I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 3:55 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
I'm liking this idea of a PO trip to the Carib. Rum drinks go well with disaster, I'm told.
Latest Hurricane Center discussion and path for Hanna have it heading straight for Miami and probably strengthening just as it approaches land. They admit that the model that far out is quite uncertain, but all models seem to be pointing toward land fall in Florida or Cuba. Then presumably it will enter the GOM...OMG!
Given how Gustav went from a TS to a cat 4 in a few hours, I would say anything could happen with Hanna. Maybe we'll see the destruction of two major American cities within a few days...just as McCain/Palin and chums are toasting themselves.
My understanding is that traditionally it was thought that when one hurricane crosses an area, it draws up and cools off all or most of the hot surface water, pulling the cooler water below up to the surface. So in the past when one hurricane followed another over the same waters, the second was generally much less intense.
But I read somewhere (can't find it now) that these days much of the GOM water is hot all the way down so this convective action just draws up more well heated water from below for the next 'cane to draw power from. Has anyone heard anything on this?
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 4:16 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
The eyewall of Gustav on the northeast side is going to pass practically directly over downtown Havana. There will BE no downtown Havana left in a few hours. That city is going to be FLATTENNED. I hope you have laid in a good supply of Stogies, we definitely are seeing Peak Cigars here.
The track hasn't varied to much extent since I first noticed Gus spinning up, slightly to the left of NO now but worse in that its basically dead on for the LOOP and the storm surge will be tremendous around NO. Remember, its not just the wind speed of the hurricane that determines the size of the surge, its the fetch and duration as well. Gus is entering the Gulf ALREADY as a strong CAT 4 with a large diameter of hurricane force winds. The fetch across to NO is the whole distance of the gulf, and Gus is going to be pushing surface water for a solid 2 days here. You are looking at a storm surge in the NE quadrant on the high side of a 15-30' spread. I can see no way NO will not go completely under, in this case I think even the French Quarter goes under, at least briefly though it will self drain being above sea level.
Hanna is right behind, still uncertain what kind of power she will attain, but based on how Gus bombed, one has to suspect Hanna will do the same once she nears the former site of Havana.
Joined: Apr 13, 2005 Posts: 3149 Location: St.Louis, Mo
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 4:20 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
The worst case scenario would be for Hanna to enter the GOM and disrupt the oil platforms. Back to backers could really shut in oil production for a while. With gasoline inventories already low, I would like to know how this would effect them ? Even without Hanna, I am concerned.
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 4:23 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
It gets worse. A bad hit to the Gulf Coast might mean we can't get the oil out of the SPR. Since that's where it is. _________________ "The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 4:36 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
Meteorologist Chuck Watson said:
Quote:
Speaking of storm surge and damage, we're showing 25ft peak surge and around $15 Billion in onshore damage if the levees hold, $47 Billion if they don't. I'm voting they will if landfall is on the current track, but a few more miles east and unfortunately NOLA will be a bathtub again.
_________________ "The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 5:08 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
Leanan wrote:
Meteorologist Chuck Watson said:
Quote:
Speaking of storm surge and damage, we're showing 25ft peak surge and around $15 Billion in onshore damage if the levees hold, $47 Billion if they don't. I'm voting they will if landfall is on the current track, but a few more miles east and unfortunately NOLA will be a bathtub again.
If the Prof Mets say 25', I'll say 30' So far, the pros have been underestimating all the way, I suspect in an effort to keep everybody "calm". Even with 25' though, I can't see how Chuck votes for the Levees holding? Besides this, at the speed Gus is moving now, there just won't be that much time for the wind speeds to diminish on land approach. So if you assume (as seems likely to me now) that Gus hits CAT5, even 100 miles out from the center you probably have CAT3 wind speeds, and besides that out there he will drop a prodigious amount of rainfall as well. How do the levees hold in this scenario?
Anyhow, NO going under isn't really the problem, what I am most curious about now is how the Evac is going to work. Reading on Storm2K, information about evacuations in places like Houma is not being provided to the residents, and already gas stations are running short on fuel thoughout the area. Even assuming they bus the folks out of all these places, they really have shelters for all of them set up this fast? Clearly they aren't making the same mistake of putting 10,000 people in the Superdome but are trying to disperse out the refugees. This keeps the Media from focusing down on one Hell Hole, but it seems to me what you are looking at is 100 smaller hell holes sprinkled around the area. Power is going to go down, fresh water supplies will be thin in the area, and the Government really is going to get bottled water to all these makeshift shelters?
The Government is telling NO people to get out, but this storm is going to produce devastation along a huge section of coastline here, and power outages throughout the region. I suspect the media will be caught flatfooted reporting the story around NO, when the real story is happenning elsewhere.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 5:17 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
Armageddon wrote:
The worst case scenario would be for Hanna to enter the GOM and disrupt the oil platforms. Back to backers could really shut in oil production for a while. With gasoline inventories already low, I would like to know how this would effect them ? Even without Hanna, I am concerned.
