Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 10:25 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
Very cool, Shanny. I've bookmarked it.
The 11pm update looks like it's swinging east more.
It really looks like the worst-case scenario for New Orleans. Apparently, they're evacuating parts of the state they usually don't evacuate.
Matt Simmons sent this message, which was posted at TOD:
Quote:
LOOP is the only facility in the Gulf to unload VLCC tankers which carry over 2 million barrels of crude. They can in theory be "litered" by unloading onto smaller tankers that can make it into the Gulf Coast ports but this is very lenghty timing and the spare capacity of these smaller tankers is slim.
We get about 1.2 million b/d +/- 10% of crude imports through Loop.
Scary, if Chuck is right and the LOOP is down for months. _________________ "The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein
Joined: Oct 04, 2004 Posts: 5709 Location: Body in OK, Heart in TX
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 10:33 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
Leanan wrote:
Very cool, Shanny. I've bookmarked it.
Thanks. I will let you know when we start the script to auto-update it. The URL may change at that time.
I don't think I'm going to get as much sleep as I'd like this weekend. I can't stop watching this storm.
Reading posts on storm2k from the people signing off to evacuate New Orleans is sad. _________________ "Every junkie's like a setting sun..." - Neil Young
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 10:34 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
I think this hurricane will be pretty much be a non-event even if it hits as a major hurricane, IF (and only if) the forecast is correct and the landfall happens in the unpopulated swamps of southwestern Louisiana.
Oil will go up a few dollars, some rigs will be disabled, some places will get flooded but other than that it will hit an unpopulated area and won't be a big deal.
Joined: Apr 13, 2005 Posts: 3223 Location: St.Louis, Mo
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 10:42 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
lotrfan55345 wrote:
I think this hurricane will be pretty much be a non-event even if it hits as a major hurricane, IF (and only if) the forecast is correct and the landfall happens in the unpopulated swamps of southwestern Louisiana.
Oil will go up a few dollars, some rigs will be disabled, some places will get flooded but other than that it will hit an unpopulated area and won't be a big deal.
The amount of rigs and platforms Gus is going to wipe out is going to make this a BIG event. I have a feeling it is going to be bigger than one can imagine. Plus, the hurricane season has a long way to go and the conditions are favorable for more.
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 10:45 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
lotrfan55345 wrote:
I think this hurricane will be pretty much be a non-event even if it hits as a major hurricane, IF (and only if) the forecast is correct and the landfall happens in the unpopulated swamps of southwestern Louisiana.
Oil will go up a few dollars, some rigs will be disabled, some places will get flooded but other than that it will hit an unpopulated area and won't be a big deal.
Can I quote you on this on Tuesday?
Its ALREADY not a "non-event". ALREADY its costing millions of dollars a day in evacuations off the oil rigs, even assuming they aren't lifted off their moorings and dissappear by Tuesday.
There is no such THING as a depopulated area of swamp on the I-10 between New Orleans and Houston. Oil Refineries, storage tanks, the WORKS are all down there. Plenty of people live there. Even if NO doesn't get flooded, the power grid there is going down for quite some time, and the oil supply and refinement are already clearly disrupted. How on EARTH could you see this as a "non-event"? What Planet are you living on?
I edited my earlier post to reflect the new link. Please update your bookmark, Leanan.
This is kind of experimental, so please don't be too surprised if the script breaks and it stops updating in the middle of the night. We'll try to keep it going, though. If it seems broken please feel free to PM me. It should update about every 10 minutes. _________________ "Every junkie's like a setting sun..." - Neil Young
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 2604 Location: South of Atlanta
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:58 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
If this track plays out with a Grand Isle/ LOOP hit anything CAT 3 or better it's the nuclear scenario for gasoline supply disruption. Most of the models have little weakening towards landfall. Its coming in at a different angle to the coast than Katrina and the worst possible landfall for the NO area and oil/gas infrastructure.
I filled up EVERYTHING tonight. Gas prices in GA up 10 cents today.
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 12:16 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
Just look at the area of Gustav's forecasted landfall. There are large areas of swamp for the storm to weaken before it hits any majorly developed areas.
