Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 1:20 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
AirlinePilot wrote:
lotrfan55345 wrote:
The use of the word 'non-event' was a bit too much, but this won't be Katrina II, or even another Ivan in terms of impact.
I do not believe you have any clue how this can and may differ significantly from Katrina in both track and intensity. Your statement proves this. The angle and point of possible landfall at the moment are paramount in how this is going to differ if they verify.
The only way you are right is if many pro meteorologists, models, and storm analysis/climatolgy is far off base. That fact is being downplayed to avoid panic. Already the evac plans appear to be falling into chaos.
This EASILY has potential to be far worse than Katrina. Lets hope though your right, but at the moment its the outlying probability.
Gustav has a smaller wind radii than Katrina, and it's maximum storm surge (around the Lake Pontchartrain area due to the angle you mentioned) is expected to be around 13-15 feet. Katrina's storm surge was 28 feet. Katrina's eye was less than 10 miles from NOLA, Gustav's eye is predicted to be a good 60+ miles from NOLA.
In it's current foretasted trajectory, I don't see it being anything like Katrina due to it's landfall in the sparsely populated swampland of southern Louisiana (and thus distance from NOLA), it's smaller forecasted wind radii and lower forecasted storm surge.
In the end though, we don't have *any* clue as to where Gustav will eventually end up and what impact it will have, and yes this (any storm really) could be worse than Katrina.
Arguing over this is baisically a moot point though, since I can virtually guarantee that Gustav won't follow the current forecasted path. It could go west and hit Houston, or it NOLA directly, who knows.
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 1:21 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
Ardalla wrote:
Ten mins ago I was watching the infrared sat and the eye just colapsed. The weather underground map is not showing this. Might be the start of an eye replacement cycle.
Crossing over any land mass distrubs an eyewall. To exist it has to be directly over water. It can only last over land for about as long as it lasted over Cuba.
To look at the fundamentals of this system, look at the feeder bands, not the eye right now. Its dragging in moisture right across florida. It would stop developing as a Hurricane if it ran out of energy to keep pumping up the water its dragging in Its not going to run out of energy, because its going to hit a GOLD MINE of energy in about 4 hours at its current speed. This ups the convection and ups the spin.
Cat 5 by the time I wake up tomorrow, with a new eyewall.
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 1:23 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
lotrfan55345 wrote:
Gustav has a smaller wind radii than Katrina, and it's maximum storm surge (around the Lake Pontchartrain area due to the angle you mentioned) is expected to be around 13-15 feet. Katrina's storm surge was 28 feet. Katrina's eye was less than 10 miles from NOLA, Gustav's eye is predicted to be a good 60+ miles from NOLA.
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 1:30 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
lotrfan55345 wrote:
Arguing over this is baisically a moot point though, since I can virtually guarantee that Gustav won't follow the current forecasted path. It could go west and hit Houston, or it NOLA directly, who knows.
What is the basis for this "guarantee"? So far, it has followed the forecasted path to 90% accuracy, eveReven 5 days out which is pretty long temr hurricane forecasting. There is no major disturbance to take it off this path, and its moving quickly so it has a lot of inertia. It almost cannot go anywhere else other than where it is forecast to go now.
Its gonna hit south central louisiana, and hit hard. its going to hit the oil rigs. Its not a question of "if" there will be damage, just how MUCH damage.
You think the damage will be marginal, I gather? I'll bet otherwise, to the tune of $1000. Take my bet?
Joined: Jul 04, 2008 Posts: 242 Location: Europe: European Historian
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 1:30 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
Its said now to be slightly heading West.....possibly missing NOLA.
I wouldn't say this is a non-event. It has all the makings to be a CAT 5 on landfall. This will indeed wreck lots of havoc on the energy infastructors in its path.
I think this will be something on par with Rita "3 years ago" in the aftermath.
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 2:02 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
As I understand from looking at the heat map of GoM - Gustav has 12-14 hours of superheated water ahead and must make its game in that timeframe? After that, its 20 hours to landfall.
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 6:31 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
There is no doubt that Gus is going to hit the oil infrastructure hard. With gasoline inventories as low as they are, LOI is probably not more than 11 mb away. It will take at least 2mb to evacuate and get people along the Gulf Coast prepared. The chances of shortages showing up in the after math on the East Coast, as a consequence, is very high. Europe can not come to the rescue for another 2-3 weeks.
With our economy on life support, the losses from this leviathan are going to hit hard. My greatest concern in the long run is that an insurance company which has been already been hit by the credit crunch will default as a result of the huge potential losses. Coupled with the million or so individuals and business that could go belly up as a result of the gasoline shortages for a few weeks, and there could be the making of the perfect storm. After producing havoc in the financial markets, a major unraveling for the entire country might occur.
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 6:36 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
Gail at TOD has been banging that drum for awhile.
A lot of banks are on the brink. They won't be able to offer the "mortgage holidays" they offered after Katrina. And if people can't pay, the banks will go under. _________________ "The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 6:56 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
She better start picking up steam soon, given her outer bands are already encountering land to the north. It's looking like there's a possibility that a mild Cat 4 is as bad as it's going to get. Still, the water's hot down there. I'm not as sure about the upper level winds being favorable for anything like a Cat 5. Wonder if a major Cat3 or a minor Cat 4 will do much in damage to the rigs and platforms? _________________ Civilization: the biosphere's skin disease
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 6:58 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
Pressure is dropping again, however the time to intensify is almost over too. Cat5 is now out of the question, however a Cat3-4 on landfall is still on the game. Which is bad.
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 6:59 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
Oh, and NO looks like it's going swimming again no matter what. If she goes under once more, it's time to officially make the flood plain uninhabitable by humans. _________________ Civilization: the biosphere's skin disease
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 7:00 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
firestarter wrote:
Oh, and NO looks like it's going swimming again no matter what. If she goes under once more, it's time to officially make the flood plain uninhabitable by humans.
The current track takes Gustav exactly over the NO. So yeah, time to call that city a lost cause.
Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 3342 Location: Resiliency Farm
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 7:01 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
firestarter wrote:
She better start picking up steam soon, given her outer bands are already encountering land to the north. It's looking like there's a possibility that a mild Cat 4 is as bad as it's going to get. Still, the water's hot down there. I'm not as sure about the upper level winds being favorable for anything like a Cat 5. Wonder if a major Cat3 or a minor Cat 4 will do much in damage to the rigs and platforms?
We have 24 hours and there is a lot of water to go over yet (hotter and colder).
_________________ “It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him.”
J.R.R. Tolkien
"The time has come for men to act like men; and for women, well, to act a lot more like men."
-Ma Cur
Joined: Jul 04, 2008 Posts: 242 Location: Europe: European Historian
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 7:07 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
I wouldnt say it wont be a CAT 5 on landing..remember Katherina was lower at this time then Gus is.
Also it does now appear that NO is right in Gustavs path "i was expecting it to hit to the west of NO by about 15-20 miles" but as the up to date images show NOLA is on a head on collision with Gustav.
Even if NO is misses she is going to get lots of water!!!
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 7:08 am Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
Wisc, Except for the small cold eddy it looks like the NW path is primarily over warm water. It seems like the storm has more wobble to it than Katrina or Rita--perhaps because of the speed of the storm? Eyeballing a several hour loop seems to show it heading more toward Houston, before landfall, but maybe the overlay at Accuweather is faulty. _________________ Civilization: the biosphere's skin disease
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