Another Record ($147.27)

Sys1 · Intermediate Crude Joined: Feb 25, 2005 Posts: 682

From another thread : Russia may cut off oil flow to the West : 1mbd supply cut on markets, perhabs as soon as monday, Poland and Germany first on list.
I expect markets to become mad monday.
IMO, we are heading towards 1929 soon.
I also wouldn't be much surprised that world war 3 could occur :
China+Russia+OPEC vs USA+Canada+Europe+Israel+Australia+Japan

But, let's try to be optimistic for a moment. Europe is such politically weak that our brillant European 6 months president Sarkozy (and also "my" president as I'm french) will as usual change his mind at the speed of light regarding Russia policy.
All this sh*t could end (at least for a moment) with great smiles towards Russia and cameras as we will finally "understand" that all those Georgians, Ossetians and anyone Russia makes war to are bad muslim terrorists who deserve to die.

Russia knows about peak oil.

ROCKMAN · Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 5:23 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)

All real and scary possibilities sys. But I see the teams differently: USA+China+OPEC vs. Russia vs. the EU vs. everyone else.

Perhaps this is an opportunity for all here to design their own "dream team" for the future "contest". Let's hear your picks.

vtsnowedin · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jul 11, 2008 Posts: 625

OK:
USA +Canada+Japan vs. everybody else.
If they get together and shut off the worlds two largest oil importers they increase there oil supply by 30%. thats a lot easier and surer than exploring and developing another 30%if thats even possible. They don't have to invade anybody just shut off the flow of oil to us. Brings Georgia into focus dosn't it.

ROCKMAN · Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 6:47 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)

Sadly enough VT that's exactly where I see the battle going, in general. It will never be an issue of production rate vs. demand (in the long term), at least in my lifetime. That's the physical PO so many here chat about. I see the real issue as access vs. demand. An artificial PO, if you will. Before a PPO develops long term, OPEC will be able to finally act as a true cartel. This APO, IMO, must lead to political/military confrontation. This is THE reason why I don't spend to much energy thinking about the PPO. At 58 yo I don't think I'll ever see the long term PPO. But the APO will likely have a very strong impact on my life and that of my 8 yo daughter.

In my previous life I was an avid student of war history (had planned on being a "lifer" but injuries prevented such youthful ambitions). This eventually led to studing pre-war histories. And this led to the discovery that often lack of expectation of war by the masses often preceeded many conflicts. Typically the worse case scenario was just too disturbing to consider seriously. I don't bother much with history anymore. Those patterns are well etched in my memory.

TheDude · Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 1:18 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)

ROCK - you're describing what Robert Rapier termed "Peak Lite," pre-peak market jitters which are no more fun than riding the downslope itself. Google the Google it, too. His theory has certainly stated its case very well in the 2 years since his original posting on it.
_________________
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?

ROCKMAN · Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 2:01 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)

Very good Dude. He's a much better wordsmith then I but I think we all see the same story unfolding. After a few months of hanging around with all you clever folks here it's clear to me that the debate over the physical PO (or the multiple dips and ups we'll see along the plateau) aren't going to have the impact of the geopolitical aspects heading our way. For me it makes the subject of sharp cliff vs. downward slope less important. Not that they may not happen. I fully expect some very sharp drops and perhaps equally sharp ups along the way. As RR put it so well, the lack of excess production capacity is driving the price curve for the most part. The price curve will drive crude oil availability. And this crude oil availability will drive the political/military response as I see it. Just the approach of PO demands that there will come a point when oil will not be available to consumers independent of their ability to pay for it. And lack of oil will mean a degree of economic death to those consumers. How many wars do recall starting over lesser issues?

firestarter · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Mar 19, 2006 Posts: 1181

Below $113. A directional bet on thin trading that is PURE SPECULATION (doesn't mean they're wrong), especially given the fact that it will take days to assess the damage--and there will be damage-- from the storm. I'm wondering if this is also a bet that refiners are in a bad way from the storm, and therefore can't refine the stuff at their usual capacity?
_________________
Civilization: the biosphere's skin disease

bl00k · Posted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 9:00 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)

Oil below $111 now. Not at all what i expected, but maybe things will turn around when the US starts trading again tomorrow.
_________________
The man who moves a mountain begins by carrying away small stones.

smallpoxgirl · Moderator Joined: Nov 08, 2004 Posts: 6458

They're moving pretty good volume on the Globex. October contract crude has traded 50,000 contracts already today compared to 167,000 for the whole day last Monday. IMHO, this just reflects Gustav coming ashore as a cat 2 rather than a cat 4 as was feared. Oil and natural gas are both down sharply and breaking through support. Natural gas is the lowest it's been in a year.
_________________
"So while you sit and whistle Dixie with your money and your power.
I can hear the flowers a-growin in the rubble of the towers.
I hear leaders quit their lying
I hear babies quit their crying.
I hear soldiers quit their dying, one and all." - OCMS

Tanada · Posted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 9:27 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)

smallpoxgirl · Moderator Joined: Nov 08, 2004 Posts: 6458

firestarter · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Mar 19, 2006 Posts: 1181

This is a long covering rally for those who have short interest. It is not based on any reasonable measure of storm driven fundamentals. After the longs have mostly been winnowed out, which may be now, this will provide an excellent entry point for those with dry powder left in their cache.
_________________
Civilization: the biosphere's skin disease

smallpoxgirl · Moderator Joined: Nov 08, 2004 Posts: 6458

firestarter · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Mar 19, 2006 Posts: 1181