Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 5:50 pm Post subject: Re: I want it to happen
Spanktron9 wrote:
J
I have thought quite a bit that those with current or recent military experience, especially spec-ops or small unit specialists. They would have a strong advantage physically, mentally and economically. These individuals have been hardened to enviromental hardship, have useful skills in scavenging, field medicine, security, recon, base defense. etc. Plus they fully appreciate the power of teamwork and the importance of unit integrity (working toward a common goal). I wonder if surviving communities won't "hire" some of these individuals for security in return for food, women, etc. Doesn't seem implausible.
I think these kind of people would be absolutely hopeless. Generally most of these guys wouldn't even get out of bed unless there was a corporal yelling at them, they do what they're told because they get 3 square meals a day, not because they're some kind of super-motivated survivalist that would be any use at all outside of the military.
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 13191 Location: naive idiot fantasy world
Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 6:35 pm Post subject: Re: I want it to happen
ReverseEngineer wrote:
Anyhow, I'll make my latest bet for Tax Time next year.
Oh yeah, right. The government will collapse by tax time next year?
Is that really what you're saying?
Unemployment is probably nowhere near Great Depression levels (it was approx 25% then, you know) - did the government collapse during the Great Depression?
I guess, I'm just wondering how you figure TSHTF so soon.... _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow." - jboogy
Last edited by Ludi on Mon Aug 25, 2008 6:40 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 6:40 pm Post subject: Re: I want it to happen
vilemerchant wrote:
I think these kind of people would be absolutely hopeless. Generally most of these guys wouldn't even get out of bed unless there was a corporal yelling at them, they do what they're told because they get 3 square meals a day, not because they're some kind of super-motivated survivalist that would be any use at all outside of the military.
Have to agree with joel for once (!), this statement is false on every count. _________________ "The future power is manpower"
Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 6:48 pm Post subject: Re: I want it to happen
I don't think the government will fail by tax time. There's no way we could be so lucky. There are two things that won't go away, and they are death and taxes.
The whole thing is in trouble, but there is no way it could collapse so fast. _________________ Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
Joined: Dec 25, 2005 Posts: 607 Location: Hillsboro, West Virginia
Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:45 pm Post subject: Re: I want it to happen
Revi wrote:
I don't think the government will fail by tax time. There's no way we could be so lucky. There are two things that won't go away, and they are death and taxes. The whole thing is in trouble, but there is no way it could collapse so fast.
There might always be someone demanding you pay him taxes, or whatever else he chooses to call it: extortion, tribute, required donations, protection fees. But that doesn't mean that the fellow doing the most convincing demanding tomorrow will be the same as the fellow doing it today.
For example, I expect that in a few decades, Arizona, NM, Socal, and Westex will be fiefs of Mexico. The whole area will promptly turn to a desert of sand and rusted metal stuff, at which the Mexicans will begin reaching further into the American heartland. This expansion has no diplomatic solution and requires a military answer from the Americans, or else it'll be death that we are paying, instead of taxes.
Joined: Jun 03, 2008 Posts: 198 Location: Terrified beyond the capacity for rational thought
Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 10:10 pm Post subject: Re: I want it to happen
vilemerchant wrote:
Spanktron9 wrote:
J
I have thought quite a bit that those with current or recent military experience, especially spec-ops or small unit specialists. They would have a strong advantage physically, mentally and economically. These individuals have been hardened to enviromental hardship, have useful skills in scavenging, field medicine, security, recon, base defense. etc. Plus they fully appreciate the power of teamwork and the importance of unit integrity (working toward a common goal). I wonder if surviving communities won't "hire" some of these individuals for security in return for food, women, etc. Doesn't seem implausible.
I think these kind of people would be absolutely hopeless. Generally most of these guys wouldn't even get out of bed unless there was a corporal yelling at them, they do what they're told because they get 3 square meals a day, not because they're some kind of super-motivated survivalist that would be any use at all outside of the military.
Are you serious? Do you have any idea the kind of SELF discipline, sacrifice and dedication to duty it takes to even become a spec-op soldier? Let alone make a career out of it?
Those individuals who succeed in Spec-ops possess all of the skills that just about any business would seek in high level sales and executive management.
Spec-ops go through a triple-volunteer system. Because they volunteer for that MOS, they can be subjected to extreme training that would otherwise fall outside code. But since they can "quit" anytime and go back to regular duty, they are choosing to endure such training.
Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 12:58 am Post subject: Re: I want it to happen
Spanktron9 wrote:
vilemerchant wrote:
Spanktron9 wrote:
J
I have thought quite a bit that those with current or recent military experience, especially spec-ops or small unit specialists. They would have a strong advantage physically, mentally and economically. These individuals have been hardened to enviromental hardship, have useful skills in scavenging, field medicine, security, recon, base defense. etc. Plus they fully appreciate the power of teamwork and the importance of unit integrity (working toward a common goal). I wonder if surviving communities won't "hire" some of these individuals for security in return for food, women, etc. Doesn't seem implausible.
I think these kind of people would be absolutely hopeless. Generally most of these guys wouldn't even get out of bed unless there was a corporal yelling at them, they do what they're told because they get 3 square meals a day, not because they're some kind of super-motivated survivalist that would be any use at all outside of the military.
Are you serious? Do you have any idea the kind of SELF discipline, sacrifice and dedication to duty it takes to even become a spec-op soldier? Let alone make a career out of it?
Those individuals who succeed in Spec-ops possess all of the skills that just about any business would seek in high level sales and executive management.
Spec-ops go through a triple-volunteer system. Because they volunteer for that MOS, they can be subjected to extreme training that would otherwise fall outside code. But since they can "quit" anytime and go back to regular duty, they are choosing to endure such training.
Yeah special forces are certainly a different breed. Perhaps I was wrong on this topic, but I certainly believe a lot of people in the military live in a very sheltered world.
My only experience was as a reservist in the Australian Army. The regulars I met and trained with were often some of the most pathetic individuals I've ever met. Very good at being infantry, just had absolutely no idea about anything else.
Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 1:36 am Post subject: Re: I want it to happen
Ludi wrote:
Oh yeah, right. The government will collapse by tax time next year?
Is that really what you're saying?
Unemployment is probably nowhere near Great Depression levels (it was approx 25% then, you know) - did the government collapse during the Great Depression?
I guess, I'm just wondering how you figure TSHTF so soon....
I guess I need to be a little more clear. I think Tax Time will accelerate the downward slide so its apparent to many more people than we have right now on the PO board.
As you watch the revenues slide in all the major industries from Financial Services to Cars, you have to figure next year's Tax Revenues will be nowhere NEAR what last year's were. Deficit spending is getting progressively more difficult to engineer as other central banks balk at buying more treasury notes. So if you actually were going to meet Government Payroll, the only way would be to REALLY just Print Money, not just inflate the M3. With as many Government workers as we have, including the Soldiers, this would hit Main Street as Inflation almost Immediately, and compounded on the systemic inflation going on now due to scarcity in the oil supply, it would then start to run out of control. This would be OBVIOUS, and then Panic starts to set in.
Other solution of course would be to start laying off Government Workers and Soldiers in droves, but do that and the ability of the Government to administer and control becomes nil, so they won't do that.
No, the Government did not collapse with 25% Unemployment in the Great Depression, but of course there was the difference then that Oil was still plentiful right here on Home Soil; its not the case this time around. Also as mentioned in another thread, at the time the American population was still significantly Rural based, and subsistence farming for the population extant at that time was more possible than it is now. Today's population will have a harder time adjusting to massive unemployment than that population did.
In any event, I don't see this "Tax Time" scenario being the Instant Death of the US Government, any more than the currency collapse in Argentina in 2001 ended that Nation or Government. However, it certainly quite rapidly turned Buenos Aires into a Hell Hole from the Middle Class Sining Star of South America it once was. I'm sure many of you read the Blog from FerFal detailing his life since that crash.
At SOME point here we will Tip Over the Edge. I thought it would happen after Bear Stearns, I was wrong. I could be wrong on this one also, but it seems like the next real big shock to the economy. A massive shortfall in Tax Revenues will put a lot of stress on an already over stressed house of cards.
Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 2:05 am Post subject: Re: I want it to happen
Spanktron9 wrote:
vilemerchant wrote:
Spanktron9 wrote:
J
I have thought quite a bit that those with current or recent military experience, especially spec-ops or small unit specialists. They would have a strong advantage physically, mentally and economically. These individuals have been hardened to enviromental hardship, have useful skills in scavenging, field medicine, security, recon, base defense. etc. Plus they fully appreciate the power of teamwork and the importance of unit integrity (working toward a common goal). I wonder if surviving communities won't "hire" some of these individuals for security in return for food, women, etc. Doesn't seem implausible.
