Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2008 7:38 am Post subject: Re: Oil Shale updates?
If anyone is interested in the opinion of a shale country resident most of us really don't think there will be anything more than experimental shale plays until oil reaches $300. That is a completely arbitrary figure, but because of the lack of modern extraction equipment and truly viable methods, environmental opposition, complex refining requirements, limited pipeline infrastructure, etc. the local view is that oil will have to reach a level that will threaten critical damage to the US economy before any serious development would begin. At that point any domestic source would be helpful, but we better hope T. Boone has his wind ginnys up and running before then. To quote a line I heard somewhere, the cavalry will arrive just in time to clean the bodies from the battlefield.
Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2008 8:14 am Post subject: Re: Oil Shale updates?
gregg,
Beside all the factors you threw out I had always heard the big killer problem was the amount of water needed for the process and it's relative scarcity in you parts. True?
Posted: Fri Aug 22, 2008 11:20 am Post subject: Re: Oil Shale updates?
I don't know how many times I have drugged out this little gem. It was true 50 years ago and it is just as real today.
Kenneth F. Deffeyes in "Beyond Oil, A View from Hubbert's Peak" wrote:
When oil was $3 per barrel, many people said that if oil ever reached $8 per barrel, Green River oil shale would have its revenge on Spindletop and shut down the oil industry.
No matter how expensive crude becomes the Law of Receding Horizons tells us that substitutes will always be priced accordingly. They are afterall, subsidized by petroleum in the form of rigs, roads, labor, all indexed to the inflating petroleum.
Even when crude rises to $500 or $1,000 unconventionals will remain a blip, a meaningless luxary reserved for generals or billionaires perhaps. _________________ ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap
Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 12:00 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Shale updates?
ROCKMAN wrote:
gregg,
Beside all the factors you threw out I had always heard the big killer problem was the amount of water needed for the process and it's relative scarcity in you parts. True?
Absolutely true Rockman. At least for the conventional in situ processes. The techies are holding out hope for microwave technology. Theoretically it should not require the water that the freeze wall processes would. Interestingly, Shell has been a huge buyer of water rights in the Colorado River drainage. Their plan, already well under way, is to build a coal fired power plant on the CO/UT border. In talking with Shell reps their basic thinking is that water and power will both be extremely valuable resources in this part of the country whether an oil shale industry materializes or not. That's pretty solid thinking from where I sit.
Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 5:14 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Shale updates?
gregg1961 wrote:
ROCKMAN wrote:
gregg,
Beside all the factors you threw out I had always heard the big killer problem was the amount of water needed for the process and it's relative scarcity in you parts. True?
Absolutely true Rockman. At least for the conventional in situ processes. The techies are holding out hope for microwave technology. Theoretically it should not require the water that the freeze wall processes would. Interestingly, Shell has been a huge buyer of water rights in the Colorado River drainage. Their plan, already well under way, is to build a coal fired power plant on the CO/UT border. In talking with Shell reps their basic thinking is that water and power will both be extremely valuable resources in this part of the country whether an oil shale industry materializes or not. That's pretty solid thinking from where I sit.
Of course. Shell has been playing with shale oil for decades but as a cover, they always understood it was a waste of time. They were just after the water.
Anyone for a 'Shell-Shale Valley' (actually in-situ underground) Spring Water'? Now available in 'High-Octane Energy" and 'Petroleum-Chemo flavors.'
"Drive, don't walk, to your nearest gas station for all three flavors." _________________ ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap
Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 7:42 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Shale updates?
pstarr wrote:
I don't know how many times I have drugged out this little gem. It was true 50 years ago and it is just as real today.
Kenneth F. Deffeyes in "Beyond Oil, A View from Hubbert's Peak" wrote:
When oil was $3 per barrel, many people said that if oil ever reached $8 per barrel, Green River oil shale would have its revenge on Spindletop and shut down the oil industry.
No matter how expensive crude becomes the Law of Receding Horizons tells us that substitutes will always be priced accordingly.
The real reason shale oil will remain uncompetitive isn't that the production price increases forever, but rather that all the other alternatives are so much cheaper and theres only so much capital to go around. Deepwater oil, coal liquefaction and tar sands all offer far lower production prices than shale oil, and this is where the capital will flow for many years to come.
Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 12:13 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Shale updates?
Here is an article that talks about all the work that is being done on shale. I thought only Shell was currently working on it, but apparently 9 companies are. Who knows what will happen, i'm not holding my breath though.
Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 12:22 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Shale updates?
JustaGirl,
Given the huge potential I suspect someone will be working on the problem indefinately. But it's a big problem compared to other resource plays. You may already know it but there's actually no oil in the shale. It's a solid, kerogene, which can processed into synthetic oil. But as a solid it can't be produced. Early mining efforts just didn't work economicly. Now Shell, and maybe all those others, are trying to develop methods to liquify the kerogene in place. Production technology to produce liquids from such rocks is developing very quickly. But it has to be converted to a liquid before there's any chance.
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 5:06 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Shale updates?
Yep a lot of huge hurdles to overcome & we probably don't have the time, but it's better than nothing I suppose. Shell's process does turn the kerogen into a liquid in-situ & then they can pump it. They have made it work on a small scale. They said they'll decide within the next decade whether to go commercial with it or not
It was an interesting article if nothing else. I have never heard of some of the methods they can use, like raytheon. I know the governor of our state is pushing for our shale to be developed.
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 8:44 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Shale updates?
ROCKMAN wrote:
JustaGirl,
Given the huge potential I suspect someone will be working on the problem indefinately. But it's a big problem compared to other resource plays. You may already know it but there's actually no oil in the shale. It's a solid, kerogene, which can processed into synthetic oil. But as a solid it can't be produced.
The same holds for coal, except its cheaper to produce synfuel from coal. Its pretty easy to guess where the capital will flow. Looking at the spot price of oil is a distraction. Look at the production price for new liquid fuels, and that tells the story of where the new plays will be.
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3626 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 12:24 am Post subject: Re: Oil Shale updates?
gregg1961 wrote:
I was in Parachute in for Black Sunday in 1982, I still own a business there and only live about an hour away now. What I can tell you is that the price drop of oil that year really didn't have anything to do with Exxon pulling out, it was just a convenient excuse. Exxon didn't have enough (electric) power or water to run an in-situ operation and was not having any luck putting the pieces of the puzzle together. Shell is the only one who has that part working right now, but no one did then.
Assuming you mean the electricity and water were factors in the overall cost, which was $5-8 billion for 50 kb/d, which was obviously uneconomic.
Agree with Dezakin that the real money is elsewhere. Shale gets a lot of press because uninformed pundits like to froth about the trillions of barrels the domestic US sports, oh! the agony. Talking about GTL/EOR/CTL/etc is comparatively mundane. And we've seen how informed politicos are about simple conservation approaches like keeping tires inflated. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 7:05 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Shale updates?
ROCKMAN wrote:
JustaGirl,
Given the huge potential I suspect someone will be working on the problem indefinately. But it's a big problem compared to other resource plays. You may already know it but there's actually no oil in the shale. It's a solid, kerogene, which can processed into synthetic oil. But as a solid it can't be produced. Early mining efforts just didn't work economicly. Now Shell, and maybe all those others, are trying to develop methods to liquify the kerogene in place. Production technology to produce liquids from such rocks is developing very quickly. But it has to be converted to a liquid before there's any chance.
What role does water play in making the kerogene into a synthetic oil ?
Posted: Tue Sep 02, 2008 5:29 am Post subject: Re: Oil Shale updates?
EE,
I don't know the details but utilizing the strip mine method they use the water to wash the kerogene out of the shale. I vaguely remembered tha the run off was rather toxic also.
I don't know the details but utilizing the strip mine method they use the water to wash the kerogene out of the shale. I vaguely remembered tha the run off was rather toxic also.
That's right, water is essentially a solvent to release the kerogene and natural gas. Shell also tested the freeze wall in-situ process using steam as the heat source which obviously takes water.
Joined: Jun 18, 2006 Posts: 57 Location: Dallas, Texas
Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 3:04 am Post subject: Re: Oil Shale updates?
doesn't matter much right now how many bbl come out of oil shales... we don't have the people or equipment to get it out of the ground - a moot point for many years right now... sorry.
check out the oil shales section of energyDigger.com and you will see reports all over hte web referencing this.
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