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Novus
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Jun 21, 2005
Posts: 1740
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 Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 10:06 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season |
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| Eli wrote: | "IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED AND GUSTAV BECAME A CATEGORY 4 OR 5
HURRICANE BY 72 HR."
NHC |
What is the water temps out there. If 90 degree or higher water that very well could happen. |
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Eli
Fusion
Joined: Jun 18, 2005
Posts: 3970
Location: In a van down by the river
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| Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 10:28 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season |
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It is 90 degrees, alsoGus is tracking right now over the warmest part of the gulf as soon as it gets away from Jamaica.
It could explode not much from stopping it.
and then there is Hanna, no one has clue what she will do. |
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Shannymara
Moderator
Joined: Oct 04, 2004
Posts: 5653
Location: Body in OK, Heart in TX
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| Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 10:32 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season |
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SSTs in the Gulf appear to be just a little below 90 degrees:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/gulfmex.c.gif
32C ~ 90F.
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Leanan
News Editor
Joined: May 20, 2004
Posts: 4568
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| Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 7:36 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season |
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Gustav is growing:
| Quote: | Satellite images show that Gustav has an expanding cloud shield and impressive banding features. An Air Force reconnaissance plane that has been sampling the storm's circulation found that the size of Gustav has significantly increased.
After the storm moves away from Jamaica...significant intensification is possible. Vertical wind shear is forecast to be very light during the next couple of days...and combined with the deep warm Caribbean waters...could produce a strong hurricane very quickly. The official forecast will show rapid intensification before it reaches western Cuba and could be conservative as some models show Category Four strength at that time. A large trough currently seen in water vapor images over the central gulf of Mexico is expected to move westward slowly during the next day or two. This trough may impart some southwesterly shear on Gustav as it enters the central gulf of Mexico. Although the forecast shows some weakening due to the shear...Gustav is expected to be a large powerful hurricane as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast. |
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Eli
Fusion
Joined: Jun 18, 2005
Posts: 3970
Location: In a van down by the river
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| Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 8:40 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season |
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Gustav is taking off
Gustav |
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TonisD
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jun 12, 2007
Posts: 168
Location: Estonia
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| Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 8:53 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season |
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The oilfields are screwed.
Here |
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Armageddon
Fusion
Joined: Apr 13, 2005
Posts: 3149
Location: St.Louis, Mo
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| Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 8:55 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season |
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| As soon as Gustev is totally away from Jamaica, he will explode. Cat 4 hitting the tip of Cuba and heading into GOM. Is there any shear in the GOM that could hinder it ? I am not privy on shear. |
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Armageddon
Fusion
Joined: Apr 13, 2005
Posts: 3149
Location: St.Louis, Mo
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| Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 9:07 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season |
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| TonisD wrote: | The oilfields are screwed.
Here |
Some models are shifting more eastward now. Florida is not out of the woods just yet, atleast for Gustev. Now Hanna is a different story. Can you imagine if she heads into the GOM too ? Very possible with the path she is on. She will be in the Bahama's on Monday for a little visit. I hope she doesn't tear up Coco Cay and Nassau too bad before I get there over Thanksgiving weekend. |
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firestarter
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Mar 19, 2006
Posts: 1171
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| Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 9:25 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season |
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Actually most models still has Gus going to the west of NO. Some even have it heading straight to Houston. By tomorrow at this time we'll have a much better feel where she's going to end up.
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Eli
Fusion
Joined: Jun 18, 2005
Posts: 3970
Location: In a van down by the river
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| Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 11:00 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season |
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From what I am reading over at storm2k there is nothing in front of him to slow him down. Wind sheer is not in the forecast.
Storm2k has some pro mets on their and some very good semi-pros.
Gustav followed by Hanna is going to be bad, although Hanna might not amount to much, or at least I hope she doesn't. |
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pup55
Expert
Joined: May 26, 2004
Posts: 3807
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| Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 12:03 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season |
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| Quote: | | fuel plan was activated Thursday morning and there has been significant demand increase in the SE/upper TX coast area. Suppliers have all fuel terminals at full distubituion capacity and a flooding the entire retail system with as much fuel as possible. There have been a few supply issues in Harris County…but these have been corrected. Today and Saturday the fuel plan will continue to surge to local retail along the coast and begin to push supplies to the evacuation routes and contra-flow corridors. |
Storm 2K
This is going to be interesting.... all of those 5 million Houstonians, topping off their tanks, with the US inventory system already at or near the MOL....North Dakota at the other end of the line already dribbling out....
Add to this a couple million floridians doing the same thing over the weekend when Hanna figures out what it is doing...
Add to this, the normal Labor Day traffic and fuel consumption...
The refiners in the impact zone will have to shut down at some point: Baytown, Lake Charles, maybe Port Arthur, a couple around New Orleans, potentially the big plant in Baton Rouge...as far east as Pascagoula and as far west as Texas City. We are talking about up to a couple million barrels per day of crude demand potentially shut down at any given point, depending on where this guy hits....not to mention all of that lost Unleaded production....
Perhaps a little popcorn is in order at this point. |
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Armageddon
Fusion
Joined: Apr 13, 2005
Posts: 3149
Location: St.Louis, Mo
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| Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 12:14 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season |
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| pup55 wrote: | | Quote: | | fuel plan was activated Thursday morning and there has been significant demand increase in the SE/upper TX coast area. Suppliers have all fuel terminals at full distubituion capacity and a flooding the entire retail system with as much fuel as possible. There have been a few supply issues in Harris County…but these have been corrected. Today and Saturday the fuel plan will continue to surge to local retail along the coast and begin to push supplies to the evacuation routes and contra-flow corridors. |
Storm 2K
This is going to be interesting.... all of those 5 million Houstonians, topping off their tanks, with the US inventory system already at or near the MOL....North Dakota at the other end of the line already dribbling out....
Add to this a couple million floridians doing the same thing over the weekend when Hanna figures out what it is doing...
Add to this, the normal Labor Day traffic and fuel consumption...
The refiners in the impact zone will have to shut down at some point: Baytown, Lake Charles, maybe Port Arthur, a couple around New Orleans, potentially the big plant in Baton Rouge...as far east as Pascagoula and as far west as Texas City. We are talking about up to a couple million barrels per day of crude demand potentially shut down at any given point, depending on where this guy hits....not to mention all of that lost Unleaded production....
Perhaps a little popcorn is in order at this point. |
Very good points. |
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r101958
Tar Sands
Joined: Apr 10, 2008
Posts: 97
Location: Florida
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| Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 12:38 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season |
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All of you should really check out this link....it is an eye opener and not just somebody's idea of a joke. I checked it out yesterday and again today. The forecast does not change much. Follow the instructions below:
When you get there, on the left side, in the 'area' box, pick North America. Then above the map that comes up, in the 'step > valid time box, progressively select through the time frames until you reach next week Saturday.
This forecast is arrived at by feeding a great deal of data through a forecast program on super computers.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500 |
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emersonbiggins
Moderator
Joined: Jul 10, 2005
Posts: 5172
Location: Dallas
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| Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 12:53 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season |
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 Gustav looks like a sideshow compared to what is forecast for Hanna.
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"It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
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Armageddon
Fusion
Joined: Apr 13, 2005
Posts: 3149
Location: St.Louis, Mo
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| Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 12:57 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season |
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| emersonbiggins wrote: | | Gustav looks like a sideshow compared to what is forecast for Hanna. |
What is the forecast for Hanna ? And, how is the shear in the GOM for Gustav ? |
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