Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 6:32 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
ReverseEngineer wrote:
Full scale evac isn't happening yet, I suspect Sunday Morning to see Peak Traffic in the area, and it would be miraculous if they could keep all the gas stations on the evac routes supplied, while still allowing for the outflow of traffic. The uncertainty of precisely where Gus will hit, and how far inland he brings down the Hammer means that quite a few large population centers have to consider evacuation right now, Beaumont, TX, Lafayette, Lake Charles and Baton Rouge all probably should be evacuated. That whole section of the I-10 is built on very low ground, northward migration isn't very easy because there is not good road structure to go North-South around there, which means the East-West flow on the I-10 has to back up here at some point. Which way do you GO though?
Reverse Engineer
From the Storm2K Website:
Storm2K wrote:
I saw on the news at 10 pm here in Houston that a lot of LA residents are already leaving and heading into TX causing traffic jam on I-10. I thought LA evacs were to go north this time. I would presume since no mandatory has started in LA and some are panicing there is no directing of the evacuees at this time and that may be what is causing the traffic jam.
Nooooooo - it's horrible just getting everyone here out. Go north, everyone.
Its only Saturday and its already falling apart. The north-south evac corridors are only available to a few locations. the East-West folks in the middle of the storm path don't know which way to go. No matter which way they go, they don't really have a good idea of where they might shelter when the storm hits.
All the evac plans get messed up by that peculiarity that drivers have of geting in accidents or the peculiarity that cars have of breaking down. When you put so many on the road at once, statistics tell you that its almost inevitable you plug up somewhere. For those packing up their cars, you have to think about the possibility you get stuck out on the road when Gus makes landfall. Pick a solid bridge to park under, and PRAY.
One time as I was driving across Tornado Alley down in TX in my Freightliner, I saw a Funnel Cloud in my Rear View mirror. There was a rest area by pure chance 5 miles up the road, I put the pedal to the metal and I found a spot between two other big rigs. The Tornado didn't hit us, but it came mighty close, and the Hail hitting my windshield cracked it and the truck shook for 30 minutes straight, I was terrified. When it passed, I got out of the rig and 3 of the other trucks with half empty trailers were flipped. I had a full load of Paper, 40,000 lbs worth of it. My truck did not flip.
Out on those roads, if there are any rigs out there when the wind speeds pick up, they will flip. Those roads won't be passable for a while.
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 6:36 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
Novus wrote:
I know this forum tends to produce a lot of doom and gloom and generally I enjoy reading the doomer porn but I think you guys have little ahead of yourselves on this one. I have been watching Hurricanes for 20 years now I can tell you this will not be another Katrina/Rita. Cat 5 storms don't last very long even over open warm waters. If Gustav is hitting Cat 5 now it means by the time it crosses over Cuba and it will have weakened to at least a Cat 3. Just like a lot of natural processes Hurricanes have life cycle they go through. Cat 5 status only lasts 18 to 24 hours even in record breaking storms. Gustav is peaking Now and will be much weaker by the time it hits land. Hurricanes Opal and Ivan did the same thing that they were very strong at sea but lost a lot of their potency as they came towards land.
The dangerous storms are the ones that Peak just as they are hitting land like Camile, Hugo. Andrew, and Katrina. Gustav's Cuba land fall will be the one to remember.
Katrina was a 3 when it hit Louisiana even though it had been a 5 in the gulf. According to wikipedia, "Hugo reached its peak intensity while several hundred miles to the east of Puerto Rico". You could be right about Camille & Andrew, but bear in mind that the interest of this site is skewed towards the offshore energy infrastructure and the potential hurricane destruction there.
Also, the current models for Gustav show a rapid intensification as it hits warm waters in the gulf after passing Cuba. Of course, these could be wrong, but if they are correct Gustav will peak in the Gulf of Mexico.
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 6:56 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
picked this up from a sports message board. the poster is from biloxi.
Quote:
Well people are already going into frantic mode here.
Yesterday at Home Depot there was a line leading all the way to the back of the store of people waiting on a truck to arrive that was supposedly delivering generators. Home Depot had to call in for police help due to fights breaking out because of people cutting in line or whatever.
Today as I was leaving the gas station, I almost got into 2 accidents because of cars flying into the parking lot at about 30mph.
Its actually kind of funny to watch how easy people lose their composure around here the days leading up to a hurricane.
Joined: Apr 13, 2005 Posts: 3206 Location: St.Louis, Mo
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 6:56 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
"Most" GOM hurricanes decrease before they hit landfall. The water is shallower and cooler. But, like Katrina, they still bring in a huge storm surge, and that's where the catastrophic damage occurs. Gustav will probably hit CAT 5 strength, then weaken to a CAT 3-4 when it hits landfall also. Andrew was an Atlantic hurricane and went through an unusual eyewall replacement right before landfall. That's why he was upgraded later on to a CAT 5. The conditions for Gustav look very good and will be a major hurricane at landfall.
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 7:03 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
New Orleans mayor Nagin just called this the "Storm of the Century", "Mother of All Storms", "you need to be scared". predicting 100mph winds in Baton Rouge.
Says will hit at cat4 (at least) vs Katrina cat3.
Footprint 900 miles and growing, vs Katrina 300 miles.
Chief of police: "Could be the most horrifying thing that ever hit this country."
I don't know if these guys are playing things up so that they don't get blamed of being caught flat footed, but they sound grim.
