Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 8:35 am Post subject: Re: Peak Investments
I would just like to interject that this thread used to
be named Depletion Economics and is now called
just Economics. Hot diggity dawg, this can only mean
that Mr. Bill and Aaron are making money and are no
longer depleting it. Get these two together and it's
no wonder you end up with a financial 800 pound
Mr. Billilla. (I think it is the little monkey from Mr. Bill's
hat after careful training and digital enhancement by
Aaron.)
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 10:20 am Post subject: Re: Peak Investments
You fellas have bigger numbers then I do. I dont have the money to make currency trading even remotely worthwhile. Seems to me you need to be playing with hundreds of thousands if not millions to see any meaningful gains no? _________________ "Battle not with monsters, lest ye become a monster, and if you gaze into the
Abyss, the Abyss gazes also into you."
Ammo at a gunfight is like bubblegum in grade school: If you havent brought enough for everyone, you're in trouble
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 1:34 am Post subject: Re: Peak Investments
No, 90% of the benefit comes from doing the analysis and trying to understand where we are, how we got here, and where we are going. Its the mental process of investing. The P&L is just a scorecard. It is more important not to make mistakes that lose money than it is to make money. I would sooner take an opportunity cost over a real loss to my capital anytime! ; - )) _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Joined: Aug 24, 2005 Posts: 442 Location: Costa Geriatrica, Spain
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 1:44 am Post subject: Re: Peak Investments
Aaron wrote:
Quote:
It's obviously impossible for people to earn hundreds of billions of dollars in profit, doing nothing, and increasing 36% per year.
It is a $3 trillion market.
Surely this has to be a zero sum game. There's no added value involved. For every profitable currency trade there has to be a counterparty on the other side who loses out to the same ammount. It's not creating wealth, just redistributing it.
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 2:05 am Post subject: Re: Peak Investments
Foreign exchange markets are a zero sum game, but that does not mean they do not add value.
Exporters and importers both need to exchange foreign currency to enable trade. They benefit from efficient markets where the bid-offer spread is narrow, and there is competition between buyers and sellers.
Foreign investors use the foreign exchange market to buy fixed income and equity in foreign currency, so that they can shift capital from where there is a surplus to where there is a deficit. They benefit from competitive foreign exchange markets.
Large, open, transparent foreign exchange market are an efficient means for price discovery. That pricing mechanism sends governments and central banks important information about the health of their economy, and how foreign investors view the risk of investing in their country. Floating exchange rates also keep governments honest as investors can vote with their feet.
It may be a zero sum game on an individual, trade by trade basis, but it has tremendous benefits beyond that. And individual speculators play an important role in that price discovery. _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
You fellas have bigger numbers then I do. I dont have the money to make currency trading even remotely worthwhile. Seems to me you need to be playing with hundreds of thousands if not millions to see any meaningful gains no?
The margin rates are much higher in forex than the standard market. Margins of 100-1 are common...
Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 9:39 am Post subject: Re: Peak Investments
Does anyone know where to find stats or a good article on railroad investment? I could google it all day long but would like to know if anyone has read something worthwhile. It doesn't even have to be big rail- maybe a startup of smaller light rail business doing well as of late as cities start planning for passenger rail and the bidding starts on these projects.
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 12:28 am Post subject: Re: Peak Investments
criticalmass wrote:
Does anyone know where to find stats or a good article on railroad investment? I could google it all day long but would like to know if anyone has read something worthwhile. It doesn't even have to be big rail- maybe a startup of smaller light rail business doing well as of late as cities start planning for passenger rail and the bidding starts on these projects.
One regular poster works for a railroad and has posted recent traffic figures. I am at a loss at the moment to remember who it was? Sorry.
The ongoing sell-off in the broad market is starting to make railway stocks look more attractive again. At some point there will be a trade-off between a weak general market due to a near recession and still relatively high energy prices. I would think that at that point it would be very interesting to go long railway stocks for the long-term. It should be one of the first sectors to recover after the crash and in terms of fuel efficiency is the place to invest. Cheers.
