Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 2:10 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
firestarter quoted:
Quote:
Short to intermediate term, it is highly likely that the slowing global economy will have far more effect on energy prices than peak oil."
That is where Mish is entirely wrong. Oil drives the economy, the economy is not driving oil. The economy is contracting because we have had 5 years of flat production, but the ERoEI has still been going down. The amount of energy available for the production of non-energy goods and services is decreasing. Thus, the economy declines because all economic activity requires energy. Available Energy
ReverseEngineer said:
Quote:
The Wall of Water is heading straight in that direction, and its not going to get significantly smaller even if Gus dropped right NOW to a Tropical Depression. Its a foregone conclusion the LOOP gets hit. Just a question of what it can stand up to.
Thanks RE. That is the point that I was trying to get across above. The storm surge is on its way, and it will do a lot of damage. How much is the only unknown variable!
Regardless, this storm is going to put a huge amount of pressure on our already slim inventory. No other outcome is possible.
Joined: Sep 29, 2005 Posts: 456 Location: I heard we are not the real America..Eugene, Oregon.
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 2:16 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
POAlex wrote:
Sometimes we get caught up in these events but come on guys, by reading this thread it seems like some people actually want a really big disaster to happen.
Think about it. Imagine if that was you living in an area where a disaster struck. Even worse, if people you loved were killed.
I'm glad to hear this storm is weakening, this is not entertainment.
Alex
The storm is going to happen. It's peaked interest in all sorts of people.
While not cheering for this thing to destroy everything in it's path, it is an interesting event and I for one enjoy watching the developments...I sure don't wish anyone harm..but it's going to happen. _________________ Punk is not really a style of music. It was more like a state of mind.
-Mike Watt
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 2:30 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
Quote:
HOUSTON (Reuters) - The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port said it was stopping all operations Sunday morning, including supplying refineries from onshore storage caverns, in order to evacuate employees Sunday afternoon ahead of Hurricane Gustav, a spokeswoman said.
"It's coming right at us," said LOOP spokeswoman Barb Hestermann of the forecast path for Gustav toward the Louisiana coast. "It looks like we're ground zero."
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 2:44 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
POAlex wrote:
Sometimes we get caught up in these events but come on guys, by reading this thread it seems like some people actually want a really big disaster to happen.
Think about it. Imagine if that was you living in an area where a disaster struck. Even worse, if people you loved were killed.
I'm glad to hear this storm is weakening, this is not entertainment.
Alex
Anybody who observes disasters and "doom events" and discusses the Dark Side has this moral quandary about fleshing out the "worst case" scenarios. Makes you seem rather ghoulish. On the other side, you have the Pollyannas looking for a ray of hope in an otherwise dismal landscape. They live in a perpetual fantasyland.
I make no apologies for being a Doomer, but I do try to write as factual account as I can looking realistically at what is happening before my eyes. If I thought Gus was falling apart, I would say so. He is NOT falling apart, latest IR photo shows a very clear eyewall. The very good Prof Mets on Storm2K still call for a gradual strengthening right up to landfall. The track remains as it has been for the last 36 hours, aimed dead on the LOOP. Buoys are recording 46' wave heights. The surge in the northeast quadrant remains near 20'. These are the FACTS I am looking at.
With these facts in mind, making projections about whether NO floods or not or whether the LOOP gets washed over still are somewhat difficult to say with 100% assurance, but certainly it looks very bad from where I sit. How bad it actually will be we won't KNOW until after the storm makes landfall, and probably not for a few more days after that. How many rigs will disappear? How much of the region loses power? What will the after effects be of a stalled storm dumping tons of rainfall for a few days? Can't predict any of these things with much certainty at the moment, but you can certainly NOT say we have dodged any bullet yet. Not by a long shot.
Joined: Mar 12, 2007 Posts: 1009 Location: As close as I can get to the beginning of the pipe.
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 2:44 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
I saw that post by Mish, Short, and I agree that he has got it backwards. He has never really internalized Peak Oil, and that hole in his framework is causing him to underestimate most events.
