2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season

Micki

If that beast is going to be CAT3 while passing Cuba, and then reach spa tempered water of the gulf, does that mean it will most likely work it's way up to 4-5?
_________________
It's not a bailout, it's a buy-in" - Nancy Pelosi

wisconsin_cur

I am pretty sure that it does.
_________________
“It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him.”

J.R.R. Tolkien

"The time has come for men to act like men; and for women, well, to act a lot more like men."
-Ma Cur

Rohese · Coal Joined: Jul 30, 2008 Posts: 16 Location: Oklahoma

It certainly sounds as if that is a possibility.

GoghGoner · Intermediate Crude Joined: Apr 10, 2008 Posts: 516

Well, the latest track takes it into the middle of the GOM as a hurricane. Depending on the numbers in the weekly EIA report, this hurricane could be the most devastating to oil supply even if it takes a small portion offline since gasoline is closing in on MOL levels without
any help.

pup55 · Expert Joined: May 26, 2004 Posts: 3861

The Nymex traders have not quite yet picked up on the fact that the current unleaded inventory is way low....we have this potential hurricane going into the potential gulf of mexico and potentially being a category 4 or 5 by the time it potentially gets to the oil infrastructure....not at all certain where along the gulf coast it will hit.....

We might have to issue a "red gas can" alert for this one. Time to lay in a supply of popcorn for sure.....

Alnitaka · Tar Sands Joined: Apr 22, 2005 Posts: 47

I'm surprised the price of oil has not gone up. The GFDL model shows this storm developing into a cat 5 hurricane and then then heading towards eastern Louisiana as a cat 3.

bl00k

f2tornado · Tar Sands Joined: Jun 21, 2008 Posts: 51

Plenty of oil bears out right now but the shorts will be covering and the longs will go ballistic this week if the model guidance consensus verifies. I see no reason this storm will not be a major in the Gulf. We could even see a Cat 4/5 near Cuba which would get some panic going in the U.S. I was thinking south-central Louisiana would be ground zero given a potential weakness in the building ridge in the wake of Fay but the further south the storm goes the further west it strays. Now Houston and Port Aurther will need to keep close tabs on this one as well. The fastest way toward $6 gas would be a direct strike on Houston. The next option would be a hard hit at Port Fourchon, LA where the Loop terminal unloads the supertankers... and we all know what a NOLA strike would do.

frankthetank

Borrowed from Eastern... WOW... Not looking good.

_________________
Clothing should be optional.

Alnitaka · Tar Sands Joined: Apr 22, 2005 Posts: 47

A strike on Houston would produce $6 gasoline but wouldn't it also cause the price of crude oil to continue its decline? Oil is worthless unless you can refine it, and a strike like that would destroy refineries.

DantesPeak

Cynus · Intermediate Crude Joined: Aug 13, 2004 Posts: 610

During the year of hurricane Katrina, I remembering hearing someone say that there are two types of hurricanes. There are those that form way out in the Atlantic and move westward towards North America, and then there are those that form right in the Carribean and move into the Gulf of Mexico. It is this latter, much less common type that can grow to Cat 5 and are the real threat to Texas and Louisiana. Lucklily this type is very atypical and only occurrs rarely. Is this correct or is my memory innacurate? I've noticed so far this year that both Fay and Gustav have popped up right in the Carribean.
_________________
One of these now am I too, a fugitive from the gods and a wanderer, at the mercy of raging Strife.
--Empedocles

http://apoxonbothyourhouses.blogspot.com

shortonoil · Fission Joined: Dec 02, 2004 Posts: 2752 Location: VA USA

pup55 said:

no_name · Tar Sands Joined: May 08, 2006 Posts: 43

Just got this from storm2k.........

Issued in New Orleans...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED BT STORMKATS WEATHER OFFICE CONCERNING GUSTAV..WE HAVE 2 SCENARIOS WE CAN SEE GOING ON WITH GUSTAV RIGHT NOW IT COULD TAKE....SCENARIO #1 THERE IS A TROUGH INFLUENCING GUSTAV FROM THE ATLANTIC CAUSING IT TO MOVE ON A MORE NW PATH..IF GUSTAV TAKES THIS PATH IT WILL DEFINITELY PASS OVER MORE OF CUBA AND IT WOULD EMERGE OUT INT0 THE GOM AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM JUST WEST OF KEY WEST.....HOWEVER IF IT TAKES SCENARIO #2 AS THE TROUGH MISSES GUSTAV AND THE HIGH BUILDS IN OVER FLA AND CUBA FORCING GUSTAV TO MISS CENTRAL CUBA AND FORCING IT MORE OVER WESTERN CUBA OR BETWEEN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND EMERGES OUT IN THE GOM AS A CAT 3 HURRICANE...WE DONT WANT THIS TO HAPPEN ITS NOT GOOD FOR US..THE STT IN THAT PART OF THE GOM ARE NEAR 90 DEGREES WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTAV TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AND BECOME A POSSIBLE CAT 5 HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES ITS TARGET SOMEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST..ITS JUST TO EARLY TO TELL THERE IS A STRONG TROUGH SET TO ROLL ON DOWN SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK..WILL THAT HAVE A STRONG EFFECT PULLING GUSTAV ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK..WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE FOLKS ITS JUST TO EARLY TO CALL...THE BEST ADVICE I CAN GIVE THE PEOPLE ON THE NORTHERN GULFCOAST IS TO CHECK ALL EMERGENCY SUPPLIES AND TO IMPLEMENT A PLAN OF ACTION IN CASE GUSTV HEADS OUR WAY ...FOLKS THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH IT AND JUST HOPE GUSTAV DOES NOT PARRALELL CUBA .....IF IT DOES THIS WE HAVE A SERIOUS SITUATION DEVELOPING AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IT CLOSELY..HOPEFULLY IT TAKES SCENARIO #1 AND IS ONLY A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES JUST WEST OF KEY WEST....I WILL KEEP YOU INFORMED ..THIS HAS BEEN A SPECIAL WEATHER ADVISORY FROM THE STORMKATS WEATHER OFFICE IN NEW ORLEANS LA.....StormKat

AirlinePilot

I think there is building consensus that Gustav makes it into the south central GOM and that the environment is very favorable for further development. Lets all be patient and wait and see. There are still some outlying model solutions which push this into Mexico. Might be bad for Cantarell then and even that could be bad due to their situation.

Ultimately if this heads anywhere near Houston, I'd get some extra driving fuel stashed somewhere. The possibility that it is a major Hurricane which makes landfall somewhere along the Gulf coast seems to be going up significantly.

A cat 3-4 nto the Galveston/Houston ship channel is basically the nightmare scenario which I believe would be ten time worse for our situation than Katrina.

I'd like to hear from our energy folks about what a cat 4-5 inside the GOM oil infrastructure means to the still rebuilding hardware there.