Oil's energy contribution has declined by about 12% since 1999. The world's economies have also declined by about 12%. (Using conventional metrics, which are time delayed determinations, this will only be seen in hind sight). The massive destruction of asset values now occurring testifies to it happening.
Peak is well behind us, world economies have peaked and will continue to decline.
Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 12:14 pm Post subject: Re: Streetcars - the true end of suburbia begins
mos6507 wrote:
cube wrote:
Just sit back, relax, let the price of fuel go wildly expensive and the "free-market" will organize the rest.
What positive things do you think the free market is going to do for us?
Current "free market" thinking has buggered up what was once a very good railway system in the UK. Our railways were privateley owned untill nationalised in 1948. Long story, but since privatisation in early 1990's they are being squeezed for profit. Some parts good (bits that make money), some parts awfull, most just about OK (now) but service declining.
USA is different, vast areas & long distances, BUT your privateley owned railroads made money in the past. Cars & planes killed them. (passenger traffic) Now cars & planes being killed, so Railroads will make a big comeback IMHO. You have the answer - Google Pacific Electric, Ohio Interurban.
What worked then will work now, and in the future, IF, and only IF TPTB & the general public show interest. There's a hell of a difference between 'old' capitalism and the current get rich quick. I'm allright jack, sod the future brigade in control everywhere these days. THAT IS THE STUMBLING BLOCK
By the way, the Swiss railway system / article is ideal for small high density countries / areas, most Europe & probably densely populated USA - (East & west coasts).
Gasmon _________________ Been there, Done that, Bought the tee-shirt
Joined: Jul 02, 2008 Posts: 595 Location: Canterbury, UK
Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 4:34 pm Post subject: Re: Streetcars - the true end of suburbia begins
mos6507 wrote:
cube wrote:
Just sit back, relax, let the price of fuel go wildly expensive and the "free-market" will organize the rest.
What positive things do you think the free market is going to do for us?
I'm wondering if it could bring the trains back into scope?
Nobody likes a monopoly, and inconvenience isn't something we've been brought up to tolerate in past generations. I know I haven't. When I pick the train and the subway to work, my friends laugh at me. But I save money, because our local train system is definitely cheaper than driving. So, a couple of familiar faces have been popping up every so often at the train station. Old laughers came around with a tree-hugger speech which I can't get enough of, since I love a good laugh in the morning.
A bit of consumer behaviour: people who ride the train at the end of the month and resort to using their car from day 1 to day 20 are just strapped for money. You get a lot of these in Portugal, these days. Around here, real-estate is more valued for being close to public transportation (especially rail, like train or subway) than by having 2 parking spaces up until a certain social-economic level, after which a couple of parking places are more highly valued. The people which can weather the price storm keep on driving, the rest will grumpily take the public transportation.
Movement is necessary; economic efficiency requires usage of energy. The most efficient ways of spending (expensive) energy will survive, the rest will either perish or serve niches - rich people. That's the fun in the free market - it will select the most efficient alternatives.
Of course, the free market is a rudimentary mechanism, even if it works well enough. The problem is that it can only react. Sometimes, you need to act beforehand; an investment in the most efficient ways of moving people and stuff around, before PO, would require planing. I propose we look into not only energy efficiency, but the ultimate cost of producing an energy unit in a format that can be used by that vehicle. PO does not mean there won't be oil; it means oil derivatives will be expensive. So, even in the case that a train uses more BTUs to haul a certain number of people and cargo, the fact that a BTU in the form of electricity can be produced cheaply than a BTU in diesel/biodiesel form can turn the train into a more efficient system, can't it?
Places like Moreno Valley retain two enormous advantages over traditional cities. They have lots of cheap, available land and a pool of workers keen to avoid the ever-lengthening commute to Los Angeles and Orange County. When it comes to attracting businesses, these two factors outweigh high petrol prices. The city of Ontario, which contains the Inland Empire’s main airport, already has more than two jobs for each home. Greg Devereaux, the city’s manager, reckons it will eventually have more than three.
Bill Batey, Moreno Valley’s mayor, is frank about the city’s present problems. When asked about its future, though, he brightens. Pointing to a large aerial photograph on the wall, he outlines plans for a new warehouse, a cluster of medical offices and a lot more houses. There is plenty of empty space in the photograph; indeed, there is a huge expanse of bare earth directly across the street from city hall. The frontier is not closed yet.
Please note that, despite the "fight back" part I chose to quote, the rest of the text is gloomier. And note the discussion about returning to the cities and even increasing usage of the "skeletal train network" _________________ Environmental News and Clippings:
http://www.google.co.uk/reader/shared/10279555364898696533
Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 7:36 pm Post subject: Re: Streetcars - the true end of suburbia begins
cube wrote:
I personally distrust city "planners". I don't think they care about doing a good job. They just want to spend my tax dollars on unnecessary projects so they can get "kickbacks" by handing out lucrative contracts to their friends.
