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Cold War heats up with a vengence
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gmin
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 8:26 am    Post subject: Re: Cold War heats up with a vengence Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

dissident wrote:
If nuclear weapons will be used it will be NATO first that uses them. The current Black Sea NATO task force cannot dislodge Russian forces from South Ossetia and Abhkazia and the associated buffer zones. It is some lame "gunboat diplomacy" as if Russia was a banana republic. Re-arming Saakashvili won't achieve anything either as spectacularly demonstrated by the performance of his NATO-trained army.
Unlike the previous state of affairs where Saakashvili could attack Ossetian towns and villages with mortar bombs and the Ossetians could only fire back with small arms fire, now Sack-of-crap-vili will feel the pain right away.

as an exit strategy for the US from Georgia, maybe it's time for some Georgian opposition groups to show their faces? US can feel so relieved if Saakashvili's "democratically" kicked out by the Georgians.
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Cid_Yama
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 8:40 am    Post subject: Re: Cold War heats up with a vengence Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

From Kremlin: Statement by President of Russia Dmitry Medvedev

My dear fellow countrymen, citizens of Russia!

You are no doubt well aware of the tragedy of South Ossetia. The night-time execution-style bombardment of Tskhinval by the Georgian troops resulted in the deaths of hundreds of our civilians. Among the dead were the Russian peacekeepers, who gave their lives in fulfilling their duty to protect women, children and the elderly.

The Georgian leadership, in violation of the UN Charter and their obligations under international agreements and contrary to the voice of reason, unleashed an armed conflict victimizing innocent civilians. The same fate lay in store for Abkhazia. Obviously, they in Tbilisi hoped for a blitz-krieg that would have confronted the world community with an accomplished fact. The most inhuman way was chosen to achieve the objective – annexing South Ossetia trough the annihilation of a whole people.

That was not the first attempt to do this. In 1991, President Gamsahourdia of Georgia, having proclaimed the motto "Georgia for Georgians" – just think about it! – ordered attacks on the cities of Sukhum and Tskhinval. The result then was thousands of killed people, dozens of thousands of refugees and devastated villages. And it was Russia who at that time put an end to the eradication of the Abkhaz and Ossetian peoples. Our country came forward as a mediator and peacekeeper insisting on a political settlement. In doing so we were invariably guided by the recognition of Georgia’s territorial integrity.

The Georgian leadership chose another way. Disrupting the negotiating process, ignoring the agreements achieved, committing political and military provocations, attacking the peacekeepers – all these actions grossly violated the regime established in conflict zones with the support of the United Nations and OSCE.

Russia continually displayed calm and patience. We repeatedly called for returning to the negotiating table and did not deviate from this position of ours even after the unilateral proclamation of Kosovo’s independence. However our persistent proposals to the Georgian side to conclude agreements with Abkhazia and South Ossetia on the non-use of force remained unanswered. Regrettably, they were ignored also by NATO and even at the United Nations.

It stands quite clear now: a peaceful resolution of the conflict was not part of Tbilisi’s plan. The Georgian leadership was methodically preparing for war, while the political and material support provided by their foreign guardians only served to reinforce the perception of their own impunity.

Tbilisi made its choice during the night of August 8, 2008. Saakashvili opted for genocide to accomplish his political objectives. By doing so he himself dashed all the hopes for the peaceful coexistence of Ossetians, Abkhazians and Georgians in a single state. The peoples of South Ossetia and Abkhazia have several times spoken out at referendums in favor of independence for their republics. It is our understanding that after what has happened in Tskhinval and what has been planned for Abkhazia they have the right to decide their destiny by themselves.

The Presidents of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, based on the results of the referendums conducted and on the decisions taken by the Parliaments of the two republics, appealed to Russia to recognize the state sovereignty of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The Federation Council and the State Duma voted in support of those appeals.

A decision needs to be taken based on the situation on the ground. Considering the freely expressed will of the Ossetian and Abkhaz peoples and being guided by the provisions of the UN Charter, the 1970 Declaration on the Principles of International Law Governing Friendly Relations Between States, the CSCE Helsinki Final Act of 1975 and other fundamental international instruments, I signed Decrees on the recognition by the Russian Federation of South Ossetia’s and Abkhazia’s independence.

