I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 13065 Location: naive idiot fantasy world
Posted: Sat Jun 16, 2007 10:09 am Post subject: Re: Convergance and impact of issues
DrBang wrote:
I believe we will see a triage based admistration that will be reactionary. When everything goes to the crapper and basic services shut down, there may be an effort to to keep running essential services. For example water and sewrage.
I'm just not so convinced such triage will be attempted. I think it depends who is in power at the time. Certainly here in the US recent disaster has shown us the reaction has been to demonize certain groups of people, contain them, and then let them tough it out virtually on their own, with little support from administration. I can easily see administration dropping the problem like the stinking rotten hot potato it is, and leaving everyone on their own. But I'm feeling pretty negative about government these days. _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow." - jboogy
Joined: Jun 14, 2007 Posts: 152 Location: SE Qld Australia
Posted: Sat Jun 16, 2007 8:09 pm Post subject: Re: Convergance and impact of issues
Quote:
I too am a member of the local emergency [align=justify]services volunteer group
here in the United States and I assure you we are not prepared.
We are even less prepared. My point was an attempt to repsond has been started, along with training.
Opinion of the Australian Eastern Coast SES controller:
on a scale of 1-10 where 1 is we are completely stuffed and 10 is where we are ready to resp[align=justify]ond, Australia sits around 2. 5 years ago we used to be 1. The US in spite of Hurricane Katrina is considered to be around 4-5. The British are around 7-8 (up there with the best in the world).
Australia in the past has had a very slack response. "nothing ever happens here" While we don't have earthquakes or tornados, every couple of decades we get hit pretty bad. We have been looking at lifting our game by learning from how other countries do things. Some lessons are really hard won. The Tsunami that hit Indonesia on boxing day 2004 was a real eye opener.
One of the problems that US emergency services had during Hurricane Katrina was a top down structure and 11 levels of administration. The word had to be passed up the tree through 11 levels, then a decsion had to come form the top and percolate down those same 11 levels before anything could be done. Becuase we are so small in scale, we tend to be bottom up. Local groups can activate and request help up the tree.
We are now trialing a new system where all emergency services (Police, Ambulance, Fire dept, search and rescue, SES, etc) are under the same comand structure. Disasters that are now hiting are too bug for local groups to deal with on their own. To prevent them from being overwhelmed we now fly in volunteer groups from all over the country. The last two disaters we have done this with reasonable sucess. Cyclone Larry JTWC designation: 17P (cyclone is our term for hurricane) hit Queensland in 2005/6. Floods and storms hit Newcastle in NSW in the last week or so.
No we are not ready. It would be nice to be cloer to the mark though. Such training is invaluable for decision making in emergency circumstances.
Posted: Tue Jun 19, 2007 12:27 pm Post subject: Re: Convergance and impact of issues
DrBang wrote:
I believe we will see a triage based admistration that will be reactionary. When everything goes to the crapper and basic services shut down, there may be an effort to to keep running essential services. For example water and sewrage.
This happen after some serious crap has hit the fan. So in essence I agree with you but can see a partial solution. People will be forced to become more self sufficent. In Australia, this bottle neck here may be food production.
Sorry, for the delay in my response, but I lost your location. Which by the way, is my next point. While i can agree the requirement for self-sufficiency may kick in; the issues themselves will come as a surprise and unexpected occurrences will destabilize civilization to the point of no return. Oh, I do hope I am wrong. I have never wanted to be so wrong before in my life! Can we prevent this from happening? Yes, but we have to act now with preventive solutions, not later, and unless you can convince the United Nations or some Worldly Power to tackle the challenges {you have mentioned in your first post} right away then the solutions can not be achieved. Regardless of their overlapping or interacting, Sir. I fear the majority will not evolve.[u]
The solution is to identify the challenges, consider the solutions, develop a plan, and implement the plan. This all has to be done in a public way. Ideas need to be shared and communities need to address their own solutions in the same matter. These problems can no longer remain behind closed doors with populations of all countries depending on their governments to save them. This is prevention techniques and only then can we have hope to continue.
I do applaud the training and restructuring of your emergency services. We have implemented new radios which opens communications between the local emergency management team, police, firemen, patrolmen, and hazard team. This channel brings the local emergency people, state, and federal agency into more of a cohesive group. We will see!!
