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Cold War heats up with a vengence
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EnergyUnlimited
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 23, 2008 10:04 am    Post subject: Re: Cold War heats up with a vengence Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

dissident wrote:
Russia made a big mistake by not invading ALL of Georgia and removing the Saakashvili regime. It made another mistake by signing the French ceasefire plan without demanding military exclusion zones around Abkhazia and South Ossetia as an explicit point (currently it is implicit). NATO can hardly complain about buffer zones which would prevent Georgian artillery and MLRS attacks on Abkhazian and South Ossetian population centers. But now we have Bush and pals trying to read whatever they want into the ceasefire as if they are explicit parties in the conflict (hey, I guess they are).

Wrong. There was no mistake here. NATO can do nothing in that respect except of a lot of whining. The alternative would take a shape of WW III.

It is not important, what Bush is trying to read out of that. Russians will not take much notice of that.

Bush and neocons are just a bundle of clowns in that show off.
They whine a lot and can do nothing unless they actually want this impending atomic war to proceed right now.
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Scactha
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 23, 2008 3:50 pm    Post subject: Re: Cold War heats up with a vengence Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Cid_Yama wrote:
“If one is to follow the secretary of state’s logic, it would be appropriate to ask this question – if training flights by our aircraft are ’a dangerous game,’ what term should be applied to the emergence of components of the US strategic anti-ballistic missile defense close to Russian borders? Such double standards can drive any international problem into a dead end.” link

It´s tragically hilarious. In similar vein to the demands that the chinese explain expanding their defense budget. Yet, the explanation given for missile silos in Europe is currently non-existent but possibly future Iranian missiles? Does anyone outside the last PNAC meeting locale believe that?
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 23, 2008 5:01 pm    Post subject: Re: Cold War heats up with a vengence Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Nickel wrote:
because US want EU to either fail or be its bitch, and Russia isolated. When US lead the "new Europe" countries into a confrontation with the Russia, the "old Europe" have 2 choices.
1.stand-by and face criticism from US and "new Europe" countries, this will effectively divide the EU into 2 blocs and lead to its eventual break-up, and allow US to insert itself between Russia and "old Europe" and control the pipelines between the two.
2.join the assaut on Russia and lose access to Russian energy supply, which will force EU to become dependent on US controlled middle east oil.
actually there is a 3rd choice for "old Europe", which is to ditch US and invite Russia in, but that's only theoretic and seems inconceivable at the moment, though in my view, that's the only way to a greater unified Europe with peace and strength.

This is all fine and dandy as far as plans go, but don't you think the united states is in the wrong continent to "insert itself between Russia and "old Europe" and control the pipelines between the two."? Logistical impossibility aside, people and politicians really despise what the current administration of the united states has done so much so, that diplomatically/politically the united states will not control something as precious as oil/nat.gas pipelines in the Caucasus. This will never happen - if there ever was a window of opportunity for something like that to happen the current administration of the US has firmly closed that window and locked it tight.

Please do not forget that european countries are not war economies like the US is, and that people are not brainwashed with communist/russia fear here. War between the big players in the EU and Russia is extremely unlikely - diplomacy will prevail.
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 23, 2008 11:01 pm    Post subject: Re: Cold War heats up with a vengence Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Scactha wrote:
the explanation given for missile silos in Europe is currently non-existent but possibly future Iranian missiles? Does anyone outside the last PNAC meeting locale belive that?

And what do you think they are for?
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 24, 2008 9:47 am    Post subject: Re: Cold War heats up with a vengence Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Ukraine moves closer to Civil War
A little background:
Yulia Tymoshenko is Ukraine's Prime Minister. She is backed by the pro-Russian majority many of whom have long held a desire to return to the former Soviet Union.

Viktor Yushchenko is Ukraine's President, current NATO wannabe and Bush Administration sychophant. He is supported by a minority of Ukranian nationalists who began as a resistance movement during the Soviet era.

Yushchenko has made the first move by accusing Tymoshenko of treason and has launched a witch hunt to try to dig up evidence of corruption against Tymoshenko and her supporters within the government.

Both have support within the Ukrainian military, but a majority are pro-Russian having begun their careers in the Soviet military and are admirers of Putin who is promising a return to former Soviet glory and an expanded military.