UPDATE: obviously I do not agree with this analyst's view on trucking, but...
Quote:
John Barnes, an analyst at BB&T Capital Markets in Richmond, Virginia, comments on his outlook for U.S. transportation stocks. Barnes, whose top pick is Union Pacific Corp., spoke in an interview.
``I think the results, either the trucking companies, the railroads, thus far, show some stabilization in the market'' with both freight volume and pricing ``beginning to stabilize.''
``It's certainly good for the transportation companies, and it's beginning to signal, maybe, we have hit a bottom in terms of the economy, and things should start to get better from here.''
``Our thought is, maybe the truckers are starting to get a little bit overbought'' though ``I would still be recommending buying the railroads.''
source: July 25 (Bloomberg) _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 6:21 am Post subject: Re: Peak Investments
``All through history, the world has borrowed and borrowed until it realized that it couldn't repay it,'' he says. ``There's nothing different from what we are doing now.''
Quote:
Taylor says his models are telling him to continue to bet against the dollar. He predicts the dollar might lose about 40 percent of its value in the next three years against the Federal Reserve's trade-weighted currency index, which measures trade with 38 countries including Canada, China, Mexico and members of the European Union.
The prediction is partly based on his charts of the U.S. real estate cycle, which he says has a major impact on the dollar and will continue to point south for the next couple of years, dragging down the currency with it. He also says the price of a barrel of crude oil might reach $250 in 2011, further eroding the strength of the U.S. economy and the dollar.
Lever for Government
``When markets look ugly, currencies are the one lever that the government has that it can use to jerk its economy around without pissing off its own citizens,'' Taylor says. ``And the U.S. needs to do a lot of maneuvering.'' The government will try to keep the dollar weak, he says, to fuel growth in exports and deflate the value of its debt.
The dollar's fluctuations are especially welcome, Taylor says, because they create more opportunities for trades among the majors, a market that's been slowing in the past few years. Annual returns of Taylor's $4.1 billion Developed Markets Currency program, which was confined to the majors until June, averaged 5.1 percent annually since 2000 net of fees, down from an average of 14.8 percent a year in the 1990s. In July, Taylor added emerging market currencies like the Polish zloty and the Mexican peso to the mix.
source: Taylor on Currencies _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 12:26 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Investments
I guess I left "frieght rail" out of my line of thinking, but it realistically should be just as attractive as light passenger rail!
I'll have to watch some of the larger stocks on the ticker and find out who's "in bed" with the bigger rail players. Companies that build locomotives and electric lightrail components should be just as profitable if they're not overly divers (like GE.)
Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 2:33 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Investments
criticalmass wrote:
I guess I left "frieght rail" out of my line of thinking, but it realistically should be just as attractive as light passenger rail!
I'll have to watch some of the larger stocks on the ticker and find out who's "in bed" with the bigger rail players. Companies that build locomotives and electric lightrail components should be just as profitable if they're not overly divers (like GE.)
I was following the railroads earlier this year before they got overbought.
If you are looking to play parts suppliers, WAB is publicly traded.
(Most of what would be the best railroad plays are private companies.)
Mr Bill is correct that the Canadian Rails were a good play earlier this year. Like I said, I stopped following a couple months ago.
Another good one to research would be CSX.
With smaller rail plays, be careful of their broader business. Many are also involved in trucking, not a good industry with fuel prices as they are.
Other Rail plays (as always, research first), UNP, GWR, BNI, KSU, NSC. _________________ In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act. - George Orwell
It riles them to believe that you perceive the webs they weave. - Moody Blues
Posted: Sat Sep 27, 2008 5:24 am Post subject: Re: Peak Investments
Since the global stock market is under crisis, It is not a bad idea to invest in Currency but the only problem I found with that investment is that It require huge investment for trading.
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