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Oil's energy contribution has declined by about 12% since 1999. The world's economies have also declined by about 12%. (Using conventional metrics, which are time delayed determinations, this will only be seen in hind sight). The massive destruction of asset values now occurring testifies to it happening. Peak is well behind us, world economies have peaked and will continue to decline.

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Peakoil.com :: View topic - Sakoku time as a solution for peakoil.
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Sakoku time as a solution for peakoil.
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Pretorian
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 4:01 am    Post subject: Sakoku time as a solution for peakoil. Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Japan consumes more oil than Mexico, Nigeria and Algeria can squeeze out of themselves combined. Think how the world will do with 5.5 extra million barrels of oil per day.
Pros:
--Japan was forced out of Sakoku, so returning it to original state is only fair;
-- naval blocade is easy to set up;
-- oceans do need a break from Japanese overfishing and whaling;
-- 5.5 mln barrels of oil per day, 77 bln m3 of NG per year , more than a 100 mln tonnes of coal , countless amounts of all other resources stay where they are , plummetting the price to the ground for years;
-- Russia, Iran and Venezuela pawning their teeth for a handfull of US corn;
--many countries get a hint and reduce their oil consumption;
--world forgets about peakoil for another 15-20 years;
-- many more;

Cons:

--lots of liberal whining;
--lack of quality electronic gismos for a few years;
-- some creditors will miss a paycheck;
--else?

as for me, its well worth $1 gasoline for a few years.
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KingM
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 9:01 am    Post subject: Re: Sakoku time as a solution for peakoil. Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Pretorian wrote:

as for me, its well worth $1 gasoline for a few years.


Just to be clear, are you advocating the extermination of 125 million Japanese via naval blockade and starvation in order to lower your gas to $1/gallon for a few years?
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Nano
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 9:05 am    Post subject: Re: Sakoku time as a solution for peakoil. Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

What's Sakoku?

And why are you proposing we eliminate Japan? Why not some other country?

But I like your warlike thinking. It reminds me of what happens to me whenever I'm pondering peak oil related stuff after drinking some alcohol. I guess war would solve a lot of problems, providing we keep it conventional and short. Perhaps our World Leaders are already negotiating a suitable theater where they can offload their surplus populations, in addition suspending pesky civil liberties, and tightening the governments grip in general.

I wonder which country will be left without a chair when the music stops this time. I doubt it will be Japan, however. I'm thinking more the Middle East region. That would jive well with the way things have been progressing these last few decades, so it would require minimal effort to push through. And they are one of the few regions without nuclear weapons, so they had it coming didn't they!
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s0ul5
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 11:26 am    Post subject: Re: Sakoku time as a solution for peakoil. Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

cons:
- no sumo wrestling on cable

That's it. Energy crisis solved.
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nobodypanic
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 12:43 pm    Post subject: Re: Sakoku time as a solution for peakoil. Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

yeah sure, it's a great plan if you're a member of the PRC's politburo.

however, as an american citizen w/half a brain, i am not so fond of such a silly move; ethical concerns aside, it's downright stupid.
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shortonoil
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 12:56 pm    Post subject: Re: Sakoku time as a solution for peakoil. Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Japan is one of the technological centers of the world. Since the ability of develop and implement technology has been our species primary survival mechanism for the last 2 million years, your idea appears to be a little self defeating.

I’ve got to agree with nobodypanic, it’s stupid!
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GASMON
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 2:17 pm    Post subject: Re: Sakoku time as a solution for peakoil. Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

shortonoil wrote:
Japan is one of the technological centers of the world. Since the ability of develop and implement technology has been our species primary survival mechanism for the last 2 million years, your idea appears to be a little self defeating.

I’ve got to agree with nobodypanic, it’s stupid!


Japan is one of the technological COPYING centers of the world.

They dont invent much. Just good at making things that folks in USA, UK, Germany invent. Bloody good in fact.