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 7:05 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
Mandatory evacuations begin as Gustav draws near
updated 35 minutes ago
BATON ROUGE, Louisiana (CNN) -- Authorities began ordering mandatory evacuations along Louisiana and Mississippi's Gulf Coast on Saturday as Hurricane Gustav roared past Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico.
"They made it very clear that this storm could be as bad as it gets," Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal said Saturday afternoon of the Category 4 storm, with sustained winds that reached 150 mph. "We could see flooding even worse than we saw in Hurricane Katrina."
Thousands of people had begun fleeing the coast by the time a hurricane watch was issued Saturday afternoon for southeastern Texas to the Alabama-Florida border as Gustav pursued a projected path toward the U.S. Gulf Coast.
The watch, which means hurricane conditions are possible within 36 hours, was announced the day after many in the region marked the third anniversary of Katrina's landfall.
LINK _________________ Live simply, love generously, care deeply, and speak kindly.
Life isn't about waiting for the storm to pass;
It's about learning how to dance in the rain.
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 7:22 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
nobodypanic wrote:
picked this up from a sports message board. the poster is from biloxi.
Quote:
Well people are already going into frantic mode here.
Yesterday at Home Depot there was a line leading all the way to the back of the store of people waiting on a truck to arrive that was supposedly delivering generators. Home Depot had to call in for police help due to fights breaking out because of people cutting in line or whatever.
Today as I was leaving the gas station, I almost got into 2 accidents because of cars flying into the parking lot at about 30mph.
Its actually kind of funny to watch how easy people lose their composure around here the days leading up to a hurricane.
What folks tend to forget is that although Katrina made landfall around NO, the effects in the upper right quadrant due to storm surge were enormous. Not only Biloxi, but Mobile, AL also got innundated with storm surge.
Gus has a longer fetch than Katrina did, based on the track its taking. Its also spun up to Cat4 sooner, and its still bound direct over the warmest waters in the Gulf. The footprint as noted is almost certain to be quite a bit larger than Katrina, meaning the Hurricane force winds extend out further from the center. Basicaly, this geometrically increases the amount of water Gus will push along the surface in the northeast quadrant. Every coastal city to the east of the eye for a good 300 miles will see an enormous storm surge here.
Ray Nagin isn't quite right calling Gus "the Mother of All Storms". Gus is the FATHER of all storms. Lets get the gender right at least
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 2018 Location: Australia
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 7:44 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
Anyone knows of any good webcams that can capture the storm and will stay on as Gustav makes a landfall in US?
Most of the cameras seem to be taken down or offline before a storm hits. _________________ It's not a bailout, it's a buy-in" - Nancy Pelosi
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 8:57 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
From Chuck Watson at TOD :
Quote:
Extensive damage and an extended recovery time probably measured in months. The pipelines to shore are probably in a lot of trouble on this trajectory due to scour.
He thinks it's going to be really bad for oil pipelines, and really, really bad for New Orleans. His prediction has Gustav making landfall just west of NOLA. _________________ "The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 9:09 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
frankthetank wrote:
Whats the forecast for the number of oil rigs that are going to be destroyed in the next 48hrs?
For Katrina and Rita, the U.S. Minerals Management Service reported that the hurricanes totally destroyed 113 offshore oil platforms.
Here's some current information on evacuations from Gustav.
Quote:
Workers were evacuated from a total of 223 production platforms by Saturday morning, equivalent to 31.1% of the 717 manned platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, the MMS said.
“Personnel from 45 rigs have also been evacuated: this is equivalent to 37.2 % of the 121 rigs currently operating in the Gulf,” the MMS said.
“From the operators’ reports, it is estimated that approximately 76.77 % of the oil production in the Gulf has been shut in,” the MMS said, amounting to 998,021 bbl/day.
About 37.16% of the natural gas production in the Gulf has been shut in, amounting to 2.75bn cubic feet/day, the MMS said.
Joined: Oct 04, 2004 Posts: 5709 Location: Body in OK, Heart in TX
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 9:12 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
Here is a map I made with Digital Atmosphere showing the forecast path overlaid on oil infrastructure and current weather.
Newer infrastructure is darker gray/black. Only active platforms and pipes are shown. I will update it with current radar, weather plots, and forecast as Gustav approaches. _________________ "Every junkie's like a setting sun..." - Neil Young
Last edited by Shannymara on Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:07 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 9:16 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
frankthetank wrote:
Whats the forecast for the number of oil rigs that are going to be destroyed in the next 48hrs?
Based on trajectory, the wind speeds and the surge, any of the rigs in about a 30 mile radius of the eye are sure to suffer extreme damage, even if they can hold to their moorings. Looking at the maps of rig placements, the eye wall size as it might be in Cat 4 scenario, I would say that you could see as much as 10% of the rigs lifted right off their moorings and disappearing completely. 30% or more of the rigs with extreme damage such as not to be operational for months.
You really cannot predict exactly what kind of wave action might work itself up here, what the period will be between the waves or how big the troguhs are between the waves. With a long fetch like this, you start with a long period between the waves, but as the ground below becomes more shallow, you see a pickup in peirodicity and then a pickup in amplitude as well. If you get a wave action with more than about 50' between peak and trough, almost any rig would be lifted off its moorings, in any event it would list so much from side to side the stresses on the rig would break it up anyhow.
Normally the gulf doesn't have fetch or energy enough to develop such large wave actions, you only see them down in the Roaring 40s, across the fetch of the southern ocean south of the Cape of Good Hope and Cape Horn. With a Cat 4 starting this far up in the Gulf though, with wind speeds this high, you could have comparable wave action develop. Remains to be seen how it works itself up.
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