Russia calls on other states to follow its example. This is not an easy choice to make, but it represents the only possibility to save human lives.
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Cid_Yama
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 8:55 am    Post subject: Re: Cold War heats up with a vengence Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

U.S. warship due to arrive in Russian controlled Georgian port of Poti

Defying Russia , an American warship that brought humanitarian aid to Georgia was expected to arrive Wednesday in this nervous Black Sea port that's being watched over by Russian soldiers, Georgian officials said.

The move would put U.S. military assets within close range of Russian forces for the first time since the Georgian conflict began, potentially setting up a confrontation with Moscow, the dominant naval power in the Black Sea.

link

The delivery of relief supplies to Georgia by U.S. warships does not make the situation more stable, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Tuesday.

"This raises some questions because normally battleships do not deliver aid and battleship diplomacy, or battleship humanitarian diplomacy, does not make the situation more stable," Lavrov told a conference call with reporters.

link

More like battleship 'in-your-face' diplomacy. Hawks are obviously in control in Washington, and frothing at the mouth for a confrontation with Russia. As Rip Torn's chararacter said about the cold war in Canadian Bacon, "What was the point? We didn't even get to kill any of them."
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allenwrench
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 9:18 am    Post subject: Re: Cold War heats up with a vengence Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

If reason were king, there wouldn't be wars in the first place. Once they've started, what little reason is left quickly abdicates.

YES!
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Cid_Yama
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 9:22 am    Post subject: Re: Cold War heats up with a vengence Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Russia hits at NATO as Georgia row worsens

RUSSIA has threatened to block NATO supply routes into Afghanistan as its power play with the West over Georgia escalates.

With supply routes through Pakistan increasingly under militant attack, a Russia-NATO deal struck in April to pass through Russia and Central Asia was supposed to provide an alternative supply line.

But Zamir Kabulov, the Russian ambassador to Afghanistan, told The Times yesterday he believed the deal was no longer valid because Russia suspended military co-operation with NATO last week over its support for Georgia.

Mr Kabulov also suggested the stand-off over Georgia could lead Russia to review deals allowing NATO members to use Russian airspace and to keep bases in the former Soviet Central Asian states of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

The threats came as a vote by Russia's Parliament to recognise two breakaway Georgian regions as independent nations triggered an outbreak of diplomatic roulette, with Washington to review its "entire relationship" with Moscow.

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 9:28 am    Post subject: Re: Cold War heats up with a vengence Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Ukraine must support Moscow's move – Yanukovych

Leader of the Party of Regions Victor Yanukovych believes Ukraine should recognize the independence of Georgian rebel states of Southern Ossetia and Abkhazia.

The press service of the Party of Regions disclosed this to UNIAN citing V.Yanukovych as saying.

“Recognition of the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by the Russian Federation is a logical result of the process that was started by the western countries with their recognition of the independence of Kosovo. In February of this year, I publicly expressed my concern that this step of West would entail a chain reaction. And we warned the world about the danger of double standards in situations similar to recognition of Kosovo independence”, said V.Yanukovych.

According to his opinion, the proclamation of independence of Kosovo without consent of Serbia practically destroyed the order established in the sphere of inviolability of state borders after the WWII. “I believe Ukraine should accept the will of peoples of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and recognize their independence”, said the leader of the Party of Regions. link
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allenwrench
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 9:31 am    Post subject: Re: Cold War heats up with a vengence Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

EnergyUnlimited wrote:
Cid_Yama wrote:
It really does look like Georgia is trying to stage some event to justify US action. Is Bush really that stupid that he would actually order US assets to fire on Russian troops in Georgia? That's just insane.
Somehow I begin to *wish* him to proceed with that. Then something very interesting will begin to go on. Probably current NATO forces on Black Sea would be wiped out within less than an hour. Then what? I only wonder when tactical nukes would be used first?

The foundation of war...passions and boredom. People get tired of peace and have to remember why they like it. so they dip into the war chest to get some action.

War stinks. But humans being what they are they like to watch war on TV...don't they. As long as they are not in the war it is fun, in some sort of twisted way to spectate. And this goes for spectating a war of ants or a war of humans.
As Thoreau wrote: "I took up the chip on which three ants were struggling, carried it into my house, and placed it under a tumbler on my windowsill, in order to see the issue. I saw, under magnification, that though assiduously gnawing at the fore leg of the enemy, having severed his remaining feeler, this red ants own breast was all torn away, exposing what vitals he had there to the jaws of the black warrior, whose breastplate was apparently too thick to pierce, and the dark carbuncles of the sufferer eyes shone with the ferocity such as war could only excite."

