I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 5:23 pm Post subject: Re: Oil companies evacuate Gulf workers as Gustav looms
RedStateGreen wrote:
Did they not do this with Katrina? My cousin's husband works for Exxon, and they were all evacuated to Houston the day before Katrina hit.
I don't think the problem with Katrina was getting people evacuated from offshore in time - they did do it in time. The problem was getting them back, with the appropiate equipment.
More detailed plans now have personnel brought back further from the coast, with more emergency repair equipment available. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 5:34 pm Post subject: Re: Oil companies evacuate Gulf workers as Gustav looms
Quote:
Gulf Coast Energy Companies In Shutdown Not Seen Since 2005 By RUSSELL GOLD and ANA CAMPOY 30 Aug 2008 7:19 p.m.
As Hurricane Gustav rapidly intensified Saturday, the Gulf Coast energy infrastructure responded by going into a full-scale shut down not seen since 2005.
Almost all of the offshore oil and natural gas facilities were expected to be evacuated and no longer producing by Sunday morning. At least four large Louisiana refineries were also being shuttered, representing 5% of U.S. capacity to turn crude oil into gasoline and other petroleum products. Many pipeline systems also been turned off. A massive offshore port and entryway for crude oil from the Middle East and Africa stopped taking new tankers.
"We are looking at Gustav right now as a very significant storm," says Mickey Driver, a Chevron Corp. spokesman. "We are making preparations for worst-case scenarios."
The shut downs mean that Gustav's effects are sure to linger for days, even if the storm weakens before landfall and does minimal damage. It takes time to shut down the massive complex of offshore platforms, pipelines, processing plants and refineries, and more time to restart them. The Gulf Coast energy industry will likely remain largely out of service well into next week.
WSJ _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 2577 Location: South of Atlanta
Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:47 pm Post subject: Re: Oil companies evacuate Gulf workers as Gustav looms
Rabbit,
If Gustav does what some are starting to see, it may just wipe the LOOP right off the map along with a bunch of other very important infrastructure/pipeline. It's bad short term for oil to be sure, but this is appearing to be a possible nightmare event with gasoline at the moment.
Im actually not hugely worried about oil for the moment, but this could really do a number on gasoline which has no easy, nor quick solution.
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 7:10 am Post subject: Re: Oil companies evacuate Gulf workers as Gustav looms
AirlinePilot wrote:
Rabbit, Im actually not hugely worried about oil for the moment, but this could really do a number on gasoline which has no easy, nor quick solution.
Directly affected refineries:
Westlake Conoco: 247,000 bbl/day
St Charles Valero: 260,000
Norco Motiva: 242,000
Meraux Murphy: 125,000
Garyville Marathon: 245,000
Convent Motiva: 255,000
Chalmette Exxon: 183,000
Belle Chasse Conoco: 250,000
And possible getting some remaining cat 1/2 and tornadoes:
Baton Rouge Exxon: 494,000
Almost assuredly all of those first eight are evacuated now. They add up to about 10% of the nation's refinery capacity. _________________ At 1% annual growth, human bodies will incorporate every gram in the observable universe in approximately 10,170 years.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 9:18 am Post subject: Re: Oil companies evacuate Gulf workers as Gustav looms
AirlinePilot wrote:
Rabbit, If Gustav does what some are starting to see, it may just wipe the LOOP right off the map along with a bunch of other very important infrastructure/pipeline. It's bad short term for oil to be sure, but this is appearing to be a possible nightmare event with gasoline at the moment. Im actually not hugely worried about oil for the moment, but this could really do a number on gasoline which has no easy, nor quick solution.
Quote:
Forecasts Put Louisiana Offshore Oil Port In Gustav's Eye
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES August 31, 2008 10:07 a.m:
NEW ORLEANS (Dow Jones)--The National Hurricane Center said early Sunday that Hurricane Gustav is expected to make landfall Monday afternoon near the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port.
The NHC said Gustav was expected to make landfall at about 1 p.m. CDT Monday at Timbalier Bay, only a few miles west of LOOP.
Severe damage to LOOP, which handles 10% of oil imports and is the only U.S. facility capable of offloading the largest tankers, would disrupt world oil shipping lanes. Such a disruption would force producers and refiners to scramble to find new ways to import oil from sources as diverse as Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. One tanker broker called a direct hit on LOOP "the only way that Gustav could have impact on the tanker market."
Refiners in Louisiana rely heavily on LOOP, while the port also sends some oil to the Chicago area along the Capline pipeline. Most Louisiana refineries have shut down ahead of Gustav, and could be out for weeks if the state's power grid takes a heavy hit from the storm.
Tankers have already begun diverting to areas of the Gulf outside of the storm's path. Some will be able to bring oil to shore by first transferring the crude to a smaller tanker that can navigate shallow-water ports, a process known as lightering.
WSJ _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 9:22 am Post subject: Re: Oil companies evacuate Gulf workers as Gustav looms
ColossalContrarian wrote:
DantesPeak wrote:
If these refinery shutdowns last more than a few days, we are facing the prospect of widespread gasoline shortages in the Gulf/Midwest in one week.
Can gasoline be shipped in from anywhere else?
The ability to divert gasoline output is very limited, as basically the entire oil and gasoline delivery system operates with minimal inventories and applies the concept of "just-in'time" delivery.
My WAG is that some gasoline deliveries between US points may have to go by barge, which is slower. Of the Mississippi River also becomes blocked, we may have a very bad distribution problem (I'm not making a prediction, I'm not a weather expert).
The only real solution to disaster is having Europe bail us out with their strategic supplies sent by tanker. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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