Preparation nearly impossible

alokin · Intermediate Crude Joined: Aug 24, 2007 Posts: 885

Preparation is nearly impossible with the double whammy PO + GW.

Preparation is yet difficult for PO, given that most can't simply by a farm, rely on an income which is mostly tied to a big city etc.

What makes things worse is that there is Climate Change as well and I guess it is far worse than PO.

You want to move to an ideal spot for PO, no heating required, but as earth heats up, you may cook there (and your crops)
You plant some apple and walnut trees, but climate changes and they won't get enough chill. But you can't plant lemons as it is now still too cold.
You move to a cold region, but unfortunately, this region stays cold and you freeze to death.
You invest in a super efficient heat system, which you may or may not nead in future.
Your nice solar panels get ripped off by a cyclone, which haven't been in your region since then.
And you planted something which needs lots of rain, but the rain does not come or date trees which can't stand rain.

How do you plan for that double problem? I think it is nearly impossible!

Ayame · Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 5:10 am Post subject: Re: Preparation nearly impossible

And don't forget the zombie hordes.

Whatever you've prepared, they'll want, and enough of them will be happy enough to prise your preps out of your cold dead hands.

patience · Expert Joined: Jan 04, 2008 Posts: 1762

alokin,

Yes, it is a most difficult problem. My look at this forced me finally to focus on the most critical thing, water. Without adequate water, nothing grows, and people can't live, so I decided that was most important. People have lived, with difficulty, in northern climates before fossil fuels, so it is possible. But no one can live in a desert without water, so we chose a temperate zone, and prepare as best we can.

Long term climate projections, which are only the best guess of science, say that our Ohio River Valley will experience some extremes of wet and dry, hot and cold. Local history says that during the Dust Bowl years of the 1930's, this area was very dry, but still produced modest crops. There is oral history borne out by artifacts, that Native Americans have lived in this area for about 10,000 years. There is a flint spear point on my desk that is supposed to be 7,000+ years old. Those earliest natives were nomads, who followed herds of bison. There have been native towns in the Ohio River Valley for at least 600 years, so the climate extremes for that period were endurable.

We were just on the edge of the severe drought in 2007, when hay crops failed causing many cattle to be sold. But spring rains never seem to fail here, so catching water for late summer use, and dryland farming methods, such as growing winter wheat, always seem to work in the worst of the past 100 years. In the best years, Indiana crops do very well, indeed.

In the future, I see the need for water catchment, winter wheat crops along with corn and beans that traditionally grow here, and water conservation. For winter extremes, we have recently had winters that were quite warm, followed by wet years that favored insects. And we also have had temps as low as 0 degrees F., with up to 3 feet of snow! (Only once.) The cold risks here are offset by heavy forest cover in hilly areas beside the farmed areas. The forests provide windbreaks, and plentiful wood for fuel if necessary, and of course building material.

This was the best we could find in the US. Anything can happen, so we could find ourselves like the man who, seeing WWII coming, moved his family from Australia to a remote island---called Guam! Out of the fat and into the fire, so to speak. We can only try our best to look forward.
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benzoil · Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 5:46 am Post subject: Re: Preparation nearly impossible

It's possible. Just annoying and filled with lots of "best guesses:"
First, take a gander at the latest climate projections for your region or continent. These are pretty variable from model to model, however, but should at least agree on general trends.

Second, identify areas that you like for 10/25/50 years out. Hopefully, there'll be some overlap.

Third, move there. City or country doesn't matter. If all ag production is local, then that region will feed itself.

Finally, wait 50 years and see if you guessed right! Smile

Seriously though, when I first left the city for the country, I did check out climate change maps to make sure that if my family lost it's mobility due to PO, that my kids would be able to make it in that area after the climate changed. (I was feeling mighty doomerish that day!)

In the end, I am still banking on a transition (for PO and Climate) that is slow enough that a person who is paying attention can adapt. As with anything, half the time you're doing well enough just to identify the variables, let alone predict or control them!
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Ronin · Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 5:57 am Post subject: Re: Preparation nearly impossible

I've been thinking along those lines recently too, no amount of prior action can prepare anyone for this but you can put the odds in your favor.

My preparations for lifestyle change to cope with energy decline are coming along quite nicely, to the point where I think myself and my family have a good chance in such a scenario.

The flip side is that we are 150mtrs away from the ocean, I'm expecting to wake up one morning {after fixing my coffee}walk outside to find we have beach front property.