War does not determine who is right - war determines who is left


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 9:32 am    Post subject: Re: Cold War heats up with a vengence Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Cid_Yama wrote:
U.S. warship due to arrive in Russian controlled Georgian port of Poti

Do you really think the US will actually go through with this? After the start of this war, Russia has confiscated some equipment left by US military advisors in the Poti area.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 9:50 am    Post subject: Re: Cold War heats up with a vengence Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

South Ossetia said to ask Russia to build military base
The leader of South Ossetia said on Tuesday he would ask Moscow to set up a military base on his territory, Interfax news agency reported.

"I will also propose to Russia that it deploys a Russian military base on the territory of South Ossetia," Interfax quoted Eduard Kokoity as saying. link
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Cid_Yama
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 9:57 am    Post subject: Re: Cold War heats up with a vengence Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Russia's Medvedev vows to protect South Ossetia, Abkhazia
Russia will protect Abkhazia and South Ossetia from possible attack, but is not going to intervene in other conflicts in the former Soviet Union, President Dmitry Medvedev said on Tuesday.

"Under the decree I have signed, our country will naturally help ensure the security of these two states and if they are attacked, we will offer them appropriate help," he told CNN.

"As far as involvement in other conflicts is concerned, we naturally are not going to do this," he added. "But Russia is a state which has to ensure its interests along the whole length of its border, this is absolutely clear." link
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 10:04 am    Post subject: Re: Cold War heats up with a vengence Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

NATO Navy has extraordinary activity in Black Sea-Gen Staff
The Russian army’s General Staff is “bewildered” by the extraordinary activity of the NATO Naval forces in the north-eastern sector of the Black Sea, Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Colonel-General Anatoly Nogovitsyn said at a press conference on Tuesday. According to him, there are currently nine warships of NATO countries in the region.

“And another frigate of the US Navy entered the Bosporus yesterday at 23:30,” the official added. Nogovitsyn forecasted that “the arrival of eight more NATO ships is expected in the area shortly.” link

NATO helps Georgia restore air defenses, ups Black Sea presence
NATO is helping to restore Georgia's air defenses and has deployed 10 warships in the Black Sea, with another eight expected soon, the deputy chief of the Russian General Staff said Tuesday.

"Measures are being taken with assistance from NATO experts to create facilities for airspace control and to restore airfields," Col. Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn said.

A Russian military intelligence source said Monday the NATO warships carried over 100 Tomahawk cruise missiles and Harpoon anti-ship missiles between them.

The Russian Black Sea Fleet continues providing security in the waters of the Black Sea near the shore of Abkhazia," he said, adding that the Russian military had seized maps detailing Georgian plans for a 24-hour attack on its separatist region. link
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 10:40 am    Post subject: Re: Cold War heats up with a vengence Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Has US Crippled NATO?

Winning the media spin might just be the worst outcome for the West as it will undoubtedly fan the flames of national grievance in Russia even more. The facts are clear enough. Georgian President Saakashvili unleashed a brutal, 12-hour assault with hundreds of rockets and artillery shells on the largely defenceless South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali, destroying apartment blocks, hospitals and other civilian infrastructure. It was utterly unnecessary destruction for the operation's stated purpose of occupying the territory.

Despite U.S. denials, it is inconceivable that the Bush administration did not know and approve of the invasion plans. The U.S. and Israel have hundreds of military advisors embedded at virtually every level of the Georgian army.

Georgia and the encirclement of Russia

Georgia was simply playing its assigned role as an outpost of U.S. neo-con ambitions to encircle Russia with free-market client states and isolate it. The media portrays Saakashvili as a democrat. There is no reference to his increasingly authoritarian rule -- the brutal put-down of peaceful demonstrations last November, the widely reported abuse of state resources, controls on the media, the arrest of opposition activists, and the suppression of civil liberties. Some democrat. There is also no reference to the fact that Saakashvili came to power in 2003 largely thanks to millions of dollars from the American Soros foundations poured into organizations that attacked former president Eduard Shevardnadze and promoted the pro-American Mr. Saakashvili for president.

For years, the U.S. could afford to dismiss Russian declarations that such encirclement was a threat to its national interests and would be resisted. Russia was weak. But the U.S. occupation of Iraq, instead of unleashing its huge oil supplies, and being a bonanza for American oil companies, has severely weakened the U.S. and contributed to the huge increase in oil prices -- giving back to the Russian state the financial power it had lost. The Bush administration, still addled by ideology, apparently didn't notice and continued to dismiss Russia as if it were still a bankrupt state.

