Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 1:15 pm Post subject: U.S. economy grows at 3.3% - recession?
Quote:
US GDP rebounds with 3.3% growth
The US economy grew at a revised 3.3% annually in the second quarter of 2008, the Commerce Department said, much higher than its first estimate of 1.9%.
The rebound was linked to strong US exports, helped by the weak dollar, while government tax rebates also boosted consumer spending.
[...]
'No recession'
The data showed that exports grew at an annualised rate of 13.2%, higher than the government's initial estimate of 9.2%.
Imports fell at a rate of 7.6% as the US economic slowdown reduced demands for goods made overseas.
The improved trade balance added 3.1 percentage points to second-quarter GDP, the biggest since 1980.
The slowdown in the housing market was evident, as builders cut back and businesses reduced their spending.
Consumer spending, boosted by the government's $600 tax rebate payments, rose by 1.7%, slightly higher than the previous quarter's 1.5%.
Some observers said that the figures lent support to the argument that the US was not heading for a recession.
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 1:16 pm Post subject: Re: U.S. economy grows at 3.3% - recession?
Chocolate rations increased to 12 grams per party member. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 1:21 pm Post subject: Re: U.S. economy grows at 3.3% - recession?
The US has been in recession for a couple years now. Gvt statistics are outright lies. Watch Crash Course if you wanna understand fuzzy numbers better. Or, just keep eatin' that yummy cake. Ewe seem to like it. _________________ "The future power is manpower"
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 2:24 pm Post subject: Re: U.S. economy grows at 3.3% - recession?
joeltrout wrote:
I think the definition of recession is two back-to-back quarters of negative GDP.
This has NOT happened and we have not been or will be in a recession unless oil prices skyrocket sometime soon.
i hear from business owners in various parts of the country, "worst i've seen the market in 25 years", for example that was from a programmer job shop recruiter in Seattle this last week.
the GDP numbers count dollar sales and do not account accurately for inflation (inflation is not 3%, it's greater than 10%). back out the numbers and count the actual amount of goods being produced, the total barrels of oil, the generic stuff at Walmart.
measured in terms of object volume, the US economy is in contraction.
it might be a good practice for the government to fake the numbers. not wanting everybody to "head for the exits" at the same time. _________________ http://www.LASIK-Flap.com/ ~ Health Warning about LASIK Eye Surgery
Joined: Mar 25, 2008 Posts: 880 Location: Alif Lam Mim
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 2:29 pm Post subject: Re: U.S. economy grows at 3.3% - recession?
Quote:
I think the definition of recession is two back-to-back quarters of negative GDP.
By that definition, Weimar Germany and Zimbabwe never experienced recessions. No nation produced such wealth as these two!
That is a commonly quoted, but poor definition of a recession. It's a good rule of thumb, but can't be used to accurately describe a recession.
Quote:
the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines it more broadly as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."
Wikipedia _________________ Riches are not from abundance of worldly goods, but from a contented mind.
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 2:33 pm Post subject: Re: U.S. economy grows at 3.3% - recession?
joeltrout said:
Quote:
I think the definition of recession is two back-to-back quarters of negative GDP.
If you believe the official government numbers stop by my place, I have a bridge I’d like to get rid of.
Real numbers:
unemployment 14%
GDP -1%
inflation 12%
All the rest are make believe for the stupid sheep. It keeps them from milling around to much. This whole scenario goes into the same category as WMD in Iraq, “its contained”, and “they hate us for our freedom”. You would think that at some point people would figure out that they are being lied to.
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 2:52 pm Post subject: Re: U.S. economy grows at 3.3% - recession?
For many it is a recession because they are being hurt themselves.
If I had bought a house I couldn't pay for and lost it then I would consider this a recession but for those of us that made good decisions then it is not that bad. Maybe even pick up a few rental properties and cheap stocks along the way.
For those who live beyond their means then yes it might be a recession for them.
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 2:54 pm Post subject: Re: U.S. economy grows at 3.3% - recession?
Check out shadowstats.com.