I think its too late to move now so we have to do what we can with what we've got which is all I can advise to anyone.
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Heineken · Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 6:37 am Post subject: Re: Preparation nearly impossible

The feasibility of preparing depends largely on the amount of labor available to you (as usual, it all comes down to energy). If you're all by yourself or in a very small family, it will probably not be possible to survive, in the deteriorating environmental conditions, without the umbilical cord we're all attached to today.

I've arrived at this conclusion through personal experience.
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seahorse · Expert Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2258 Location: Arkansas

Preparing for PO on a Budget

Roccland · Peak Oil Prophet Joined: Jun 16, 2007 Posts: 1696

Mack12345 · Tar Sands Joined: Jun 02, 2008 Posts: 78

I agree ,
Preperation is nearly impossible in as much as a lot of peoples common concept of being prepared is . It seems to me that a lot of people seem to feel like "I live on a small organic sustainable farm with my family ... we have spent years learing and useing the skills required to get by off the grid .. most of us have a military background and have been intensely trained in self-defence .. we have a TON of guns and ammo ... we are gonna be just fine after TSHTF ."
The truth is one stroke of bad luck could reduce all this to nothing . The truth is one stroke of bad luck "IE huge chunk of rock impacts the earth" could render the very concept of PO mute , by wipeing out life as we know it .

In short .. Preps cannot ever , no matter how in depth gaurentee anything . There simply are no gaurentees in this life .

Preperations can however give you a better chance to pounce upon an oppertunity to survive , should you be lucky enough that such an noppertunity finds you .

Luck will be a very large factor but preperation in advance helps give luck a bigger/better "window" to step into your/your family's life .

benzoil · Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 7:21 am Post subject: Re: Preparation nearly impossible

Roccland · Peak Oil Prophet Joined: Jun 16, 2007 Posts: 1696

Nano · Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 7:35 am Post subject: Re: Preparation nearly impossible

Revi · Fusion Joined: Apr 25, 2005 Posts: 3537 Location: Maine

I think it's hard for the average person to get a farm together, and they will be saddled with a ton of debt until it's paid for. I see a garden spot as a good investment, and systems that don't use fossil fuel, like photovoltaics and solar thermal.

I think investment in becoming part of a community is a good thing too. Frequent the farmer's market, be a part of the place you live in or a place you are going to bug out to. The worst thing would be to end up a refugee in a place you are unfamiliar with.

I like small, walkable towns. Still lots of housing, and you can live cheaply.
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jdumars · Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 8:39 am Post subject: Re: Preparation nearly impossible

This is a very timely thread. It's definitely mirrored my own progression through PO-preparedness. I started with alarm in 2002, bought extremely well-suited land for hunter-gatherer living, had to give up on that because my wife didn't want it, and we had to somehow pay taxes on the land or lose it. Then we moved to a warmer climate (TN) with more even rainfall, cheaper land and less restrictions. We got 34 acres, but it was dependent on selling our old place, which didn't thanks to the RE market. Now, Tennessee is in the second year of record drought. My wife and I spent all the Spring and Summer farming someone else's land, and it was a dismal failure for all sorts of reasons -- including politics with the land owner.

All this to say, that I have gone to extraordinary lengths compared to most people. In fact I am "famous" among the local foodies for having a 90+% local/seasonal diet.

But even with all of that, the conclusion has fallen on me like a barrel of bricks. There's no way to prep, because eventually one of 3 things will happen:
1. You will lose your advantage to either nature, another human being, or your own health.

2. Something you rely on will become unavailable or unsustainable. Think salt, fat, tools, whatever.

3. Circumstances will change to a state you could not have foreseen and your preparations will become either inert or a liability.

Another major issue with prep (unless it's being healthy and adaptable) is that others who haven't prepped, especially friends and family, are going to be begging at your door. They may come from far and wide because they know you have stocks of food, land, and whatnot. Multiply this by any members of your work force, community or whatever. Community is not an advantage unless it's a truly diverse one with almost no specialization. This is almost entirely absent in the populace. Take away access to modern medicine, and you have the recipe for a very dark and rapid descent into the abyss.

I have considered myself a doomer up to this point, but the kind who thinks somehow he is smart enough, capable enough to make it through a crash through preparation. Now, I am a doomer that really feels doomed. I am not going to change the lifestyle aspects of how I live, because it has made me tremendously healthy. I will still preserve food while I have it. But, my days of trying to "prep" are over. I seriously give up.
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jamaal · Coal Joined: Aug 24, 2008 Posts: 10