Ukrainian prime minister accused of high treason in Russia’s favor
President Viktor Yushchenko’s secretariat has qualified Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko’s actions as high treason and political corruption. Timoshenko was called back from a vacation in Italy. link

Ukraine to check PM Tymoshenko for illegal activity
Ukraine's security service has been given presidential instructions to check the government - right up to Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko - for any activity that could "harm the country's national interests," the UNIAN news agency reported Thursday. (VIDEO)

The collected data will be processed thoroughly under the law on Ukraine's security service, the news agency said. If the trawl uncovers evidence that Ukrainian government officials have carried out illegal activities, the material will be sent to the country's top prosecutors. link

The West is moving quickly in an attempt to co-opt Ukraine before the Pro-Russian majority and Russia can stop them.

This is a stupid move which can only lead to civil war as a majority of the Ukrainian military will not follow Yushchenko, and will oppose him.

Russia also will not take a move like this lying down.

It's like Bush is pushing for Armageddon before he leaves office.
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Cid_Yama
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 24, 2008 10:58 am    Post subject: Re: Cold War heats up with a vengence Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Rhetoric over Poland heats up
"It's also the case that when you threaten Poland, you perhaps forget that it is not 1988," Rice said. "It's 2008 and the United States has a ... firm treaty guarantee to defend Poland's territory as if it was the territory of the United States. So it's probably not wise to throw these threats around."

Hours after the signing, Russia's Foreign Ministry warned that Moscow's response would go beyond diplomacy. The system to be based in Poland lacks "any target other than Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles," it said in a statement, contending the U.S. system "will be broadened and modernized."

"In this case Russia will be forced to react, and not only through diplomatic" channels, it said without elaborating.

Along with the main deal, the two nations signed a so-called "declaration on strategic cooperation," which is to deepen their military and political partnership.

It includes a mutual commitment to come to each other's assistance immediately if one is under attack - enhancing existing obligations both have as NATO members. link

This is the same deal that brought the Allies into WWII when Germany and Russia invaded Poland in September 1939. (Yes, Russia was on Germany's side at the start of the war. Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact)
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 24, 2008 11:44 am    Post subject: Re: Cold War heats up with a vengence Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Just to add some historical content to the endless drivel about Stalin's and Hitler's supposed alliance: Poland did not get carved up in the east. Poland seized western Ukraine and Belorus after the Russian revolution based on some delusions about the Grand Duchy of Lithuania. These lands had majority Ukrainian and Belorussian populations before and after the Polish land grab. Stalin took the chance to take back these lands, when he knew Hitler would invade Poland anyway, which are now part of Ukraine and Belorus. Look at the map of the "carved up Poland" it is nothing like some half and half split. Of course Stalin also grabbed Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania and attempted to create a land buffer around Leningrad in south-eastern Finland. Finland was a German ally at the time. I don't think that the Baltic states were loyal to Hitler so Stalin's move was counterproductive. The Molotov-Ribbentrop pact bought the USSR enough time to increase its war preparedness by 40%. It also soured the UK's initial support for Nazi Germany as a bulwark against Bolshevism. Not a bad diplomatic maneuver at all.
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 24, 2008 11:49 am    Post subject: Re: Cold War heats up with a vengence Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Re: Yushenko

This stooge is as desperate as Saakashvili. Now he is going after his Orange Revolution allies in hysterical fits of paranoia. Yushenko the supposed democrat, brazenly meddled in the Constitutional Court last year to ensure that he could retain presidential powers that were reduced in 2004 as part of the Orange Revolution. He cares not that over two thirds of the population do not want to join NATO, he is the "decider" like his boss Bush the younger. He also has only 10% popular support but that ain't gonna stop him.
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 24, 2008 3:16 pm    Post subject: Re: Cold War heats up with a vengence Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Frankly, I don't think they plan to leave. You don't start something like this if you plan to be gone in 5 months. I shouldn't be surprised. After they stole the last 2 elections, I knew it was over. They will just steal it again and we then get WWIII.

If I was the Russians, I would launch a pre-emptive strike with cruise missiles and not take the chance. Yes I know I'll be dead, I'm just stating from a war gamers point of view.

These guys are going to do it. You know they are. God I hate the Bush Administration. They are going to be the death of us all and if the people of this country only had balls they would have stopped this when they stole the first election, let alone the second.

Frankly, I would prefer dying instantly in a fireball, compared to dying in 140F temps over an extended period of time.

Come on. Let's just get this over with. Then I get a young body in my next incarnation, and get to play the new game of post-technological world somewhere near the poles.
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 24, 2008 5:48 pm    Post subject: Re: Cold War heats up with a vengence Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Cid_Yama wrote:
Frankly, I don't think they plan to leave. You don't start something like this if you plan to be gone in 5 months. I shouldn't be surprised. After they stole the last 2 elections, I knew it was over. They will just steal it again and we then get WWIII.