The Georgian attack was either a wag-the-dog strategy to help the Republicans win the White House, or one of the most spectacularly incompetent applications of foreign policy in U.S. history. In either case, the U.S. miscalculated not only Russia's response, but more importantly, the entire geo-political balance of power in the region. Someone, such as the usually astute Israelis, should have told the U.S. that in this confrontation, Russia holds virtually all the cards. link
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EnergyUnlimited
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 10:59 am    Post subject: Re: Cold War heats up with a vengence Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Cid_Yama wrote:
More like battleship 'in-your-face' diplomacy. Hawks are obviously in control in Washington, and frothing at the mouth for a confrontation with Russia. As Rip Torn's chararacter said about the cold war in Canadian Bacon, "What was the point? We didn't even get to kill any of them."

I don't know, what the future development might be, but I noted that "lets them have it" option is one of very few left.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 11:09 am    Post subject: Re: Cold War heats up with a vengence Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

NATO ships in Black Sea not there for humanitarian reasons

Russia's top military brass said on Tuesday it doubted that NATO ships were delivering only humanitarian aid to Georgia and said Moscow was worried about a build up of alliance warships in the Black Sea.

Moscow, already angry at NATO expansion close to its borders, has been dismayed by the West's support for Georgia after Tbilisi tried to retake a pro-Russian breakaway region, sparking a massive Russian counter-attack.

The United States said that two warships would dock at the Georgian port of Poti on Wednesday to deliver humanitarian aid.

These eight (ships) are not there with a humanitarian cargo but with a different objective," he said. "It is very hard to believe that all these previous trips were used for humanitarian help as was stated."

Nogovitsyn said claims to the contrary were lies and questioned why warships were being used to deliver aid such as nappies that he said could be bought in any Georgian market.

Russian military officials say that a build up of NATO ships in the Black Sea, traditionally controlled by Russia, has increased chances of the conflict in Georgia escalating into a standoff with NATO.

Nogovitsyn also hinted at rich intelligence pickings for Russian security services from a convoy of Hummer vehicles that were seized in Georgia.

"We found out that it was not by chance that the Pentagon was so worried about the fate of its Hummers," he said. "We found a lot of very interesting things in these Hummers."

link

Is WWIII finally here, and only because Bush was embarrassed and won't let it go? Are we all going to die a horrible death just because Bush can't bear Russia winning this minor conflict?
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EnergyUnlimited
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 11:21 am    Post subject: Re: Cold War heats up with a vengence Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Nickel wrote:
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
Using of few weapons of particular kind does not imply that all similar weapons must be used.
No, not necessarily, but I can't see any practical way around it. WWII started off with Germany and Britain targetting each other's military installations, but it only took a few stray bombs to turn the whole thing into a grudge match against civilian populations in the cities. Arguably, that's the main reason the British won the Battle of Britain: in a fit of pique, Goering lost sight of the goal, concentrated his attacks on the cities, and laid off on attacking the air strips.

Nickel, Please check some facts before writing silly-willy. WWII started with German invasion of Poland on 1st September 1939 followed by Russian invasion of Poland 2 weeks later. Britain declared war on Germany as per treaty with Poland, but no military action against Germany was taken until Germany actually attacked Britain itself about a year later.

Nevertheless, you are Canadian, so you are forgiven. Smile
Quote:
You're expecting cool, deliberate reason in what will be the greatest crisis ever faced by humanity: the use of nuclear weapons in a war where both sides have them. You're expecting far too much. If reason were king, there wouldn't be wars in the first place. Once they've started, what little reason is left quickly abdicates.

You may note that despite of atrocities of WW II Britain did not resort to use of Anthrax against German cities and also Germany did not deploy chemical weapons on the battlefield.
Quote:
What do you suppose is going to happen if one of those "tactical" nukes targets a military asset that's just a little too close to a nice, peaceful, innocent population centre?

Comparable target would be nuked by adversary (victim of initial attack) as a warning about what might happen if situation escalate further.
I cannot exclude total nuclear annihilation of modern world as an outcome but I think that our PTB would unleash such scenario with great reluctance, and only if there is no other acceptable way forward.
Some concern here is that necessity of population reduction as per considerations of ecological science (overshoot etc) may be a driving force resulting in all out atomic war.

"Face saving" issues are another great threat here.
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