Cube, have you ever seen suburban Detroit, say between 8 mile and 15 mile roads to the north? Its just a hodge podge. You can drive along most of the arterial roads there and see this type of succession of businesses and the like:
Car body repair shop - Furniture store - Church - Bowling alley - Tool and Die shop - Bar - Factory with completely busted up paving in the parking lot (now likely closed). Oh yeah, and interspersed all along are fast food places.
No consistent landscaping or sign setbacks, etc. Really lousy to walk from place to place, as some industrial businesses have such wide frontages. Its a really tacky place. Sorry for you folks from Detroit out there, but many people agree with me.
So Cube, maybe you are lucky and live in a place which has had some planning forethought applied, by whatever sector of society. Be glad you have.
Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 10:21 pm Post subject: Re: Streetcars - the true end of suburbia begins
To: Denny *looks at location*
It's okay you don't have to apologize for talking bad about Detroit.
I can assure you ---> you are NOT offending any Americans here.
Every nation has that 1 special city that can be considered its "golden child." In America that would be San Francisco.
It's certainly NOT the biggest or most economically important city, but there's a saying in America, "I left my heart in San Francisco."
As for Detroit.....well there's pretty much a universal agreement amongst Americans it's NOT something we're proud of. _________________ joeltrout Oct-2008: Dow 13,000 in three years
Posted: Tue Aug 26, 2008 11:32 pm Post subject: Re: Streetcars - the true end of suburbia begins
mos6507 wrote:
cube wrote:
Just sit back, relax, let the price of fuel go wildly expensive and the "free-market" will organize the rest.
What positive things do you think the free market is going to do for us?
Is your question truly *sincere*?
The last time I was having a discussion, you certainly didn't hesitate to falsely accuse me and distort my position.
Perhaps I should turn the question around and ask, why do you think "city planning" (in particular transportation) will help us....if that is your position? _________________ joeltrout Oct-2008: Dow 13,000 in three years
Joined: Jul 02, 2008 Posts: 595 Location: Canterbury, UK
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 2:44 am Post subject: Re: Streetcars - the true end of suburbia begins
cube wrote:
(...) why do you think "city planning" (in particular transportation) will help us....if that is your position?
A bit of planning will go a long way into allowing for subways and trains to be installed. And roads, as well. I don't think there's anything wrong with providing a plan for transportation, water distribution, sewage, electricity distribution, communications infrastructure - the lot. I agree that having it planned somewhere is the best way to ensure there will be shortages in case of exponential growth. I also believe that has a potential advantage, since it curbs unchecked, exponential growth - which got us into this mess in the first place. _________________ Environmental News and Clippings:
http://www.google.co.uk/reader/shared/10279555364898696533
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 7:17 pm Post subject: Re: The true end of suburbia begins
cube wrote:
mos6507 wrote:
If enough people wantcan afford to stay in the burbs, there will be attempts to make it more sustainable.
There, fixed that for you. Haven't you seen the movie "End of Suburbia"?
The most significant line in that movie was PEOPLE LIKE SUBURBIA.
Of course people "want" to stay in suburbia. Who doesn't "want" a big house and MORE MORE MORE!!!
Haven't we been through this already mos6507? You don't get what you want in life by wishing upon a star! What society "wants" isn't going to add up to a pile of beans.It's what people can afford that will ultimately matter.
Suburbs are more affordable than close-in neighborhoods. The taxes are lower too. A house in the burbs is often 25-50% the cost of a similar sized house in the city. It might be newer and more energy-efficient.
The difference in price might amount to several hundred thousand dollars. That will easily buy a durable, fuel-efficient car and a lot of fuel, maybe 20 to 30 years worth at $15 per gallon, assuming 40 mpg and 10,000 miles of commuting per year. Of course, since jobs have followed people out to the suburbs, many suburbanites don't need to drive that much anyway.
Even in the city most residents can't utilize more than a few miles of rapid rail, and still need to either drive or take a bus to cover most of the daily commute. And fares will have to go up to cover the cost of fuel. Routes will probably be cut too.
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 11:17 pm Post subject: Re: The true end of suburbia begins
Denny wrote:
I suspect most people reading this have never taken a ride on a streetcar, but compared to buses they are so much smoother and quieter for the passenger. And, no exhaust.
I live in Minnesota and live by the light rail in Minneapolis. I take it downtown everyday. My boyfriend's best friend is an engineer for it also. Unfortunately it only goes north and south, but connects to the edge of Bloomington which is two suburbs down.
Joined: Aug 03, 2007 Posts: 4607 Location: Boston Suburbs
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 11:45 pm Post subject: Re: Streetcars - the true end of suburbia begins
cube wrote:
Is your question truly *sincere*?
Yes, I backed off in order to give you a chance to state your case.
cube wrote:
Perhaps I should turn the question around and ask, why do you think "city planning" (in particular transportation) will help us....if that is your position?
