Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Scenario: In september meeting OPEC decides to cut production to drive oil price to, say 185$ a barrel and tries to hold it there as long as possible.
This is from a PO mitigation point of view. I'm thinking here that 185$ might not be too high to get used to in consumer countries and more efficient use of energy would develop. Also OPEC would still make about as much profit as before despite lower demand. _________________ The best about PO is that it constantly unbores me.
Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 12:07 am Post subject: Re: How would you feel about OPEC keeping prices at 185$?
120 - Economies collapsing world wide. Maybe 5 years remaining.
185 - Economies collapsing world wide at a much faster rate - maybe 2 years.
250 - The end of industrial society as it's existed for 100 years within 12 months.
In Bush's 1st term, 10% of all URR were burned.
In Bush's 2nd term, 10% of all URR were burned.
It's over.
The only question is, "how long till the fundamental mooring underpinning modern society are weakened sufficiently to induce collapse?"
Throw in 8% decline, starting in 09, and price doesn't matter much anyway - you're talking rapid decline to oblivion.
I hate being here.
My parents are aliens. They accidentally left me on this shithole when I was a kid, or something.
I hope they pick me up soon.
I'll put in a good word for you when they get here (except the war mongers - you get to stay to see the result of your mongering). _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3915 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 5:50 am Post subject: Re: How would you feel about OPEC keeping prices at 185$?
More than anything else people crave stabillity, it lets humans make plans for the future and pretend they are in controll.
Pick any number and hold it for 24 months or longer and they get my vote, if I know what prices are going to be I can structure my life around that number. _________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
Joined: Aug 30, 2005 Posts: 277 Location: Second Vermont Republic
Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 9:13 am Post subject: Re: How would you feel about OPEC keeping prices at 185$?
If someone could guarantee to hold oil to an inflation adjusted $185 for the next ten years, I'd take it. Just to drive it up and "try to hold it as long as possible" doesn't sound like much of a deal.
Joined: Feb 20, 2005 Posts: 2888 Location: Uppsala, Sweden
Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 10:40 am Post subject: Re: How would you feel about OPEC keeping prices at 185$?
I think it is a good idea for us, and I think it is what OPEC is trying to do, albeit slowly.
As long as the world economy keeps looking pretty healthy they can keep production flat or even cut it. If things starts slowing down in Asia OPEC will increase production to drive prices down until things look better again. _________________ Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 11:52 am Post subject: Re: How would you feel about OPEC keeping prices at 185$?
If they had a lick of sense, the government would be setting a price floor of $200/barrel for imported crude and dumping the balance into building wind infrastructure.
Instead all the politricks are whining about high gas prices and talking about giving people refund checks to offset their gasolline expenses. _________________ "So while you sit and whistle Dixie with your money and your power.
I can hear the flowers a-growin in the rubble of the towers.
I hear leaders quit their lying
I hear babies quit their crying.
I hear soldiers quit their dying, one and all." - OCMS
Joined: Jun 05, 2005 Posts: 365 Location: Portland Oregon, USA
Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 2:48 pm Post subject: Re: How would you feel about OPEC keeping prices at 185$?
I'm with Smallpox girl. $185 - 200 floor would be the right thing to do. People would still drive, but we could use any overage to prepare post-oil infrastructure.
Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:05 pm Post subject: Re: How would you feel about OPEC keeping prices at 185$?
dsula wrote:
Cashmere wrote:
120 - Economies collapsing world wide. Maybe 5 years remaining.
don't buy that, 120 is easily absorbed, some life style change, that's it. As long as supply is guaranteed and price maintained.
Cashmere wrote:
185 - Economies collapsing world wide at a much faster rate - maybe 2 years.
same here, some business attitude change, that's it. The "UPS overnite" mentality won't work anymore. But it's just a matter of adapting.
High oil price is not a problem, what's dangerous is a fast rising price.
Perhaps we should agree on terms.
By "economies collapsing" I mean at least a 1-3% decline in actual GDP year over year going forward.
You think at 185 the economy keeps growing?
We'll know soon. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:28 pm Post subject: Re: How would you feel about OPEC keeping prices at 185$?
Starvid wrote:
I think it is a good idea for us, and I think it is what OPEC is trying to do, albeit slowly.
As long as the world economy keeps looking pretty healthy they can keep production flat or even cut it. If things starts slowing down in Asia OPEC will increase production to drive prices down until things look better again.
(Emphasis mine) _________________ "Once the game is over, the king and the pawn go back in the same box."
-Italian Proverb
Joined: Mar 25, 2008 Posts: 880 Location: Alif Lam Mim
Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:44 pm Post subject: Re: How would you feel about OPEC keeping prices at 185$?
Quote:
Perhaps we should agree on terms.
By "economies collapsing" I mean at least a 1-3% decline in actual GDP year over year going forward.
You think at 185 the economy keeps growing?
