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Peakoil.com :: View topic - 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
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2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
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frankthetank
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 8:41 am    Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I'm no pro, but this could get ugly. That thing has Jamaica to contend with and then its free to do its thing. Hopefully it stays away from the majority of oil rigs and large population centers.

Personally i'd rather see it go west into Mexico or die completely!
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qwanta
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 8:54 am    Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

firestarter wrote:
I guess it didn't die, it was merely on life support.

I don't think any of the forecasts were predicting it would die. Where did you get that information from?
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dohboi
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 8:57 am    Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

RE wrote:

"No doubt, but the majority opinion here definitely is that Doom is Coming. Just nobody can agree on when it will come, or by the precise means it is manifested. SOMETHING though will be eventually identifiable as the Tipping Point. The trick is to pick out what it is."


The global tipping point is upon us, it just happening a few thousand miles north of Gustav:

Tipping Point

But two super hurricanes hitting at once would be a pretty good tipping point for the US. Didn't something like this happen in the movie "The Day After Tomorrow"?

But don't worry. We have top people in charge that are sure to do a heck of a job! Rolling Eyes
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firestarter
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 9:08 am    Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

And then there was Hanna:


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Roccland
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 9:09 am    Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

dohboi wrote:
RE wrote:

"No doubt, but the majority opinion here definitely is that Doom is Coming. Just nobody can agree on when it will come, or by the precise means it is manifested. SOMETHING though will be eventually identifiable as the Tipping Point. The trick is to pick out what it is."


The global tipping point is upon us, it just happening a few thousand miles north of Gustav:

Tipping Point

But two super hurricanes hitting at once would be a pretty good tipping point for the US. Didn't something like this happen in the movie "The Day After Tomorrow"?

But don't worry. We have top people in charge that are sure to do a heck of a job! Rolling Eyes


Dang - all this doomer talk...

you guys need to lighten up...

Really.
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GoghGoner
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 9:17 am    Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Holy cow. Look at thy yellow blob that appeared right below Mexico's Cantarell oilfield. This is the ultimate worst-case scenario playing out. A couple more days from now we may be biking to work -- whoops, a lot of us already do.

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TheDude
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 9:22 am    Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Quote:
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND.

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Eli
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 9:54 am    Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Gustav is going to be passing over the loop current, if it comes off of Jamaica pretty much intact it will have a great opportunity to strengthen. The intensity forecast could easily be raised with this storm.

And whoever said that Katrina took the easier path on NOLA is correct.

It is much worse for NO if the storm hits just to the West, they would then get the brunt of the surge, you can be 30 miles inland and only be 2.5 ft above sea level.

If the storm goes to the East it brings North Winds and flooding from Lake Ponchartrain.
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Forney2008
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 10:24 am    Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

I know this might not pertain to this discussion, but I was wondering if there is any maps for any oil platforms, rigs, etc. located along the northeast coast. I remember hearing that New Jersey had some refineries? If so, where? I am just saying because hurricanes do affect this part of the country too, just not as often. Anyway, it looks like Gustav is going to be a real doozy, and yet crude oil is down a few bucks?
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strider3700
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 10:41 am    Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Gustov has potential to be bad but it wouldn't take that much to steer it into Mexico to die. A couple more days to get into the gulf and then we'll have a good idea of just how bad it will be.
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TonisD
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 10:50 am    Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

strider3700 wrote:
Gustov has potential to be bad but it wouldn't take that much to steer it into Mexico to die. A couple more days to get into the gulf and then we'll have a good idea of just how bad it will be.


Gustav is heading for a landfall on Monday. Kind of hard to wait "a couple of days", don't you think?
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MadScientist
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 11:01 am    Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

TonisD wrote:
strider3700 wrote:
Gustov has potential to be bad but it wouldn't take that much to steer it into Mexico to die. A couple more days to get into the gulf and then we'll have a good idea of just how bad it will be.


Gustav is heading for a landfall on Monday. Kind of hard to wait "a couple of days", don't you think?


Are you suggesting evacuating the entire Carribbean and GoM region now?

It could go just about any direction. Computer models cannot accurately account for inherent chaos.

You cant really call an evac until the storm is 24 hours or less from landfall. And even then, many people will be evacuated needlessly.
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Roccland
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 11:06 am    Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

MadScientist wrote:
TonisD wrote:
strider3700 wrote:
Gustov has potential to be bad but it wouldn't take that much to steer it into Mexico to die. A couple more days to get into the gulf and then we'll have a good idea of just how bad it will be.


Gustav is heading for a landfall on Monday. Kind of hard to wait "a couple of days", don't you think?


Are you suggesting evacuating the entire Carribbean and GoM region now?

It could go just about any direction. Computer models cannot accurately account for inherent chaos.

You cant really call an evac until the storm is 24 hours or less from landfall. And even then, many people will be evacuated needlessly.


Yep - they should get out...

Everyone and anyone that even marginally thinks they might be hit.

24 hours is too late...

Been down that garden path before.
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GoghGoner
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:03 pm    Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

TheDude wrote:
Quote:
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND.


Code orange, now. Anybody find any PEMEX evacuations or port closings because of this??

Quote:
A CONCENTRATED AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE...HAS PERSISTED TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO EVIDENCE YET OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION OVER WATER. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE
MOVING VERY SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO TODAY AND FRIDAY.


More on Gustav... From Master's blog:

Quote:
I give an increased 70% chance that Gustav will significantly hurt oil and gas production in the Gulf.
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Armageddon
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 1:28 pm    Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

From storm2K


Dr Jeff Masters pretty much sums it up with this quote in his update posted an hour ago:

"It's time to get familiar with the names Hanna, Josephine, Ike, and Kyle, because the tropical Atlantic is about to put on a rare burst of very high activity in the coming weeks."


Yikes !!
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