It seems obvious to me. Even if we didn't have peak oil, public transportation would be necessary just to ease traffic problems, limited parking spaces, and smog. So I find it very difficult to make a compelling case that public transportation has no reason to exist. _________________ http://doomsteaddiary.blogspot.com/
Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 12:35 am Post subject: Re: The true end of suburbia begins
Javaman wrote:
Suburbs are more affordable than close-in neighborhoods. The taxes are lower too. A house in the burbs is often 25-50% the cost of a similar sized house in the city. It might be newer and more energy-efficient.
I agree. However I think there will come a "turning point" in the near future-"near future" meaning within my lifetime.
Javaman wrote:
The difference in price might amount to several hundred thousand dollars. That will easily buy a durable, fuel-efficient car and a lot of fuel, maybe 20 to 30 years worth at $15 per gallon, assuming 40 mpg and 10,000 miles of commuting per year.
If this was simply a matter of the cost of fuel then I would agree with you totally. In fact when I first came onto this site I had the exact same opinion as yours. The numbers seem simple enough at first glance, just buy a $10K car that gets 50mpg.....hell anybody can afford that even at $15 / gallon gasoline right??? however.....
There are more expenses here then just the cost of fuel. I think people underestimate how expensive infrastructure truly costs.
Not to sound insulting but people have NO IDEA. Absolutely NO IDEA.
The reason of course is because infrastructure is subsidized so you never really see the "true" cost.
and of course there's also the issue of cheap credit which everybody seems to agree will go the way of the dodo bird post peak.
IMHO the end of cheap credit will pull the plug on suburbia faster then expensive fuel. Imagine walking into a bank and saying you want to buy a house.
and they reply, "okay fine put a 50% down payment and pay off the loan in 10 years."
BTW in the beginning of the 20th century that was a common requirement for home mortgage loans.
Javaman wrote:
Of course, since jobs have followed people out to the suburbs, many suburbanites don't need to drive that much anyway.
I'm quite certain there will be plenty of folks like mos6507 who will fight to the bitter end to the last drop of blood to sustain this lifestyle, but they will lose.
It's not just the cost of gasoline...there are a dirty dozen variables acting against suburbia. That's why suburbia will collapse. _________________ joeltrout Oct-2008: Dow 13,000 in three years
Joined: Jul 02, 2008 Posts: 595 Location: Canterbury, UK
Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 4:44 am Post subject: Re: The true end of suburbia begins
cube wrote:
If this was simply a matter of the cost of fuel then I would agree with you totally. In fact when I first came onto this site I had the exact same opinion as yours. The numbers seem simple enough at first glance, just buy a $10K car that gets 50mpg.....hell anybody can afford that even at $15 / gallon gasoline right???
Wrong, really. I get from 50 to 55 mpg in my little Polo diesel, but the train-subway combo is still cheaper over the same distance, even if I don't buy the monthly ticket. It's also more efficient, since it carries more people, and lasts longer than a car (we have news trains now. Thank God, the old trains were from 1949. They took them away in 2002, I think).
cube wrote:
There are more expenses here then just the cost of fuel. I think people underestimate how expensive infrastructure truly costs. Not to sound insulting but people have NO IDEA. Absolutely NO IDEA. The reason of course is because infrastructure is subsidized so you never really see the "true" cost. and of course there's also the issue of cheap credit which everybody seems to agree will go the way of the dodo bird post peak.
Highways, and streets for that matter, cost a lot too. And they cost you in maintenance, cleaning, etc. They cost further because when there are accidents (much more common on the roads than on railroads), ambulances must come along, the traffic gets stuck...
Again, a car carries one person and does 50 mpg. Expect 40-45 in my car to carry 5 people, and no 7-seater to do that kind of mileage. A train can carry a few hundreds of people and, using more power, merchandising as well. A trains lasts longer and can be refurbished more easily. And, because of the credit crunch, money may not be readily available to buy a car. _________________ Environmental News and Clippings:
http://www.google.co.uk/reader/shared/10279555364898696533
Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 5:05 am Post subject: Re: The true end of suburbia begins
cube wrote:
TreebeardsUncle wrote:
So, when does suburbia begin to go into decline. Looks like there could be at least 20 years before there is much of a change in California.
I used to live in California, that place is FUBAR. I can't speak for the suburbs but the "exurbs" are collapsing right now as we speak. Every time you watch the news and hear about things like home foreclosures and copper pipe thieves chances are they're talking about the exurbs. It is "the edge" of the system that collapses first.
Yep. In the US, that simply has to be the first state to seriously tank. It's high taxes, millions of illegal and uneducated Mexicans coupled with endless social programs spells trouble in River City.
It's a huge state with would require outrageous $$$ for any kind of semi-functional public transportation. Just thinking about that place gives me doomer Heeby Jeebies.
Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 6:31 am Post subject: Re: Streetcars - the true end of suburbia begins
Property values in my 1910s neighborhood (less than two miles from a vibrant, growing downtown) are going up and up. It's nearly unbelievable. And even more astonishing is the rapidity with which these old homes are selling.
Meanwhile, property in the 'burbs are falling like a rock. Those houses are falling in value and taking months and months to sell. I think even the unwashed masses understand that $3.30 gasoline is a respite from even higher gas prices.
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