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TheDude
Expert
Joined: Apr 06, 2006
Posts: 3618
Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
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 Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:34 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season |
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Production shut-in update:
US Oil, Gas Producers, Pipelines Brace for Gustav (Update1)
| Quote: | Aug. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Royal Dutch Shell Plc and BP Plc plan to finish shutting oil and gas production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico and Enbridge Energy Partners LP will close pipelines as Hurricane Gustav gains strength and moves toward the region.
Shell and BP aimed to complete the shutdown of the equivalent of 800,000 barrels a day of oil production today. Enbridge said it will halt Gulf gas shipments effective 9 a.m. local time. Oil producers have shut at least 6.6 percent of output in the Gulf of Mexico, according to U.S. government figures at midday yesterday. Shell plans to halt 510,000 barrels a day and BP said it will stop about 290,000 barrels.
Fields in the Gulf produce 1.3 million barrels a day of oil, about a quarter of U.S. production, and 7.4 billion cubic feet a day of natural gas, 14 percent of the total, government data show. Hurricane Katrina in 2005 closed 95 percent of regional offshore output and, along with Hurricane Rita, idled about 19 percent of U.S. refining capacity. |
Got Spare Capacity?
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The Dude Is Not In: Leave A Message After The Beep. |
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TonisD
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jun 12, 2007
Posts: 168
Location: Estonia
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| Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:39 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season |
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| Havana in the crosshairs of a almost Cat5 hurricane. Let's hope their building code is up to date. |
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Leanan
News Editor
Joined: May 20, 2004
Posts: 4568
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| Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:43 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season |
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He's a Category 4 now.
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"The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein |
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dohboi
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Dec 05, 2005
Posts: 1432
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| Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:47 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season |
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| Thanks for the traffic cam, leannan. Who the heck is heading into the city? And at what point do they shut off the incoming ramps to open both sides of the highway to out-going traffic? |
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Leanan
News Editor
Joined: May 20, 2004
Posts: 4568
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| Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:49 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season |
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Check out these models...
GFDL
HWRF
The latter looks an awful lot like the "nightmare scenario." Not that the first one is exactly good news...
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"The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein |
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Eli
Fusion
Joined: Jun 18, 2005
Posts: 3970
Location: In a van down by the river
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| Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:51 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season |
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It is very nice to see people taking this storm seriously.
The trends right now for this storm look terrible right now for the oil infrastructure. |
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TheDude
Expert
Joined: Apr 06, 2006
Posts: 3618
Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
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| Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:54 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season |
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New Orleans wonders: Will levees hold?
| Quote: | Levee experts and the Army Corps insist New Orleans is safer than before Katrina flooded more than 80 percent of the city on Aug. 29, 2005.
Yet the system still has severe shortcomings: Flood barriers meant only to withstand medium-strength storms, hidden layers of weak soil and navigation channels that inadvertently funnel storm surge into the city, to name a few.
"The positive thing about having any storm hit you, it will reveal any kind of frailty in the system," said J. David Rogers, an engineer at the Missouri University of Science and Technology who has tracked the construction closely. "And we shouldn't be surprised if there is frailty." |
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The Dude Is Not In: Leave A Message After The Beep. |
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Leanan
News Editor
Joined: May 20, 2004
Posts: 4568
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| Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 12:02 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season |
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| dohboi wrote: | | And at what point do they shut off the incoming ramps to open both sides of the highway to out-going traffic? |
Apparently, one thing holding them up is that the buses have to get back in. They are making round trips, taking people out and then going back and getting more.
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"The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein |
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Eli
Fusion
Joined: Jun 18, 2005
Posts: 3970
Location: In a van down by the river
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| Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 12:04 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season |
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Leanan they both look like nightmare scenarios.
The Mets at Storm2k are making the point that even if it does weaken to Cat 3 just before landfall and it is a Cat 5 in the Gulf, you still end up with a Cat 5 storm surge. That would absolutely devastate NO and a large chunk of US Gulf oil production.
He is almost a Cat 5 right now, thoughts and prayers to all those who are effected by this, and I hope everyone is getting out of the way right now.
The Levees are not designed to hold in a Cat5 storm, this time NO is on the wrong side of the storm surge. remember the devastation to the East of NO after Katrina? Towns were wiped out for hundreds of miles. Flooding rains and a 20 to 30 ft storm surge and the NO is going to be filled up again. |
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firestarter
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Mar 19, 2006
Posts: 1171
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| Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 12:18 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season |
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I was flabbergasted with the indifference oil traders exhibited on Thurs and Fri, regarding this storm. Goodness, by late Friday's trading this storm had all the earmarks of the destruction wrought by Katrina. It really makes me wonder if all the moaning about "speculators" didn't create dysfunctional, skittish behaviors that artificially kept prices down. This in turn could well leave us with more acute shortages down the road because the price mechanism is out of whack to the downside.
Sorry for the rant. back to the storm.
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Leanan
News Editor
Joined: May 20, 2004
Posts: 4568
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| Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 12:20 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season |
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| firestarter wrote: | I was flabbergasted with the indifference oil traders exhibited on Thurs and Fri, regarding this storm. Goodness, by late Friday's trading this storm had all the earmarks of the destruction wrought by Katrina. It really makes me wonder if all the moaning about "speculators" didn't create dysfunctional, skittish behaviors that artificially kept prices down. This in turn could well leave us with more acute shortages down the road because the price mechanism is out of whack to the downside.
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You may remember...the same thing happened before Katrina. Oil went down.
Nothing's changed. Oil traders are very short-sighted.
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firestarter
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Mar 19, 2006
Posts: 1171
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| Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 12:27 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season |
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Don't remember prices going down before Katrina, although I don't doubt you.
BTW, did Rita do more damage to Oil and NG infrastructure than Katrina did?
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Rohese
Coal
Joined: Jul 30, 2008
Posts: 16
Location: Oklahoma
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| Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 12:37 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season |
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Even the NHC seems taken aback by Gustav's rapid intensification.
| Quote: | 000
WTNT42 KNHC 301823
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008
SO MUCH FOR A SLOWDOWN IN THE INTENSIFICATION RATE OF GUSTAV.
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WE CONVEYED THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WAS POSSIBLE...BUT THIS IS A LITTLE MORE
THAN WHAT WE HAD IN MIND IN SUCH A SHORT TIME. |
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DantesPeak
Expert
Joined: Oct 23, 2004
Posts: 5928
Location: New Jersey
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| Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 12:44 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season |
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The Friday before Katrina, oil price increases pulled back due to many energy analysts saying the potential effects of Katrina were "over-hyped".
My memory may be wrong, but I believe the futures exchanges afterward put special rules in effect - otherwise prices would have soared out of sight. That was because deliveries couldn't be made the futures delivery points and the SPR had no electrical power to deliver emergency supplies of oil.
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firestarter
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Mar 19, 2006
Posts: 1171
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| Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 12:58 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season |
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| DantesPeak wrote: | The Friday before Katrina, oil price increases pulled back due to many energy analysts saying the potential effects of Katrina were "over-hyped".
My memory may be wrong, but I believe the futures exchanges afterward put special rules in effect - otherwise prices would have soared out of sight. That was because deliveries couldn't be made the futures delivery points and the SPR had no electrical power to deliver emergency supplies of oil. |
I know price gouging is ordinarily a bad thing, but in the case of a hurricane knocking off line untold amounts of product/infrastructure, wouldn't temporary large price spikes actually be a good thing, political grandstanding notwithstanding? Are traders hands being tied unnaturally because of the latest machinations relative to those "evil speculators" driving prices the wrong way?
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