If you followed the Weekly Inventory thread, you'll know I've posted for two weeks now that shortages are already showing up in the upper Midwest. There are two primary reasons: refiners are putting out less than they had been and - surprisingly if you read major media reports - gasoline and diesel demand (combined) lately is just about the same as last year. The shortages show up first in points most remote from refineries.
After Katrina, it took an IEA emergency decree authorizing the shipment of a great amount of imports from the strategic supplies of gasoline in Europe to keep the US gasoline distribution system functioning. I am not sure if those supplies were ever fully replaced in Europe, but I don't think so.
The bottom line is, as of now, this will be worse than Katrina in regards to its effects on gasoline supplies. I look for the Department of Energy to allocate oil/gasoline supplies based upon soon to be obtained emergency powers. There is a small chance that futures trading could even be suspended temporarily while supplies are reallocated. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 5:22 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
Jeff Lindner, a Houston meteorologist, has talked a bit about how they are handling fuel shortages. They are pushing tons of fuel into the system (at the expense of the rest of the country, no doubt). The feds are sending fuel trucks out along the evacuation routes to help. Shortages are only sporadic, not nearly as bad as last time. _________________ "The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 5:37 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
Leanan wrote:
Jeff Lindner, a Houston meteorologist, has talked a bit about how they are handling fuel shortages. They are pushing tons of fuel into the system (at the expense of the rest of the country, no doubt). The feds are sending fuel trucks out along the evacuation routes to help. Shortages are only sporadic, not nearly as bad as last time.
Well, in order to keep re-supply to the gas stations going right now, they have not yet directed all traffic outward from the areas. This also because the buses they are using are making multiple trips in and out to pick up more people. What this means is that the people they are picking up are not being moved very far inland, maybe to Baton Rouge in the case of NO?
Full scale evac isn't happening yet, I suspect Sunday Morning to see Peak Traffic in the area, and it would be miraculous if they could keep all the gas stations on the evac routes supplied, while still allowing for the outflow of traffic. The uncertainty of precisely where Gus will hit, and how far inland he brings down the Hammer means that quite a few large population centers have to consider evacuation right now, Beaumont, TX, Lafayette, Lake Charles and Baton Rouge all probably should be evacuated. That whole section of the I-10 is built on very low ground, northward migration isn't very easy because there is not good road structure to go North-South around there, which means the East-West flow on the I-10 has to back up here at some point. Which way do you GO though?
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 6:06 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
I know this forum tends to produce a lot of doom and gloom and generally I enjoy reading the doomer porn but I think you guys have little ahead of yourselves on this one. I have been watching Hurricanes for 20 years now I can tell you this will not be another Katrina/Rita. Cat 5 storms don't last very long even over open warm waters. If Gustav is hitting Cat 5 now it means by the time it crosses over Cuba and it will have weakened to at least a Cat 3. Just like a lot of natural processes Hurricanes have life cycle they go through. Cat 5 status only lasts 18 to 24 hours even in record breaking storms. Gustav is peaking Now and will be much weaker by the time it hits land. Hurricanes Opal and Ivan did the same thing that they were very strong at sea but lost a lot of their potency as they came towards land.
The dangerous storms are the ones that Peak just as they are hitting land like Camile, Hugo. Andrew, and Katrina. Gustav's Cuba land fall will be the one to remember.
Joined: Apr 17, 2005 Posts: 2750 Location: Vancouver Island
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 6:15 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
If I remember correctly Ivan did far more damage to the oil infrastructure then Katrina did. powerful at sea is probably worse then on shore when it comes to oil. _________________ shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 6:31 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
The Cuban meteorological chief reported 196 mph with 212 mph gusts before the equipment was destroyed.
Gustav rolled over Cuba like a speed bump and is now headed for the center of the gulf. This thing has a better chance of hitting the gulf coast as a cat 4 than the 2005 storms. _________________ "I eat the pretzel, it get stuck in the throat and I pass out..." - George W Bush
March 7, 2007 Remarks by the President to Political Appointees
Last edited by gw on Sat Aug 30, 2008 6:34 pm; edited 1 time in total
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So far, the pros have been underestimating all the way, I suspect in an effort to keep everybody "calm". Even with 25' though, I can't see how Chuck votes for the Levees holding? Besides this, at the speed Gus is moving now, there just won't be that much time for the wind speeds to diminish on land approach. So if you assume (as seems likely to me now) that Gus hits CAT5, even 100 miles out from the center you probably have CAT3 wind speeds, and besides that out there he will drop a prodigious amount of rainfall as well. How do the levees hold in this scenario?