Let em live. Nuke the frogs instead !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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shortonoil
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 5:55 pm    Post subject: Re: Sakoku time as a solution for peakoil. Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

GASMON said:

Quote:
Japan is one of the technological COPYING centers of the world.


Mimicry is the bases of Complex culture and technology. No one ever invented anything. Our art of technology is an accumulation of a million years of little bits, supplied by millions of people. That’s like saying someone invented the Swiss watch. I think he was probably Chinese. It was called a sundial!

The rest were improvements.
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Pretorian
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 9:25 pm    Post subject: Re: Sakoku time as a solution for peakoil. Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

KingM wrote:
Pretorian wrote:

as for me, its well worth $1 gasoline for a few years.


Just to be clear, are you advocating the extermination of 125 million Japanese via naval blockade and starvation in order to lower your gas to $1/gallon for a few years?



First of all, Japan supported up to 50-60 mln people under Sakoku policy. There is no reason it cant do so now. Median Japanese is 44 years old, so it won't take very long to have 60-65 mln people to die of natural reasons, especially without all that special seafood and fancy cancer treatments. Plus I am sure you could be allowed to share your saved on gasoline $ with some Japanese ( sort of like "adopt a Japanese ") program. It shouldnt cost more than a quarter per day, unless you want to give him/her a fancy diet.
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Pretorian
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 9:38 pm    Post subject: Re: Sakoku time as a solution for peakoil. Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

nobodypanic wrote:
yeah sure, it's a great plan if you're a member of the PRC's politburo.

however, as an american citizen w/half a brain, i am not so fond of such a silly move; ethical concerns aside, it's downright stupid.



well, if you had the other half you could grasp the magnitude of the precipice any resource--guzzler with no proper economy is facing right now.
Someone will be left out in misery to die-- either a foreign country or poor people within your own, and there no buts or ifs to it. I am sure many will prefer the second , but ruling elite might consider having too many firing squads to pacify those who don't want to die peacefully to be rather a hassle.
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Pretorian
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 9:45 pm    Post subject: Re: Sakoku time as a solution for peakoil. Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Nano wrote:
And why are you proposing we eliminate Japan? Why not some other country?



Not eliminate but ban it from participation in international trade, thats it.

Why not other? because
a) they consume lots of everything;
b) naval blocade is easy to set up and cheap to maintain;
c) they have lived isolated for more than 250 continiuos years ;
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TheDude
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 10:41 pm    Post subject: Re: Sakoku time as a solution for peakoil. Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Hope to hear from "I use no oil" JD on this one!

Why not just price oil high enough so it's inaccessible to poor customers? Rather ridiculous idea you have. Might work in Civ III. Sakoku was far from a total ban on trade, too.
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cube
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 11:03 pm    Post subject: Re: Sakoku time as a solution for peakoil. Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

s0ul5 wrote:
cons:
- no sumo wrestling on cable

That's it. Energy crisis solved.

other cons...
A world without Japan would mean:

1) no more beautiful women with blue hair


2) no more bad English translations aka "engrish"


3) no more alcohol vending machines

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Pretorian
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 2:53 am    Post subject: Re: Sakoku time as a solution for peakoil. Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

TheDude wrote:

Why not just price oil high enough so it's inaccessible to poor customers? Rather ridiculous idea you have. Might work in Civ III. Sakoku was far from a total ban on trade, too.


Its been done already, its trivial and not much fun. Besides, wouldn't you prefer to have misery an ocean away than in your closest ghetto? There is more to it than just a public order and peace. Useless as they are now, they'll make excellent cannon fodder and factory slaves, when the time is right.
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venky
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 9:51 am    Post subject: Re: Sakoku time as a solution for peakoil. Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

sounds a bit mean to be honest. I mean all those people dying.
And it doesn't really solve anything, because of Jevon's paradox and all that sort of thing you know. Might just buy a couple of years............
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