Joined: Jun 14, 2007 Posts: 152 Location: SE Qld Australia
Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2007 10:13 pm Post subject: Re: Convergance and impact of issues
Setag (cool pic on your siganture BTW)
Quote:
the issues themselves will come as a surprise and unexpected occurrences will destabilize civilization to the point of no return.
Sadly I think you may have a point. Even if you are half right then things are going to get really shitty. I guess I think there will come a point where the second wave of human nature will kick in and we start to rebuild. The first wave is everything is gone to crap, lets try and take what we need from our neighbours. This is short term thinking. The people who think in such terms will be most pissed when it breaks down and fails to work.
Depending on how things go this may be easier than we may think.
I like to examine such ideas by looking at fiction stories. They provide a useful commetry and simulation in the realm of "what if". The book "The Postman" was cool in this regard. Civilisation had broken down beyond the point of no return. After a time, things stabilised and a new network started up. The trigger for this was a postal service, network of communication between several small towns/gatherings of people in wood forts. After communication came co operation. After co-operation they banded together to see off the brigand banit groups trying to take things from them.
Another example was "Lucifers Hammer", based around the aftermath of a comet impact. This also put forward such ideas. This time, the chaos was averted before it went past a certain point. They hit a point in the story where certain things were decided. If they jumped one way then it all came apart. If they jumped another things go better.
In both books, people banded togther into groups of a couple of hundred. They started to make things and do things themsleves. They also defended a static position sucessfully. Then they started to trade and support groups around them. A new system of civilisation started up that ahd simialrities of the old.
I believe we will go through some crap in the next 0-7 years. At what scale and how bad and for how long remains to be seen.
Posted: Thu Jun 21, 2007 3:50 pm Post subject: Re: Convergance and impact of issues
DrBang wrote:
I like to examine such ideas by looking at fiction stories.
Too easy! The science fiction stories are mostly filled with issues of the fate of man or the fate of the universe. I enjoy reading a little SF. You can destroy the entire universe and then create some technology to rebuild it again. ( Good choices by the way )
I like to examine such ideas by looking at current events or the aftermath of events in today's world. The worse ethnic cleansing and genocide in Europe since World War II has taken place in Bosnia and the struggle to rebuild continues today, Darfur crisis needs no explanation, New Orleans in the States still struggles to survive in areas & crime increases every month, we have children going to bed every night ( all over the world ) without food or a hug, etc., etc. IF we can't band together now, how will we ever band together after Peak Oil?
How will we ever band together? Most likely we will not, and unfortunately we have the technological weapons available in far too many hands to destroy our fragile home planet and do not for one minute my new friend, think government or madmen will not use it to take what ever resource they or he may want.
Again, unless we sit around the table and share bread both in our communities and on the international stage for real solutions to identify the challenges, consider the solutions, develop a plan, and implement the plan; hope for tomorrow will only be found in science fiction books.
Joined: Jun 14, 2007 Posts: 152 Location: SE Qld Australia
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2007 12:17 am Post subject: Re: Convergance and impact of issues
Dr Bang is my call sign from my staff. I did my PhD in explosives. The art of turning big things into little things. Most of the time I break rocks. I have been know to diversify though. ''
blob8
From Setag:
Quote:
I like to examine such ideas by looking at current events or the aftermath of events in today's world. The worse ethnic cleansing and genocide in Europe since World War II has taken place in Bosnia and the struggle to rebuild continues today, Darfur crisis needs no explanation, New Orleans in the States still struggles to survive in areas & crime increases every month, we have children going to bed every night ( all over the world ) without food or a hug, etc., etc. IF we can't band together now, how will we ever band together after Peak Oil?
How will we ever band together? Most likely we will not, and unfortunately we have the technological weapons available in far too many hands to destroy our fragile home planet and do not for one minute my new friend, think government or madmen will not use it to take what ever resource they or he may want.