I think these kind of people would be absolutely hopeless. Generally most of these guys wouldn't even get out of bed unless there was a corporal yelling at them, they do what they're told because they get 3 square meals a day, not because they're some kind of super-motivated survivalist that would be any use at all outside of the military.
Are you serious? Do you have any idea the kind of SELF discipline, sacrifice and dedication to duty it takes to even become a spec-op soldier? Let alone make a career out of it?
Those individuals who succeed in Spec-ops possess all of the skills that just about any business would seek in high level sales and executive management.
Spec-ops go through a triple-volunteer system. Because they volunteer for that MOS, they can be subjected to extreme training that would otherwise fall outside code. But since they can "quit" anytime and go back to regular duty, they are choosing to endure such training.
Well first off, there are not huge numbers of retired "Spec Ops" floating around the society. As you yourself indicate, to even get this kind of training, you are selected out several times, and few make it through. The few you get out are extremely well trained hunting dogs basically. If they enjoy hunting and killing enough, they end up working for Halliburton as Soldiers of Fortune, or some other shadow organization.
No doubt, such people will be employed in Private Armies, but they won't be floating around the typical deprived community of say Columbus Ohio. Columbus becomes a version of Buenos Aires, corrupt cops looking for bribes and typical engineers and architects packing heat to get to work and hopefully keep from getting carjacked along the way.
Out on the farms around Columbus, the farmers will have to band together if they want to keep growing stuff, they will develop their own private security forces, probably composed of some National Guardsmen, some State Troopers and a few sons of farmers who get a rifle dropped in their hands and are told to sit upstairs in the house with the gun pointed out the window and to Shoot to Kill anything that moves that is not somebody they know. I find it unlikely that an Army of former Spec Ops is going to make a raid here, and if they do they probably are toast because this is NOT what they were trained for, and besides they would be vastly outnumbered.
Certainly if you have this training you could be a BIG help to your community. As a Trained Hunting Dog, you have great value, and you will be fed accordingly. I would not however expect such folks to end up in charge of anything, folks with this kind of mindset aren't usually the brightest bulbs in the box. They tend to be obsessed with being tougher than everyone else, being capable of extreme violence and being able themselves to withstand extreme pain and deprivation. Good for survival in some situations of course, but this situation demands some diplomacy, something a Spec Ops person is notoriously incapable of
I would be happy to have a Spec Ops person as one of my community, just as I think having a Rottweiler or Pit Bull would be handy to have around. MOST of the time however, such people are best kept on a very short leash, they just are too dangerous and unstable to let run wild.
Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 2:08 am Post subject: Re: I want it to happen
ReverseEngineer wrote:
So if you actually were going to meet Government Payroll, the only way would be to REALLY just Print Money, not just inflate the M3. With as many Government workers as we have, including the Soldiers, this would hit Main Street as Inflation almost Immediately, and compounded on the systemic inflation going on now due to scarcity in the oil supply, it would then start to run out of control. This would be OBVIOUS, and then Panic starts to set in.
What scarcity in the oil supply? Do you know of any countries or even any gas stations that want to have petrolium products but can't get any? Oil production is not yet in obvious decline, but thanks to the financial clusterfkuck in the US, demand is. There won't be any oil supply problems any time soon. The eurozone is in recession, America is probably in recession, huge demand destruction.
Quote:
At SOME point here we will Tip Over the Edge. I thought it would happen after Bear Stearns, I was wrong. I could be wrong on this one also, but it seems like the next real big shock to the economy. A massive shortfall in Tax Revenues will put a lot of stress on an already over stressed house of cards.
You're right here but it probably won't happen for a while yet. It doesn't matter if America can't pay their bills, they just run up the foreign debt higher and higher. The rest of the world either hasn't realised or is too scared to mention that America will soon be unable to repay its debts. It'd be like trying to tell the school bully that he owes you a dollar and you'd like it back now.
Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 2:43 am Post subject: Re: I want it to happen
vilemerchant wrote:
ReverseEngineer wrote:
So if you actually were going to meet Government Payroll, the only way would be to REALLY just Print Money, not just inflate the M3. With as many Government workers as we have, including the Soldiers, this would hit Main Street as Inflation almost Immediately, and compounded on the systemic inflation going on now due to scarcity in the oil supply, it would then start to run out of control. This would be OBVIOUS, and then Panic starts to set in.
What scarcity in the oil supply? Do you know of any countries or even any gas stations that want to have petrolium products but can't get any? Oil production is not yet in obvious decline, but thanks to the financial clusterfkuck in the US, demand is. There won't be any oil supply problems any time soon. The eurozone is in recession, America is probably in recession, huge demand destruction.