What you said makes perfect sense.
There is one more thing I'd like to call to your attention. I think they will push for WWIII only if they believe that they will be safe from the destruction that ensues, and that they will be the last man standing.
But how? Where will be their hiding places? and which forces are they commanding? When things go bad, any country can be hit and the military might attempt coup once they realized what's going on.
the reason that TPTB have always come out on the winner's side is that they have always bet on both sides when the match is close. How can they hedge their risk this time? assuming one party--Russia, is not in their grip.


Last edited by gmin on Sun Aug 24, 2008 6:19 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 24, 2008 6:17 pm    Post subject: Re: Cold War heats up with a vengence Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

phaeryen wrote:
This is all fine and dandy as far as plans go, but don't you think the united states is in the wrong continent to "insert itself between Russia and "old Europe" and control the pipelines between the two."? Logistical impossibility aside, people and politicians really despise what the current administration of the united states has done so much so, that diplomatically/politically the united states will not control something as precious as oil/nat.gas pipelines in the Caucasus. This will never happen - if there ever was a window of opportunity for something like that to happen the current administration of the US has firmly closed that window and locked it tight.
Please do not forget that european countries are not war economies like the US is, and that people are not brainwashed with communist/russia fear here. War between the big players in the EU and Russia is extremely unlikely - diplomacy will prevail

Ukraine and Poland are the 2 countries that sit between Russia and "Old Europe", all land based pipelines have to go through these 2 countries. You will soon find out whether they are more of "European countries" or "US allies".
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 24, 2008 9:11 pm    Post subject: Re: Cold War heats up with a vengence Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Nord Stream is supposed to be a major bypass to the pipeline through Ukraine. The countries most actively blocking it are the Baltic states and Sweden. Russia is being way too soft on the freaking west. It should be Nord Stream or no stream. Threat of WWII sea mines, what a howler.
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 24, 2008 10:42 pm    Post subject: Re: Cold War heats up with a vengence Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

dissident wrote:
Nord Stream is supposed to be a major bypass to the pipeline through Ukraine. The countries most actively blocking it are the Baltic states and Sweden. Russia is being way too soft on the freaking west. It should be Nord Stream or no stream. Threat of WWII sea mines, what a howler.

As far as North Stream goes. I would think that after Russia invaded Georgia, Baltic states would do everything to block the project. They have been successful so far in stalling it, but now it is totally different ball game. The memories of Russian invasion are too fresh in Baltic.

This way or another, Russian invasion made the project a lot more expensive. I figure once the dust settles Gazprom and not E.ON would have to bear the majority of the risk, and Gazprom just cannot afford to do it.

On another side, the invasion of Georgia alienated all of the transit countries for Russian NG. This outcome would have been anticipated as well as isolation by all world countries (Cuba and Venezuela aside). That makes me think that the business of selling NG is not running smoothly, since somehow all that NG discovered by Soviets started to run dry. Loosing "partners" (like Putin likes to call them) that took a while to acquire in one bold move is either stupidity/miscalculation/etc or very calculated move - "When the party is over, turn off the light".
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 1:29 am    Post subject: Re: Cold War heats up with a vengence Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

dissident wrote:
Just to add some historical content to the endless drivel about Stalin's and Hitler's supposed alliance: Poland did not get carved up in the east. Poland seized western Ukraine and Belorus after the Russian revolution based on some delusions about the Grand Duchy of Lithuania. These lands had majority Ukrainian and Belorussian populations before and after the Polish land grab. Stalin took the chance to take back these lands, when he knew Hitler would invade Poland anyway, which are now part of Ukraine and Belorus.

There was nothing like "polish land grab on the east" because there was nothing to grab there.
Ukraine was never an independent state and it was always ruled by combination of Poles, Russians and Turks as history of last 8 centuries goes.
It was only wars between these 3 nations, what was deciding about who rules which part.

Current "independent" Ukraine is only an aberration and it is unlikely to last for long.
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 6:44 am    Post subject: Re: Cold War heats up with a vengence Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

gmin wrote:
Ukraine and Poland are the 2 countries that sit between Russia and "Old Europe", all land based pipelines have to go through these 2 countries. You will soon find out whether they are more of "European countries" or "US allies".

Well, Ukraine could probably use all the friends it can get. But as for Poland, it only recently joined both NATO and the EU. Getting between other EU members and the energy their economies need would be EXTREMELY stupid, and likely illegal. It would not make them ANY friends east of the low tide mark of the coast of Maine. They'd be simultaneously at odds with Berlin and Moscow... never a good idea for Poland.
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