2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season

TommyJefferson

The new government levees are rated to 21 feet.

Tidal surge from the rotation pushing water ahead of it up the river is predicted at 7 feet.

Storm surge from the actual storm hit is predicted at 15 - 20 feet.

15 + 7 = 22 feet

Somebody in New Orleans is going swimming.

The political goal of re-making New Orleans into a Chocolate City will require many billions more dollars in federal support. Get out your checkbooks Americans. Socialism needs your support.
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TonisD

The last visible looks absolutely awful. Gustav has an image of a storm falling apart Smile

firestarter · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Mar 19, 2006 Posts: 1171

Ten hours of sunlight left. A lot can happen in that span of time, but at this rate the oil and gas infrastructure is looking like it may dodge a bullet here.
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Civilization: the biosphere's skin disease

Troyboy1208

I just looked at the latest infrared loop. After a rough night after cuba...to many Mojitos?...its eye feature has returned and looks to be putting itself together again. Even a cat 3 or cat 4 will do massive damage to the rigs. Also you have to add 15knots to the wind speed to the east of the storm, due to the fact that the storm is moving in a northerly direction.

wisconsin_cur · Moderator Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 3217

wisconsin_cur · Moderator Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 3217

firestarter · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Mar 19, 2006 Posts: 1171

Wisc, I meant intensity wise, a bullet might be dodged. I'm not sure what Cat the storm must be to impact rigs and platforms--general infrastructure. For all I know a cat 3 could decimate the oil and gas complex.
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Civilization: the biosphere's skin disease

Leanan · News Editor Joined: May 20, 2004 Posts: 4568

I don't see how anyone can look at the forecast this morning and think it's better.

Yes, it's now forecast to top out at Cat. 4 instead of Cat. 5. But it's now on track to hit New Orleans in the worst possible place, and to make landfall as a Cat. 4. If that happens, the levees won't hold.

It's also heading directly at the LOOP.

Shanny, love your map. I guess that's Gustav's fringes we're seeing now?
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wisconsin_cur · Moderator Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 3217

firestarter · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Mar 19, 2006 Posts: 1171

NYMEX is opening early for trading (I think 2pm eastern), so perhaps we can get an idea from the traders if the storm's intensity is only going to portend relatively temporary shut-in of production or major damage and significant down time.
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Civilization: the biosphere's skin disease

killJOY · Fission Joined: Feb 21, 2005 Posts: 2510 Location: ^NNE^

dohboi · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Dec 05, 2005 Posts: 1432

The cooler water along the coast could calm it, and the discussion over at the hurricane center says something about wind sheer possibly weakening it just before land fall. But no one should be counting on those big ifs. I also heard that the storm is moving faster (16mph? anyone have further info on this?), so it may not have time to "collapse" even if it goes briefly over some cooler water. The 20-30' storm surge on top of high tide sound quite frightening just by itself.

The absolute worst case scenario for oil production infrastructure is actually if it slows down and drifts west just off the coast. That, at least, does not seem likely at this point. But there's likely to be plenty of damage from the predicted track, from the looks of Shanny's excellent work (thanks for that).

ReverseEngineer · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Jul 16, 2008 Posts: 1452

I think the thinking is "if its nota Cat 5, we dodged a bullet". Well, as a Cat 4, Gustav basically levelled a 60 mile wide swath in Cuba, and this is without storm surge.

Far as the lack of an eye, crashing into Cuba and then going all night without the sun baking the top of the cloud cover, it lost convection for a while. The eye is reforming now and it will likely spin up through the rest of the day. Most of the forecasters have it hitting Lafourche Parish at around a Cat4, though Cat5 still isn't out of the question. Either way, it makes a direct hit on the LOOP, and NO still has a high probability of going under.

There just is no way as of now you can say we dodged a bullet. Gus will cause a LOT of damage as a Cat4, even as a Cat3. Is it Civilization Ending damage? Not in itself, but there is so much weakness in the economy this is the kind of thing that can tip it over the edge. Its unlikely we can get much help from the Europeans right now, and trying to pump all the water out of NO AGAIN is a very costly endeavor. However, leaving it to stew as a Cesspool when we need the port isn't a real good option either.

The Day After Tomorrow, if the LOOP is still functioning and NO levees hold, THEN we will have dodged a bullet. Right now, the Bullet is still hurtling in our direction.

Reverse Engineer

wisconsin_cur · Moderator Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 3217

Ardalla

Just woke up and checked radar. No eye as yet, ragged appearance and rising pressure. The 2pm report should confirm if it continues to weaken or stabilizes. NOAA is indicating some reintensification before landfall. They do not discuss why the eye collapsed other than mentioning southernly vertical shear, nor do they say the eye is forecast to reform.

Just have to wait and see what changes in the 2pm report.