Quote:
At SOME point here we will Tip Over the Edge. I thought it would happen after Bear Stearns, I was wrong. I could be wrong on this one also, but it seems like the next real big shock to the economy. A massive shortfall in Tax Revenues will put a lot of stress on an already over stressed house of cards.
You're right here but it probably won't happen for a while yet. It doesn't matter if America can't pay their bills, they just run up the foreign debt higher and higher. The rest of the world either hasn't realised or is too scared to mention that America will soon be unable to repay its debts. It'd be like trying to tell the school bully that he owes you a dollar and you'd like it back now.
The scarcity isn't manifested as a shortage (yet), its manifested in the price. The fact its still available to buy doesn't mean people can afford to buy it. You think the price will go DOWN a whole lot so it does become affordable again? It might short term, but soon as it does and people start buying again, the price goes right back up.
Any product BARELY able to keep up with the demand is by DEFINITON scarce. Although demand destruction has kept oil from going short at gas stations so far, its still priced up at such a point it is scarce from the point of view of the consumer, because you cannot afford to buy much of it. Its not going to decrease in price tremendously, because in reality you can't actually produce more than the current population would consume if the price was low. The only way that happens is a vast decrease in population, which happens eventually but not overnight of course. I'd project out a generation on this one.
I am quite sure all the foreign banks holding bad American Paper are quite aware it cannot be paid off, which is why they to this point keep buying further issues of debt. However, this does appear to be slowing as each of these banks themselves have monetary imbalances. The National Bank of China is not a Cornucopia, and they can't continue buying debt without it affecting their own economy. Absolutely, all the foreign banks know that if the US Treasury goes Bankrupt, they also go bankrupt as well. So they are trying to prop it up, but they ALSO are running out of real production of wealth with which to do this. OF COURSE they don't want to admit it or make it explicit, unfortunately you cannot in perpetuity keep issuing irredeemable debt and rolling it over. If you could do that, nobody would ever go bankrupt, you could just get another credit card to sharge up all your expenditrues from the first card, and so on. Which of course is what individuals with credit cards have done, but the credit is locking up for them, and by extension it locks up as well for the larger institutions doing the same thing. You see it across the societies all over the world as the houses go into foreclosure in Britain, the US, Australia and the EU. Not so obvious yet in China because their debt is not in the private housing market so much, its in the factories they bult over the last 10 years. That debt is bad debt ALSO. Those factories won;t be selling many good at Walmart next year, inventories will rise and they will put out of work many Chinese. And so then, the Chinese cannot buy the debt we issue, whether they want to or not, whether they fear it or not.
The Central Bankers know all this of course, and they keep coming up with new ways to recycle the debt and rescale it, its quite remarkable really how they are doing this. However, a Tipping Point will occur, just its not certain what or when it will be. I finger Tax Time here in the US next year as a good Focal Point. I could be wrong of course.
Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 7:08 am Post subject: Re: I want it to happen
Quote:
Yeah special forces are certainly a different breed. Perhaps I was wrong on this topic, but I certainly believe a lot of people in the military live in a very sheltered world.
My only experience was as a reservist in the Australian Army. The regulars I met and trained with were often some of the most pathetic individuals I've ever met. Very good at being infantry, just had absolutely no idea about anything else.
Years ago while still in Law Enforecement I arrested a drunken pool service cleaner guy in a pick-up. He turned out to be Russian. I thoroughly searched him, handcuffed him behind his back, double locked and secured in the back seat cage for transport. Along the way the guy handed the handcuffs back to me under the cage hole as I drove. We then had a great conversation as he also showed me the knife he had secreted in his ?
Anyway he was former Spetsnaz and I have never had anyone else other than an extremely anorexic (and totally insane) young women with wrists like a twig, get the handcuffs off. Double locked hinged S&W cuffs are impossible. This guy had BIG wrists. Luckily he was a cool guy who, like many Russians, liked his Vodka. I never did see how he did it as he would say he'd be killed if he showed any "secrets", even in Amerika. He seemed dead serious on this point.
Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 7:17 am Post subject: Re: I want it to happen
There is one thing that soldiers possess that most ppl do not. The ability to pull the trigger on another human without thinking about it. Hesitation kills.
I would love to show you just what it is really like. I know the men who were on my kill team would take you out in two minutes and these guys are like me, getting older but still possess the will.
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