Nobody Panic, that was a great point about a one-two punch with Gustav and Hanna. About the time we're all shut-in, we could be needing large amounts of gasoline to evacuate some place on the east coast. Twenty five percent of the US oil production shut-in. My daughter just went back to school in Miami . . . .
Dolormin, it is ironic that McCain stole Obama's thunder with the Palin announcement. Now Mother Nature is stealing his thunder and using it someplace to the south. My mother-in-law has been getting some serious bands of weather for the past 24 hours in Sarasota. I guess none of the Republicans dare to repeat the bad optics from Katrina with a Republican convention of partying fat cats in St. Paul juxtaposed against death and destruction in coastal Louisiana.
Although weakening of the storm will diminish the surge, the fact that some of the lowest parts of the low country on the coast are in the NE/upper right quadrant for predicted landfall, along with some critical infrastructure will make the effects of even a Cat 2 or 3 bad.
Oh, and that is pretty funny, MS.
Mad Scientist wrote:
as a God fearing Christian you shouldn't be surprised to see God bringing down his terrible judgement on a society which has abandoned him for the pleasures of the flesh. So please, stop crying like a single mom at her son's first peewee football game.
_________________ "When fascism comes to America it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross." --Sinclair Lewis
Joined: Oct 04, 2004 Posts: 5709 Location: Body in OK, Heart in TX
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 5:07 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
Hey, I know I contributed to this tangent earlier, and I'm sorry. Can we please get and stay back on topic now? This is a pretty imminent hurricane strike here. Thanks.
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3626 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 5:23 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
That wave-height map's worth seeing in full:
There are two drillships in the area that are possibly dealing with 30 foot waves - already. One of 'em's still working on Thunderhorse. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
Joined: Oct 04, 2004 Posts: 5709 Location: Body in OK, Heart in TX
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 5:27 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
Presentation looking better on latest satellite images. Looks like it's intensifying. The photos and reports coming from Cuba show major damage. I just read gusts over 210 mph were recorded there.
Also, if you look at the radar loop on the link I posted before, the storm appears to be moving a little to the right of the forecast track. That's bad for New Orleans. _________________ "Every junkie's like a setting sun..." - Neil Young
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 5:34 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
According to the latest model updates, Gustav's path has shifted slightly to the east, or closer to NOLA. The following refineries might be underwater according to the latest storm surge projections:
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3915 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 5:43 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
To answer my own question from earlier I turned up a couple useful links about the shore erosion which came from Karina in 2005 Nat Geo and USGS Photos were the best. Sadly I do not think anything effective has been done about this particular problem since then, instead all of the effort was focused on repairing NO and other cities directly. That means this time around there are even less barriiers between the Storm Surge and the people in those cities.
Isn't democracy brilliant in how it allocates resources? The money went to where the people were before the next election instead of to where it needed to go to keep the people safe long term. _________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 5:43 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
TheDude wrote:
There are two drillships in the area that are possibly dealing with 30 foot waves - already. One of 'em's still working on Thunderhorse.
I doubt any service ships are in the area, just the rigs are left to weather the storm.
The wave heights here are the most significant aspect far as the rigs are concerned, even more than the wind speed. It appears the biggest waves are in the heart of rig country right now.
Anybody know where we might find some data on the period of these waves? Is it somewhere on the Hydrologic portion of the NOAA website? I can't find it.
I sure wish the Oil Companies would leave a Camera active on each rig and have it up on a website, like the Traffic Cams. I know its ghoulish of me, but I sure would like to see how one of those rigs handles 40' waves. That has to be something to see, especially if it starts to break up.
Joined: Oct 04, 2004 Posts: 5709 Location: Body in OK, Heart in TX
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 5:54 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season
ReverseEngineer wrote:
Anybody know where we might find some data on the period of these waves? Is it somewhere on the Hydrologic portion of the NOAA website? I can't find it.
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