I think at these prices there's enough motivation by people to go with low-consumption patterns: bikes, scooters, hybrids, etc. I'm seeing it all around me. Bike use is up dramatically here. Two of my three managers were talking today about getting scooters. Both are Republicans and they brought this up in the conversation about drilling (because of McCain's VP choice of Palin).
As we keep prices above $3.50 a gallon or even $2.50/gal, we'll have this move towards lower consumption of gasoline. It's very likely that we'll be stuck within this $100-$200/barrel 2008 USD for a long time. New projects on coming online and people are cutting back. That will soften the blow.
We'll have billions going into energy conservation and many more "Picken's Plans" for renewable energy as wealthy individuals will notice a chance to make even more money investing in alternative fuels and electricity.
With the right leadership and action, we could have an initial contraction, but after a few years have a stabilization. The era of YOY growth is probably gone for a while. But people will see that their air and water is cleaner when they use less oil. They are healthier as they bike and walk more. Roads don't deteriorate as quickly with 2,000 lb vehicles off the road. Economic growth is gone. Bye bye. But we can still improve our standard of living in this country YOY.
Quote:
You think at 185 the economy keeps growing?
Why do you have a dichotomy? Only two things? Either growing or collapsing? What about negligible growth, stabilization, up and down, etc.? A black and white view of the world is so Bush. (just teasing) _________________ Riches are not from abundance of worldly goods, but from a contented mind.
Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 7:00 pm Post subject: Re: How would you feel about OPEC keeping prices at 185$?
Quote:
Only two things? Either growing or collapsing?
People crave the simplicity of absolutes, think of it as a bug in the human mental OS. If you've not already read about the study of Heuristics and Biases, seriously interesting stuff.
Anyway, it's hilarious to me that Cashmere et all think we'll be eating each other due to lack of oil in a short space of time. Financial collapse and a move of resource consumption away from the coddled west out to the hardy and down trodden east, maybe. Guess people will have to do real economic work for a living again! But I digress.
The US uses 20,000,000 Billion Barrels of oil per day.
(China comes in next at a mere 6,000,000 Billion less than 1/3)
Countries like Australia, New Zealand, Finland the UK and Japan have a per capita use of around 0.04 BBl / day.
The US has a per capita use of nearly double that at 0.07 BBl / day.
SO the US economy can reduce oil use down from .07 to .04 without the oil use per person dropping below that of Australia. I think Aus makes a good comparison being a large country with a relatively inhospitable climate and poor public transport.
That's a drop of 43% so, assuming that Cashmere is correct with his 8% per year drop of oil production the US could absorb five years of that and still end up looking like Australia...
And that is assuming that no extra alternative energy sources are brought online.
I mean if the US had a per capita use of oil similar to Aus that would reduce global consumption by MORE THAN THE ENTIRE OIL USE OF CHINA.
Yup, there will be hella hard economic times ahead, especially for anywhere with a high per capita use who imports oil. But the US is not going to just collapse over night into zombie hoards because there is a mind boggling amount of fat in the system.
Me, I'm hoping to emigrate to NZ before it all goes south, hey who wants an uncomfortable life?
Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 10:53 pm Post subject: Re: How would you feel about OPEC keeping prices at 185$?
Quote:
Countries like Australia, New Zealand, Finland the UK and Japan have a per capita use of around 0.04 BBl / day.
The US has a per capita use of nearly double that at 0.07 BBl / day.
SO the US economy can reduce oil use down from .07 to .04 without the oil use per person dropping below that of Australia.
Some guy above me thinks that by riding bikes we will save the economy?
You've gotta be, what? 19? Have you made 20 yet?
If everybody starts riding bikes, then the economy crashes because driving cars around is probably contributing 20-50% to GDP.
The next guy thinks the economy will be fine if we cut our oil consumption in half.
Brilliant.
Listen up newbs, energy is economy. Simple as that. I can't distill it any more.
Put up a list of energy use by country, and you'll see that it matches the list of largest economies. That's causation.
You cut the U.S. energy inputs in half, you cut the economy in half.
If you don't understand that, and you're still in "let's all ride bikes and be happy" fantasy land, you need to do a lot more reading on how exactly it is that oil contributes to every dollar of GDP.
As for the quote above, time will tell how wrong you are.
To think that, "we just divide by two and then we live like Australians" is simplistic thinking in its worst form.
You noobs can fight it out amongst yourselves. I don't have any inclination to argue with people whose basic premise is that at 200 dollars a barrel we "could have a stable economy."
That's naive beyond my conception. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 11:12 pm Post subject: Re: How would you feel about OPEC keeping prices at 185$?
That would not be much of a problem. The economy is functioning acceptably with oil at $120 and can adjust to that level with some contractions in transportation. Also, one can have a good life with a lower gdp. Folks don't need so much clutter.
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