Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Joined: Aug 23, 2004 Posts: 710 Location: Frost Free in New Zealand
Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 10:13 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
Colourful
_________________ Let us make him who shall nourish and sustain us. What shall we do to be invoked; to be remembered in the earth.
We have tried with our first creatures but we could not make them venerate us.
So let us try to make obedient respectful beings who shall
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3915 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 2:11 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
When i was growing up here in southern MI we considered a storm hitting dead on the LA/TX border to be ideal, when they do that the reamnent moves up the Mississippi valley as a huge wet system bringing summer rains to help get the crops watered without irrigation.
We have not seen many of those in 2006 or 2007, and though it looks like Gustave might do it the crops are pretty much done around here now due to lack of substantial penetrating rain for about 6 weeks. Looks like we might get torrential downpours from Gustavs reamnent just in time to get the field corn wet and delay harvest. A couple weeks delay right now would put us into the fall rainy season when it gets more difficult to harvest for a month from mid Sep to mid Oct. _________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
Gustav should make landfall on Tuesday as a major category 3 hurricane somewhere in central Louisiana. The past two days of Gustav's progression and consistent model runs have helped to increase my confidence in this forecast, and I'm tempted to narrow the likely landfall area slightly to Lake Charles to Houma. The worst effects will be felt to the east of the landfall location.
For those in New Orleans - remember, the right front quadrant of storm is the most intense (think coastal Mississippi in Katrina), and the combination of the landfall location (about 50 mi to the west) and the angle of approach (from the SE) is nearing a worst-case scenario for the New Orleans area. Storm surge could be in excess of 15-20 feet. Meteorologically, this storm could (could!) be worse than Katrina for New Orleans.
He also warns that like Katrina, this is going to be a very large storm, and people far from ground zero should still be worried. _________________ "The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein
Joined: Oct 04, 2004 Posts: 5709 Location: Body in OK, Heart in TX
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 9:33 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
Gustav could turn out to be a real nightmare for GoM energy infrastructure if it doesn't weaken significantly before landfall and the current forecast or similar one verifies. The exact track and strength at landfall will matter very much for this one. Currently many of the models are forecasting a left turn near landfall - if that occurs, the timing will be crucial as far as the impact on energy:
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 9:43 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
A government meteorologist has been posting at TOD's Gustav thread. He had this to say:
Quote:
Best case is a rightward swerve into the Pensacola or further east area. Then our only losses would be due to precautionary shutdowns. I'd say that's about a 1 in 5 chance of that now.
Worst? Some of our runs based on ECMRF models yesterday were showing Gustav making a direct hit on the LOOP as a Cat 5, paralleling the coast as a fairly strong hurricane, causing damage to a lot of key leases as well as significant onshore damage to multiple refineries, then whacking Houston as a Cat2. That was knocking GOM production down to where it could only recover to 25% production after 6 months, with the LOOP down for 90 days and Houston for 30, and with rain and flooding taking down about 3 million BPD of refinery production a month or two. Odds? Less than 1 in 100, but if you want the nightmare, there it is.
_________________ "The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 9:54 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
Even if Gustav weakens at landfall, it may leave behind some killer waves if it gets to a Category 5 storm (as indicated above) - like Hurricane Ivan did. This could cause great damage to offshore energy infrastructure:
Quote:
Hurricane Spawned Biggest Waves Ever Measured, Study SaysJohn Roach
for National Geographic News
August 4, 2005
Hurricane Ivan, which struck U.S. shores September 15, 2004, kicked up the tallest, most extreme waves ever measured, scientists announced today.
At more than 90 feet (27 meters) tall from crest to trough and 600 feet (183 meters) long, the massive waves would "wipe out" a commercial fishing boat, said Douglas Mitchell. Mitchell is an oceanographer with the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory at the Stennis Space Center in Mississippi.
"Have you seen The Perfect Storm?" Mitchell said when asked to describe the extreme waves.
National Geographic _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3626 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 10:25 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
TS Ike:
Quote:
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EFFECT THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
_________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
Many Lafayette service stations sold out of gasoline Friday as motorists scrambled to fill up their vehicles ahead of Hurricane Gustav.
Advertisement
Cars and trucks filed into the Hit and Run on West Congress, one of the service stations still selling gas Friday afternoon.
Outages were observed at a nearby Chevron and more than a dozen other stations.
Don Redman, spokesman for the motorist group AAA, said the outages are the result of uncertainty surrounding Gustav. Because of the wide area that could be affected by the storm, motorists from Texas to Florida were topping off their tanks, he said.
"It's not a case of a shortage of gasoline," Redman said. "It's a case of a large number of people making a big, unexpected rush to service stations."
_________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 10:40 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
TommyJefferson wrote:
I just got back from filling my cars and cans with gasoline.
The evacuees from Beaumont are already starting to show up.
During Rita the wait at gas pumps got up to 5 hours.
The cops quit responding to 911 calls because they had no fuel.
We are better prepared this time.
Where are you in Texas? Inland, I hope. The storm could still hook left toward Houston/Galveston. _________________ "The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:02 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
They're evacuating.
traffic cam _________________ "The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein
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