produce between 600 and 700 000 barrels per day. It also says that they know that even if they drill in other places they will never be able to produce what we did. So we are accepting that we are in trouble.
Someone said that didn't think that mexican people would make such a big deal about this. Well I live in Mexico and I'm really worried that the ignorant will feel that its all the gov. fault and try to do sth REALLY stupid.
About the one that says it will stop mexicans from going to the US I really doubt that PO will do that, the only way would be if you are in worse problems that we. Even if there are no cars to move, here we still have horses, donkeys and lots and lots of bycicles!
So when things start getting worse here, expect many more mexicans going over there.
Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2008 4:51 pm Post subject: Re: Mexico: Pemex and Cantarell News And Discussion Thread
natts wrote:
Here is a really good explanation of what's happening in Mexico
http://www.pemex.com/index.cfm?action=content§ionID=137&catID=12222
They expect that in a few years Cantarell will be over, and they are accepting that the cheap easy oil era is gone in Mexico and the world.
They think that when Calderons gov. is ending they will produce between 600 and 700 000 barrels per day. It also says that they know that even if they drill in other places they will never be able to produce what we did. So we are accepting that we are in trouble.
Someone said that didn't think that mexican people would make such a big deal about this. Well I live in Mexico and I'm really worried that the ignorant will feel that its all the gov. fault and try to do sth REALLY stupid.
About the one that says it will stop mexicans from going to the US I really doubt that PO will do that, the only way would be if you are in worse problems that we. Even if there are no cars to move, here we still have horses, donkeys and lots and lots of bycicles!
So when things start getting worse here, expect many more mexicans going over there.
I think that it is going to be a trick, but you may be right.
In a handful of years there will be no safe place.
Really - enjoy life today. _________________ 500 MPH into a brick wall - me
Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2008 5:05 pm Post subject: Re: Mexico: Pemex and Cantarell News And Discussion Thread
P,
The choice between water injection and N (or any other gas) is determined by the type of reservoir drive is involved. It's a rather long explanation but the short answer is that the type of drive fond in cantarell is suitable for water injection. But you're certainly right about water injetion being cheaper. But you can't just pump any water into a reservoir. It has to be chemically compatible. Sometimes salt water will work...some times you need to use fresh water. And there are some reservoir where neither water or gas injection works.
I'm sorry I can't take the time to go into more detail but I have a rule about escaping PO on the weekends. Besides PO I work in the oil patch the other 5 days. Just a way to avoid burn out.
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