The numbers are recalculated using the formulas the got used in the before time. Take out the hedonics (new math), put food and fuel back into the equation, stop counting imaginary/estimated illegal immigrant labor, the numbers change real fast.
The US has been in a recession for nearly 4 years.
A depression has no official definition but would include:
-unusual increases in unemployment
-restriction of credit
-shrinking output and investment
-price deflation or hyperinflation
-numerous bankruptcies
-reduced amounts of trade and commerce
-violent currency devaluations
Using the numbers the government reports, everything is rosy. Talk to any business owner, manager, paid employee, or homemaker, you get a different story. The govt is feeding us a pile of crap, having perverted the statistics to the point they are meaningless. _________________ If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face--for ever."
-George Orwell, 1984
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 3:17 pm Post subject: Re: U.S. economy grows at 3.3% - recession?
Kpeavey....
Good post. I second your recommendation of shadowstats.com. I've been going to the site for quite a while now. The stats that the Gov't releases are heavily manipulated. Add to that Gov't market and currency intervention and you get what we have now. I believe after the election it will become clear that we are headed for a hyperinflationary depression.
Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4721 Location: Boston, MA
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 4:34 pm Post subject: Re: U.S. economy grows at 3.3% - recession?
Look at the opening post.
Quote:
US GDP rebounds with 3.3% growth
The data showed that exports grew at an annualised rate of 13.2%, higher than the government's initial estimate of 9.2%.
Imports fell at a rate of 7.6% as the US economic slowdown reduced demands for goods made overseas.
The improved trade balance added 3.1 percentage points to second-quarter GDP, the biggest since 1980.
The domestic economy grew by a mere .2% in the 2nd quarter (annualized rate). With inflation fudging, that's probably closer to a negative 1% contraction rate.
The import/export picture added the rest.
Imports CRASHED and exports SOARED.
The result was a big improvement in the trade balance which lead to an improvement in GDP.
The consumer economy and the domestic production for domestic consumption economy barely made any headway in the 2nd quarter. And again, factor in a more realistic inflation figure and they actually contracted. _________________ "www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
Joined: Feb 23, 2005 Posts: 513 Location: Winnipeg
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 6:56 pm Post subject: Re: U.S. economy grows at 3.3% - recession?
MadScientist wrote:
The US has been in recession for a couple years now. Gvt statistics are outright lies. Watch Crash Course if you wanna understand fuzzy numbers better. Or, just keep eatin' that yummy cake. Ewe seem to like it.
Excellent link. Gotta love the exponential growth bit...How much monster grass in the tundra do we need to overcome that eh Lorenzo?
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 7:45 pm Post subject: Re: U.S. economy grows at 3.3% - recession?
Sure, just change the GDP deflator and you can get any outcome you want. The GDP deflator was somewhere around 3% last year when inflation was also 2-3%, makes sense right? This year even though CPI went up to 5.6%, the deflator DROPPED to 1.2%. Can anyone possibly believe this? And this is even with all the understatements of CPI, like the "seasonal adjustment" they introduced to gas prices which said the price of gasoline fell on a seasonally adjusted basis this spring when it actually went from $3 to $4. That 33% increase was a "seasonally adjusted decline"? WTF? So CPI is obviously understated.
Eight months of NEGATIVE job creation (takes ~130,000 new jobs to keep up with population growth). Stated unemployment at 5.7%. Include the "marginally employed" and it's over 10%.
Stock market dropped 20%.
Home prices down 15% nation-wide in a year.
3-month and 6-month T-bonds below 2%. All T-bonds well below the stated inflation rate.
Bank failures high and rising.
Vehicle miles driven and gasoline demand have dropped.
Airlines cutting routes, laying off.
This is only not a recession if you use a meaningless definition and manipulate the data.
Posted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:26 pm Post subject: Re: U.S. economy grows at 3.3% - recession?
Inflation was 50% in the same quarter. 3.3% productivity growth is a long way from break even, considering most of that was foreign labor resold under domestic names. _________________ People first, then things, then dollars.
There will be enslavement, cannibalism, & zombie invasions.
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