Oil's energy contribution has declined by about 12% since 1999. The world's economies have also declined by about 12%. (Using conventional metrics, which are time delayed determinations, this will only be seen in hind sight). The massive destruction of asset values now occurring testifies to it happening.
Peak is well behind us, world economies have peaked and will continue to decline.
"I just got an email from a friend of a friend with some graphics of SSTs and hurricane track. I don't have time to upload the graphics right now but here are the comments from 'Hurricane Jim', a "freelance correspondent who has been covering wars and disasters for over 15yrs, from the Balkans to Iraq. He has been chasing and covering major hurricanes since 2003." (i.e. I can't attest to his expertise but he clearly knows more than me)"
Quote:
The reason this is perhaps as bad as it gets is two fold.
A. NOLA and the Gulf Coast cannot handle a storm like this.
B. A storm of this intensity would damage the power grid in ways we haven't seen for a very long time. Catastrophic is the word that comes to mind.
What that means is that surface winds (and the hundreds of tornadoes this thing will throw down) are of such intensity that it will shred above ground power distribution systems. Katrina was bad enough at a solid CAT 1. This is far worse.
In the event that that happens, it will have national implications, namely the power supplies for pipeline Pumping Stations to the east for fuel. As I said in my dispatch yesterday, we came real close here on the mid-Atlantic to major fuel shortages after Katrina because of that. IF this occurs as these models are suggesting, and no one has made provisions for these pumping stations to have their own on-site power supplies, than we are in real trouble.
Bottom line; IF these models pan out, the grid down there is going to suffer damage akin to a wartime incident. It will take months to fix it. You may remember that Katrina knocked out power as far away as Canada and it took weeks to restore power to areas along the Gulf Coast.
This could prove to be an entirely different animal.
ALCON (and that means everyone east of the MS, especially); pay VERY close attention to this storm. Just because it hits the Gulf Coast does not mean that it's effects will not be felt in VA, MD, DC,GA, etc. TN and points north need to be heads up as well.
PRAY for wind sheer and steering currents that carry this thing either into the mountains behind Cancun or east of the loop current, preferably with a re-curve into a thin zone on the FL panhandle.
_________________ "The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein
Joined: Apr 13, 2005 Posts: 3273 Location: St.Louis, Mo
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 2:33 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
Katrina was bad enough at a solid CAT 1
======================================
A CAT 1 ? Katrina was a CAT 5 in the GOM and hit land as a strong CAT 3. It sucked in some dry air at the last minute , otherwise it would have been worse.
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 2:54 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
Armageddon wrote:
A CAT 1 ? Katrina was a CAT 5 in the GOM and hit land as a strong CAT 3. It sucked in some dry air at the last minute , otherwise it would have been worse.
I think he means well into land. There's not a lot of electrical infrastructure in the water or right on the shore.
Westexas pointed out (in the same thread) that there's precedent for it. The Galveston hurricane created hurricane force winds and killed people as far north as Chicago and even Canada. Not saying that they expect that from Gustav, but I think what he means is he expects it to hold it strength inland more than Katrina did. _________________ "The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein
Joined: Apr 27, 2007 Posts: 4351 Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 3:35 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
Armageddon wrote:
I am pretty sure Katrina hit land as a CAT 3.
It did.
And the black out of the North East several years ago DID NOT black out 50 million people rather blacked out parts of a region that was populated by 50 million people.
We are not very curious animals. _________________ "There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
You can find PDF and Word docs there about Katrina for the official version of what happened. _________________ "Every junkie's like a setting sun..." - Neil Young
Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 3361 Location: Resiliency Farm
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 3:49 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
I assume that the models looking at invest 95 are split in how it will react to the high pressure system around Florida (I heard a guy on the weather channel talk about it last night). If the high turns it to the north and east, we forget about it. If it turns it to the west then we have another Florida storm and maybe another GOM storm.
_________________ “It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him.”
J.R.R. Tolkien
"The time has come for men to act like men; and for women, well, to act a lot more like men."
-Ma Cur
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 4:17 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
dohboi wrote:
It threw me off a bit to find this thread on the Environment forum too. But it makes some sense.
Sorry about changing the forum, I didn't find the thread initially because Hurricanes seem to me to be more a consequence of environmental issues than a "current event". Anyhow, when the threads got merged, I guess it ended up in Environment.
Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 3361 Location: Resiliency Farm
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 4:21 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
ReverseEngineer wrote:
dohboi wrote:
It threw me off a bit to find this thread on the Environment forum too. But it makes some sense.
Sorry about changing the forum, I didn't find the thread initially because Hurricanes seem to me to be more a consequence of environmental issues than a "current event". Anyhow, when the threads got merged, I guess it ended up in Environment.
Reverse Engineer
That would be my fault. The way things work when you merge, and the things I should check afterwards are still making themselves clear to me.
------------
edit: It does seem more like a Current Events story so I moved it back where it belongs... apologies for any ensuing confusion.
cur _________________ “It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him.”
J.R.R. Tolkien
"The time has come for men to act like men; and for women, well, to act a lot more like men."
-Ma Cur
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 5:24 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
Quote:
Louisiana declares emergency in advance of Gustav: report
By Wallace Witkowski
Last update: 6:59 p.m. EDT Aug. 27, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Louisiana is declaring a state of emergency in advance and activating the National Guard in preparation for Tropical Storm Gustav, according to the Associated Press Wednesday. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal gave the order for the preparations, the AP said. While it's too early to chart the storm's course, speculators say the storm could reach the Gulf Coast as a Category 3 hurricane by Labor Day weekend.
Oil, Natural Gas Evacuations Start as Gustav Advances (Update3)
By Aaron Clark and Margot Habiby
Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. oil and natural-gas companies have begun evacuating thousands of offshore workers in the Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Gustav, which may become the costliest hurricane since Katrina, heads toward the region.
``We could see 50 percent of Gulf of Mexico oil and gas production shut in,'' said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston.
Royal Dutch Shell Plc said it will evacuate about 300 non- essential workers today from its offshore operations. The evacuation will have no immediate impact on production, Shell said in an announcement on its Web site.
``Several thousand'' of the almost 20,000 workers on offshore platforms, about one-quarter of whom are needed to maintain production, will be evacuated today, Ted Falgout, director of Port Fourchon in Louisiana, said in an interview. The port is a staging area for offshore workers.
Total may shut in production on Sat. due to storm
08.27.08, 3:14 PM ET
NEW YORK, Aug 27 (Reuters) - French oil major Total SA may shut in oil and gas production on Saturday ahead of Tropical Storm Gustav, a company spokesman said on Wednesday.
'We're in our alert phase, we have plans to begin moving non-essential personnel off the platforms on Friday and potentially shutting in and evacuating employees on Saturday, but are still at least 24 hours away from making any hard decisions,' said Total spokesman Bob Hughes.
Joined: Aug 23, 2004 Posts: 574 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 5:46 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
This thread has become unstuck? Right when it was getting interesting too! _________________ Congress has found themselves in a bear trap. They will chew off three legs, and still be caught in it...
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