The highest wind gust reported at Havana's airport was 58mph.
It will be like Andrew's second landfall in Louisiana, which was damaging, yes, but only 7,000 people had to be evacuated and it wasn't too big of a deal, especially compared to Andrew's 1st landfall in Miami and Katrina.
The biggest impact it will make will be on the oil rigs, which is only a temporary disruption.
The use of the word 'non-event' was a bit too much, but this won't be Katrina II, or even another Ivan in terms of impact.
Last edited by lotrfan55345 on Sun Aug 31, 2008 12:20 am; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Apr 16, 2008 Posts: 121 Location: Western PA, USA
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 12:18 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
I wonder if this could be the ultimate "black swan" that causes the stock market to plunge, as oil surges, and financials tank? The only reason the market has held up is because oil prices fell from 147 to 115. Imagine what would happen if oil raced up to 130 or higher in short order...
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 2604 Location: South of Atlanta
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 12:27 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
lotrfan55345 wrote:
The use of the word 'non-event' was a bit too much, but this won't be Katrina II, or even another Ivan in terms of impact.
I do not believe you have any clue how this can and may differ significantly from Katrina in both track and intensity. Your statement proves this. The angle and point of possible landfall at the moment are paramount in how this is going to differ if they verify.
The only way you are right is if many pro meteorologists, models, and storm analysis/climatolgy is far off base. That fact is being downplayed to avoid panic. Already the evac plans appear to be falling into chaos.
This EASILY has potential to be far worse than Katrina. Lets hope though your right, but at the moment its the outlying probability.
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 12:48 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
Forney2008 wrote:
I wonder if this could be the ultimate "black swan" that causes the stock market to plunge, as oil surges, and financials tank? The only reason the market has held up is because oil prices fell from 147 to 115. Imagine what would happen if oil raced up to 130 or higher in short order...
Since Monday is Labor Day and a National Holiday, we will have to wait until Tuesday to get the initial market reaction. It will depend a lot on what the actual landfall does in terms of observable (in the MEDIA) damage. If NO is under water, this will cause some panic in the markets, but not outrageous. If however a SuperTanker offloading oil at the LOOP is shown to be thrown up on shore and spilling oil all over the place, or if some Oil Rig is shown to be being tossed off its moorings and sinking in the gulf, one would expect this would cause some of the oil traders to think twice.
If it is the Worst Case Scenario, I cannot possibly see how the markets can stand up. However, you will quickly see Controls being placed down to prevent an instant melt down. Question would be how well such controls can function with so much pressure in the financial markets. People holding large positions they know are not sustainable will want to sell, Sell , SELL. You will no doubt here the word "SELL" miles off the trading floor.
Joined: May 23, 2004 Posts: 201 Location: Charlottesville, Virginia
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 1:06 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
Ten mins ago I was watching the infrared sat and the eye just colapsed. The weather underground map is not showing this. Might be the start of an eye replacement cycle.
edit: infrared just updated again. No eye. Something is happening. Unlikely it would just fall apart over the open gulf in the absence of any shear.
Last edited by Ardalla on Sun Aug 31, 2008 1:30 am; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 1:16 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
lotrfan55345 wrote:
I think this hurricane will be pretty much be a non-event even if it hits as a major hurricane, IF (and only if) the forecast is correct and the landfall happens in the unpopulated swamps of southwestern Louisiana.
Oil will go up a few dollars, some rigs will be disabled, some places will get flooded but other than that it will hit an unpopulated area and won't be a big deal.
Lol dude you are in a fantasy land...
NOAA projected path.....
Weather.com projected path
Each of the yellow dots represents an oil platform.
If it hits and disables these platforms and refineries.... I believe we could see $5 per gallon of gas and possibly shortages nationwide.
I already have 25 gallons in gas cans and full tanks on all the vehicles, should last weeks if I need to, if I run out though its no biggie, I will just ride my bike and/or take the bus if I can _________________ Tired of high gas prices? Then stop driving to work, duh..... Learn to Work from home
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Then stop driving to work, duh..... 
