Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 12:34 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season
The weeks immediately after Katrina and Rita, the crude oil production in the GOM was 30% lower than the period immediately before, roughly 2 mbd lower crude oil production at the highest.
The crude oil never really came back all the way. We are now about 7% lower in crude oil production than we were in 2005, so only about 3/4 of the destruction came back.
In natural gas, the weeks immediately after the storms we saw about a 15% drop in production, but that eventually came back. As of May, we were about 10% higher in production than before the storms.
But basically, our crude oil production was permanently affected.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 12:38 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season
We should also think back to Ivan, where wave action - above and below the surface - cause a great amount of damage. Note this article is from 2005.
The Mars tension-leg platform owned by Shell before Hurricane Katrina, top, and afterward. It is expected to be out of operation for months.
Quote:
At Time of Epic Storms, Oil Industry Thinks Anew
Published: September 15, 2005
Specialists are more worried about the state of the underwater pipeline network. Totaling 33,000 miles, the grid turned out to be the weakest link after Hurricane Ivan, which produced mudslides that snapped pipelines, shifted parts around and caused long delays and repairs before production could be resumed.
So far, there is little information on the state of the pipelines. Oil companies must test the pressure on their platforms before assessing the state of the pipelines. But the fear is that some parts of that network have again been disabled.
Engineers have known about the ravages caused by mudslides at the mouth of the Mississippi Delta since at least 1969. That was the year Shell's South Pass 70 platform was destroyed by mudslides set in motion by Hurricane Camille. The destruction of the platform, which was brand new, shocked the industry and led to the development of structures with foundations as deep as 600 feet, well below the mud line.
But pipelines are a different matter, said Jim Hooper, an experienced geotechnical engineer and senior consultant for Fugro McClelland Marine Geosciences, who compared the seabed in some coastal areas to gelatin stretching at depths of 300 feet.
"Eventually, the waves get big enough and the Jell-O fails," said Mr. Hooper, a pioneer of the mudslide-resistant platforms.
NY Times _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 12:45 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season
BP Thunderhorse has only been online since mid-June of this year, following the damage to it by Dennis three years ago.
The possibility of another hit by a cat-4 or 5 has to be raising the hairs on a few necks in the BP boardroom right now. _________________ "It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 8:01 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season
Quote:
8/26/2008 8:21:00 PM
Threatening Hurricane Gustav Pushes Oil, Gas Prices Up
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--
Oil and gas producer Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSA) said personnel evacuations could start as early as Wednesday.
"Given the current track for Gustav and the expectation that it might enter the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, we are making logistical arrangements to evacuate staff who are not essential to production or drilling operations," Shell said in a statement.
A ConocoPhillips (COP) spokesperson said the Houston energy company was monitoring Gustav's progress.
Stresses caused by the oncoming hurricane were evident in the Gulf Coast market for immediate delivery of crude oil. Several blends of crude strengthened on fears that a shortage could arise if Gustav damages production platforms and pipeline transportation networks.
Dow Jones/Cattle Network _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 2:22 am Post subject: Gustav Cometh
I am kind of surprised nobody has picked up on this one yet, but if you look at the 5 day projected track for Gustav on the NOAA website, its looking like the 6th Named Storm of the season is going to track straight up the center of the Gulf of Mexico, with a DIRECT bead on New Orleans at the moment. Even the early reports out of the weather services are talking about this one as having potential for Cat 5.
The 5 day track has it just south of New Orleans on Sunday. By about Thursday, it should be clear from the Satellite Photos if this one forms up to be a BEHEMOTH like Katrina. What if it DOES? What will the Government do THIS time?
If they have not put schoolbuses on the move NOW toward NO, doing any kind of mass evacuation is about impossible (probably is anyhow). However, will they let people just sit tight this time with a Cat 5 bearing down on NO? If the Sheeple start jumping in their personal cars to get out, how long will it take before the gas resupply to the stations on the route out fails?
Even if all the people get out, what happens if AGAIN the interstate bridge on the I-10 south of Slidell gets washed out? We gonna rebuild that AGAIN? With what money? Are they gonna ship all the Refugees to Houston AGAIN?
If we DON'T try to rebuild New Orleans, just how does that Port function to take the grain from the Midwest and ship it out, and how do we move Oil out of all the refineries in that area up to markets in the US?
I fingered Tax Time next year as the possible Death Blow to the House of Cards. Mother Nature might have other ideas. If Gustav spins up in the Gulf and hits New Orleans, the economic system I think is too fragile to absorb this blow, and politically the will to try to rebuild New Orleans AGAIN will be about gone. Without New Orleans though, a big part of the movement of freight through our country is destroyed.
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 5:54 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season
Master's is thinking that if the track runs through the loop eddy from July then we may have a Katrina-like storm on our hands. I think the current NHC path is just barely east of this eddy so this bears watching.
DP, I did a google search for "shortage gustav gasoline" and the article you posted was the only one that came up. Good catch, I wonder if the rest of the media world will catch on to our precarious inventory levels.
Joined: Jun 18, 2005 Posts: 3985 Location: In a van down by the river
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 10:00 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
accuweather has the storm tracking more towards Houston right now, which is actually a much worse event.
This thread is more of a current event than a environmental concern imho but mine is not to reason why.
This thing looks like it could thread the needle and has warm Caribbean and Gulf waters ahead. The strike cone is now in the heart of oil country, before with the strike at NOLA it could have easily turned towards Alabama and Florida.
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 1:01 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
It threw me off a bit to find this thread on the Environment forum too. But it makes some sense. I think the mods want current events more on purely oil related subjects, where this can go for pages without reference to effects on oil. I was chastised for posting something last year on a tropical storm in the current events forum that didn't make explicit reference to the possible effects on oil.
Meanwhile, oil prices are back down after going briefly over $119. What's up with that?
Joined: Jun 18, 2005 Posts: 3985 Location: In a van down by the river
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 1:18 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
I agree but this storm is already having a clear effect on oil prices.
Oil is all over the place these days because of the general tankage of the economy. Economies all over Europe are slowing down, the stock traders are now betting that this slowdown is going to free up a lot of oil. In the near term I think they are probably right.
I think for this storm to have any real impact on oil it will have to be a real monster. If it doesn't hit Houston, the oil patch or NOLA, and look for the price to come down in a hurry.
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