Yes well there is no real argument against that. There is a whole lot of tarck record to suggest that things will get pretty crappy. Especially if certain groups have a history (like in Yugoslavia). Anyone with anything genuine to contribute to the new world, retreat and let the psychos sort them selves out. Not that anything else is an option as they desperately want to do just that. Once the restraints of civilisation are removed, then all the talk in the world then becomes irrelevant. Yes things will get really ugly. Us humans will really shock oursleves with how low we can go. ('')
mumum
My hope is that small pockets of people will survive and start to pick up the pieces. We can't all go crazy at the same time (I hope). Probably well away from existing large population masses. Anyone sitting on anything percieved to be valuable like oil or a power generation plant will become a target.
There will (I hope) be small groups of people who retreat away form all of that and let the ferals fight it out. After a set time period, those who think trying to kill each other may just cull their own numbers (its a long shot but I like it). Its possible we also may suprise ourselves in this context. ('')
violent1
Yes govts will do all sorts of stupid things with their box of dangerous toys. If they start up on a wide spread nuclear exchange then all of this is academic. Anything else, while really bad and will literally destroy a lot of infrastructure, won't necessarily take out the entire human race. ('')
new_asthanos
Growing up will not be pleasant. Time to learn certain things the hard way. I guess this makes me a doomer with hope and belief in the human condition? ('')
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2007 12:10 pm Post subject: Re: Convergance and impact of issues
DrBang wrote:
Dr Bang is my call sign from my staff.
Growing up will not be pleasant. Time to learn certain things the hard way. I guess this makes me a doomer with hope and belief in the human condition? ('')
We could go on, but neither of us doubts that the world in which we live is on the brink of fundamental change and I appreciate the inspiration you have given me.
While I too am new to this forum, I welcome you and look forward to more conversations in the future...........
Joined: Jun 14, 2007 Posts: 152 Location: SE Qld Australia
Posted: Sat Jun 23, 2007 12:45 am Post subject: Re: Convergance and impact of issues
Quote:
BTW Do you work for a mining company?
Kind of. I work in a mining research outfit in Brisbane, about half way up the research food chain. Here is my story:
Bach of App Sc in Physics and Geology. I had no clear idea of what to do so I kept all options open. I trained among other things in radiation and health physics to work in the nuclear industry. It looked like that all the countires around Australia were going nuclera so this made sense. Instead I found gainfull employment in the mining industry. I worked in the coal exploration geophysics in remote locations. Then I did a PhD in blasting (the art of blow crap up). Now I work in a world class research outfit.
I am in an interesting position. I am starting up enivronmental based mining research. I also have ambitions of taking the mining research into industrial scale recycling. I believe I am in the right place at the right time to make a very real difference.
As a direct consequence I wish to be as switched on as possible. Ideas I may have have to survive as the time coming will be challenging. There will be no room for dumb decisions. One of the reasons I joined this forum was to not only educate myself but test the strength and longeivity of certain ideas of mine.
Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2008 6:17 am Post subject: Re: Convergance and impact of issues
Hi guys,
this is my second post. I'm a lurker from way back.
Rather than post some inane rant, I thought it would be better to find a post I felt followed my views and stop it from rolling into oblivian. So, as this had now reached page 5 it was time for a rescue mission.
If the administration doesn't have a kitten, then from time to time I'll post links from other sites that relate to this post. This will be mainly to keep it active.
Dr Bang If you would prefer me to sod off, I will of course do so.
I would encourage other new bees to do the same.
To start the ball rolling, this site is well worth a visit... link
Be neither a doomer nor an optimist be. _________________ Schroedinger's mouse: a cat can't live on probability alone.
Joined: Jun 14, 2007 Posts: 152 Location: SE Qld Australia
Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 6:51 am Post subject: Re: Convergance and impact of issues
WetStuff,
You are most welcome. I would be interested in your views on how this will pan out in Australia.
One issues alone has the capacity to overrun our current govt here in Australia. Several at once will really make it interesting.
Hit me!
Dr Bang _________________ For every question , there is a lie. For every lie, there is a truth. For every truth, there is a way. And for every way, there is a time. This is the time.
Joined: Jun 13, 2007 Posts: 3862 Location: Minniesotuh
Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 9:52 am Post subject: Re: Convergance and impact of issues
Welcome (officially) to PeakOil.com, Wetstuff. Since you have been lurking for a bit, you probably know your way around the site. If you have any questions, check the COC (menu bar), the "How to find your way around this site" thread in the welcome forum, or, ask any moderator. _________________ "RRrrruuuunnnn!!!" ~Apocalypto
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